As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best quarterback value lies.
Update 8/27: He retired. Just gonna go ahead and cross all this out.
Andrew Luck ADP and AAV
Standard: 2nd among QBs, 47th overall
PPR: 2nd among QBs, 46th overall
Andrew luck Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $23
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 5th | 327.1 | 6th | 20.4 |
| 2017 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2016 | 4th | 307.6 | 5th | 20.5 |
Overview: You ever have a friend or neighbor that screws up more than you do, but somehow ends up in a better situation? That’s my relationship with Indianapolis Colts fans. When Peyton Manning got injured in 2011, needing several bolts in his neck and a lightning strike to get reanimated, the Colts went 1-15. They used their #1 draft pick to snag Luck, the best quarterback prospect of the past decade. Having watched my Oakland Raiders spin their 2-14 record to select children’s cough syrup addict Jamarcus Russell in 2007, the Colts’ shrewdness really stung. I’m also pretty sure Luck is making a play for my wife, as he posted this pic during his 2017 recovery season:
Not only is that my wife’s favorite book, she also found her copy in a dumpster, as Luck seems to have done, here. That’s too much coincidence to ignore.
Taking that all into account, it should be a monumental endorsement that my answer to the question, “should I draft Andrew Luck?” Is “YES YES YES!”
Strategy: Our Andrew Luck Auction Value ($200 Budget): $2
[Update August 20]: Andrew Luck has a vague injury that we aren’t sure the status of it, or if he will be ready week one. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Luckily, he plays the deepest position in fantasy football. He’s currently going in the seventh round, and if he continues to drop, is a great player to pair with whatever QB ends up being available in the thirteenth or fourteenth round (Kirk Cousins, for example). You just have to wait out that pesky injury.
Last season, fantasy football pundits were understandably nervous about Luck, who had missed an entire season due to injury. He rewarded those bold enough to grab him with a top 5 finish. Now he has a whole year of experience with head coach Frank Reich, a veteran receiver in TY Hilton, and an offensive line that no longer dissolves when you pour water on it. Consistency is key with quarterback, and in 2018 Luck only had two games where he scored fewer than 15 points. Admittedly, one of those games was in the fantasy football semifinals, but I chalk that up to the fact that I had Luck in 2/3 of my leagues and he hates me (but loves my wife). According to USA Today, Luck finished each week as a top 10 QB almost 70% of the time, second to only Patrick Mahomes.
ESPN currently has Luck going for $5 in auction leagues. That’s a steal. I have him going for $15 in my auction values chart which, unlike the rest of the industry, isn’t made by doing snake draft rankings then applying a useless conversion formula. If Andrew Luck is going for under $13, or if he’s there in the 5th round of snake drafts (his ADP has slipped from the fourth to the fifth round in the past month, so it’s quite likely he’ll continue to fall), grab him and don’t look back at the other fantasy owners you will leave in the dust.
Best Case Scenario: Luck continues to grow and finishes as a consistent top 3 QB
Worst Case Scenario: He freaking retires 10 days before the season starts!!
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