(Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Tyler_Lockett_with_fan%2C_Feb_2019_3.jpg/800px-Tyler_Lockett_with_fan%2C_Feb_2019_3.jpg under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated wide receivers in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but at the skill positions, I think three years is plenty to see what a player does. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best wide receiver value lies.
Tyler Lockett ADP and AAV:
Standard: 22nd among WRs, 50th overall
PPR: 22nd among WRs, 53rd overall
Tyler Lockett Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $24
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 11 | 165.4 | 22 | 10.3 |
| 2017 | 56 | 73.3 | 71 | 4.6 |
| 2016 | 57 | 83.1 | 71 | 5.5 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 16 | 222 | 24 | 14 |
| 2017 | 57 | 118 | 68 | 7.4 |
| 2016 | 65 | 124.1 | 74 | 8.3 |
FANTASY USAGE
| Targets | Targets Per Game | Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Catch Rate | |
| 2018 | 70 | 4.4 | 57 | 3.6 | 81.4% |
| 2017 | 71 | 4.4 | 45 | 2.8 | 63.4% |
| 2016 | 66 | 4.4 | 41 | 2.7 | 62.1% |
Overview: The tables above speak for themselves. 2018 was a breakout year for Tyler Lockett. He more than doubled his production from 2017, but fell just shy of the 1,000 yard mark. What he did do, is score a whopping 10 TDs on 57 receptions. Lockett is a speedy, deep threat, and only had six red zone targets all of 2018. In other words, Lockett’s TD rate is probably not repeatable. He could very well score 10+ TDs in 2019, but he’s going to need more than 57 catches to do it. The most shocking number above is the 81.4% catch rate! That was good for 4th among all WRs. If 2018 wasn’t a fluke, and showed some developmental progression for Lockett, he will continue to be a consistent weapon in the Seahawks offense.
Strategy: Our Tyler Lockett Auction Value ($200 Budget): $25
Don’t go all in on Tyler Lockett. It will be very difficult for him to maintain those reception and TD rates. You should look for him in the 4th or 5th round. He takes a hit in PPR leagues, especially after the Seahawks had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL last year.
Best Case Scenario: Russell Wilson starts throwing 40+ times per game, targeting Lockett 7-8 times, and he turns in a 1,200 yard, 8 TD season.
Worst Case Scenario: Lockett’s floor is pretty high. Worst case is a repeat of last years catch and yardage totals with half the TDs.
