The NFL season is now halfway over, and we still have changes occurring in usage and opportunities for NFL players. This week, the fortunes changed for three fantasy-relevant players due to injury and opportunity changes on the roster. Let’s dive into three such players to determine what to do with them moving forward.
Has Colston Loveland Arrived?
Colston Loveland had the play of the day in the Bears-Bengals tilt, bouncing off would-be tacklers for the game-winning touchdown with under 30 seconds to go in the wild and woolly contest. He finished the game with seven targets, six catches, 118 yards, and two touchdowns in this effort. The long catch and run accounted for one catch, 58 yards, and a score of that, so even if that bonkers last-second play doesn’t happen, he still ends the game with five catches for sixty yards and a score. But has he arrived? Is he a player that we can start next week with confidence, and in the future?
Loveland finished the game with 34 routes run, on 45 Caleb Williams dropbacks (75.6%). He also played on 65-of-80 offensive snaps (81.2%). The snaps are barely a career-high, and the routes run are not a career-high, so we haven’t seen a breakthrough here. Luckily, however, we are seeing a continuation of what we saw in week eight against Baltimore. Loveland played 81% of snaps in week eight, the first time he topped 66% of snaps, and he ran a route on 84.6% of dropbacks, the first time he was over 56% in his career.
So, these are all encouraging developments from the rookie tight end, and they come on back-to-back games of encouraging usage trends. While I don’t expect massive games from him in the future, he has three decent games on the horizon. He has the Giants next week, who gave up two touchdowns to Dallas Goedert last week, and are a top-three matchup per my matchups model. He follows that up with Minnesota, who Sam LaPorta dominated in week nine (and who are a top-eight matchup), and the Steelers, who allow the second-most fantasy points to tight ends on the year.
At 23% rostered, I would expect Colston Loveland to headline waiver wire articles this week. It’s well-deserved, and the Cole Kmet injury could make this breakthrough stick long term.
What Do We Do With Chuba Hubbard?
Head Coach Dave Canales announced this week that the Panthers would move more towards Rico Dowdle in the future, finally recognizing that Chuba Hubbard simply does not have the same juice as Dowdle right now. Week nine’s usage reflected this notion, as Dowdle played 42 snaps, ran 12 routes, and handled 25 carries. Hubbard, on the other hand, played only 13 snaps, ran four routes, and handled five carries. The production was expectedly disparate: Dowdle finished with 28.1 fantasy points and 141 total yards, while Hubbard finished with 1.7 points and 17 total yards.
While we expected a 1a/1b situation with Hubbard and Dowdle, it was clear that Rico Dowdle was the RB1 on this team in every aspect, and Dowdle has almost no role left outside of a change-of-pace role. But there are some extenuating circumstances. Rico Dowdle had his breakout games because of a calf injury to Hubbard, which is likely lingering. So, this may be a fluid situation that will tilt back toward Hubbard if he proves he deserves more touches. For now, I wouldn’t drop Chuba Hubbard, but I definitely wouldn’t start him until I see something from him that proves he can provide top-24 production. As of now, he isn’t even getting the opportunity to do so, and it’s an intentional change, according to the head coach.
Is Romeo Doubs a Must-Start Wide Receiver?
As I write this (pending both Sunday Night Football & Monday Night Football), Romeo Doubs is WR17 on the week, after finishing with seven catches for 91 yards, on ten targets, in the shocking Panthers win over the Packers. This marks his seventh-straight top-forty finish, and his fifth time finishing inside the top-36 in the last seven games. He’s become the most reliable weapon in the Packers’ passing game outside of Tucker Kraft, and the Tucker Kraft ACL tear makes him the best passing game weapon they have.
Since the Packers’ week five bye, Doubs has 33 targets, which paces out to 140 targets over the course of a season. That is an elite volume of opportunity for Doubs, whose worst game over the last four weeks ranked as WR40 on the week. All of the numbers point toward Doubs as a solid weekly start in 3WR leagues. But, in 2WR leagues, the volume is such that I would be perfectly fine leaving him on the bench.
It’s worth seeing if he’s available in your leagues, as Doubs is just 76% rostered. The Tucker Kraft injury opens up an intriguing target volume, and Doubs could take advantage of that to rocket up into the WR2 ranks.
