Andrew Luck is back! Does that mean that the Indianapolis Colts have finally stepped back from the precipice of the dumpster fire tier of the NFL? I mean, probably not, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get you some fantasy football value!
For the 2018 season, we will explore a 2018 fantasy football sleeper, breakout (or bounce back), and bust from every NFL team. First, a sleeper can leap into top-tier production at a bargain basement draft day price. A breakout is available in the middle rounds and will return positive value of at least a couple rounds. Bounce backs are normally helpful players coming off a down year or years whom you can acquire for a song. Busts are the worst case scenario: a player who drastically underperforms his draft position. While they may not be a wasted pick, you definitely don’t want them on your team.
2018 Fantasy Football Sleeper – Eric Ebron, Tight End (ADP 194, TE20)
A lot of people are eager to bury Eric Ebron. It’s understandable, he burned a lot of people in his first four seasons in the league. The former #10 overall pick is a fantasy football sleeper mainstay, but he’s never broken out. However, he’s been much better than people would have you believe, given his yearly finishes. Throw aside his rookie season, as you should do with all tight ends, and he’s finished #13, #14 and #13 at tight end.
He now goes to Indianapolis and Andrew Luck, who has utilized two quarterbacks in the past. I believe he will continue to produce in this system, especially considering the Colts have mostly nothing at wide receiver behind T.Y. Hilton. Ebron’s going as TE20, despite ending the season with the third-most fantasy points over the last five weeks of the 2017 season. He’s going to surprise people.
2018 Fantasy Football Bounce Back – Andrew Luck, Quarterback (ADP 82, QB9)
This is pretty easy. When Andrew Luck is healthy, he’s a top-five quarterback in the league. Health has been the problem. He missed all of last season recovering from surgery and seems as though he’s back. He’s still knocking off the rust, but once he’s rolling… he’s going to roll all over the league.
Quick reminder on Andrew Luck for his career, since we’ve seen to have forgotten. Every sixteen games he’s averaged 4,361 yards, 30 scores and 16 picks. His 19.4 fantasy points per game on his career would have been QB7 last year. He’ll beat that this year with a year off to fully heal.
2018 Fantasy Football Bust – Marlon Mack, Running Back (ADP 89, RB37)
The Colts backfield is a freaking mess, and anyone telling you they know who will be the lead back at season’s end is lying to you. With a situation like this, nobody should go within the top-100 picks. Throw in that Mack is already nursing an injury and things get even messier.
Take a step back, clear your mind and just think about a backfield with: Robert Turbin, Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and Christine Michael. Now imagine taking any of those guys top-100 with any sort of confidence. Mack might be the best one in the backfield, though he runs like Michael Flatley, which is disconcerting. I just wouldn’t invest a top-100 pick in anyone tasked with carrying the football for such a crowded backfield.
For more AFC South 2018 fantasy football sleeper, bust, and breakout candidates, click here: