(Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/painting-with-pixels/42584602194 under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)
As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated running backs in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but at the skill positions, I think three years is plenty to see what a player does. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best wide receiver value lies.
Michael Thomas ADP and AAV:
Standard: 4th among wide receivers. 14th overall.
PPR: 3rd among wide receivers. 10th overall.
Michael Thomas Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $46
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 8th | 190.5 | 9th | 11.9 |
| 2017 | 10th | 145.1 | 11th | 9.7 |
| 2016 | 11th | 142.1 | 13th | 10.2 |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 6th | 315.5 | 6th | 19.7 |
| 2017 | 5th | 243.1 | 6th | 16.2 |
| 2016 | 11th | 224.1 | 10 | 16 |
FANTASY USAGE
| Targets | Targets Per Game | Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Catch Rate | |
| 2018 | 147 | 9.2 | 125 | 7.8 | 85.0% |
| 2017 | 149 | 9.3 | 104 | 6.5 | 69.8% |
| 2016 | 121 | 8.1 | 92 | 6.1 | 76.0% |
Overview: Since Michael Thomas has entered the league, he has been top ten in catches and yards. Thomas has never not been a WR1 at the end of the year. Michael Thomas is a model of consistency across a season. However, within the season, his numbers are more erratic. Last year, he had 5 games where he ended up top five. But Thomas also had 5 games where he didn’t even finish as a WR3. Moreover, there are concerns about the inevitable decline of Drew Brees, as evidenced by his player profile.
Strategy: Our Michael Thomas Auction Value ($200 Budget): $52
Despite my concerns about Thomas, there is no denying his talent and his ability. He caught an astounding 85% of his targets. He is undoubtedly one of the best receivers in the NFL and you want that on your team. While Michael Thomas has been a WR1, he has yet to finish top three. This could very well be the year.
Best Case Scenario: Michael Thomas ends the year as a top-three receiver.
Worst Case Scenario: The decline of Drew Brees we’ve all been waiting for happens in 2019 and he takes Michael Thomas down with him.
