Fantasy Football: Far Too Early Quarterback Sleepers

This is the first year that I have put up a fantasy football quarterback ranking, even a top-ten. It feels a bit disingenuous, then to put out sleepers and busts lists. However, that is exactly what I am doing and if you want to stop me, then the door is right behind you, bub. There isn’t exactly a huge market for 2018 fantasy football drafts in February, but runs them 365 days a year. If you want to mock draft now, they’re your joint. Data is pulled from their drafts but is unlikely to reflect reality come 2018 real fantasy football draft season. Too much will change between now and then. Without further ado, some 2018 fantasy football quarterback sleepers. For this, I only looked at guys going after QB12 (backups in most fantasy leagues).

Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (9.05, QB13)
The eternal and eternally underrated Rivers is never a sexy option, but he brings sexy back every year for the Chargers. Ehhh… nope. Phil Rivers has finished outside the top ten at QB twice since becoming the full-time starter, and those came in 2006 and 2012. Another year older and with more time with his weapons, including sophomore Mike Williams, will give Rivers the boost he needs to once again be a top-ten quarterback going outside the top twelve.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (10.03, QB16)
There are two ways to look at a Marcus Mariota rebound, and either path works out well. First, his new offensive coordinator is Matt LaFleur, who the Titans poached from the Rams this season. You might know the Rams from a little thing called 2018’s most potent offense.  That’s the gut reason, the coordinator reason. Also, there’s nerd stuff: math. Marcus Mariota was overwhelmingly terrible by his own standards (2.9% touchdown rate, career rate 5.5% and 3.3% interception rate, 2.3% career rate). Simple regression to his career standard means that he will be in for a bunch more touchdowns and far fewer interceptions this year. Requiescat in Pace, exotic smash mouth.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (10.12, QB19)
Fantasy football drafters are suffering from the worst case of recency bias possible with Prescott, given that he cratered hard without Ezekiel Elliott last year. Good news, Zeke is back, and so is good Dak. Prescott was night-and-day without Zeke, going for 22.82 points a game with Elliott and 15.47 without him. Let’s just keep Zeke away from Mardi Gras this year and everything should go just fine with Prescott.

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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