Last week was a blood bath, and I am upfront about the fact that it was literally the worst week of fantasy football that I have ever experienced. It wasn’t just the Byepocalypse; every game was a blowout, stymying production across the board. I am in well over a dozen fantasy football leagues, and I won three matchups. I also repeatedly told people not to start Kayshon Boutte on our Sunday Morning Start or Sit stream. But let’s shake off that nonsense and trek out once again unto the breach, with the week nine streamers. To make this list, a player must be available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues. Every position has a deep dive player available in at least 90% of leagues, as well. Roster rates are as of Wednesday after waivers ran.
QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence (46% rostered) at Las Vegas
The Golden Haired Boy hasn’t lived up to my expectations this season, but he hasn’t been a complete disaster at the position. In fact, he’s been top-fifteen in his last three games, and he’s done it passing and rushing, showing off his complete skill set. Lawrence has 90 pass attempts in his previous two games, and the Jaguars are fourth in passing rate over expectation, meaning they are slinging that rock. Losing Travis Hunter will undoubtedly hurt, but the Raiders are a disaster and present the sixth-best quarterback matchup this week.
Sam Darnold (44% rostered) at Washington
Darnold has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, ranking inside the top-five in both completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and expected points added per play (EPA/Play). Compositing these together, per RBSDM.com, puts him as the fourth-best passing quarterback in the league this year. He’s produced for fantasy football, as well, posting 295 or more passing yards in two of his last three games, and tossing seven scores in that time. The Commanders have a terrible defense that provides almost no resistance, and are the fourth-best quarterback matchup this week.
Mac Jones (9% rostered) at N.Y. Giants
Mac Attack gets one more chance under center, as the 49ers are working Brock Purdy along slowly. Makes sense, they rushed him back, and he immediately missed a month and a half. The 49ers had their doors blown off last week by an exceptional Houston Texans defense, but despite that, McCorkle still finished as QB14 with 193 passing yards and two touchdowns. Last week was an aberration, as well, as Mac Jones led the NFL in passing yards per game headed into that contest, so the Niners will likely be slinging that rock again against a much worse defense. The Giants allow the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and are the #8 quarterback matchup in my passing game model… and will have backup corners playing.
RUNNING BACKS
NOTE: Kyle Monangai started on this list, but his roster rate shot up over 50% with the news that D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson would miss this weekend. Go for him first, as his matchup is incredible against the woeful Bengals’ run defense. But we still have three other guys below if he’s not available. I replaced him with Tyjae Spears, so you know where Spears ranks in the hierarchy.
Bam Knight (45% rostered) at Dallas
Bam Knight’s roster rate likely dropped due to last week’s Byepocalypse and the roster crunch that it created: he’s a short-term play until Trey Benson returns, and after all, you had to get Marvin Mims in to stream last week. Knight has been a team-saving floor play for folks needing running backs, posting 9.4 or more PPR points in all three games he’s played this season. But his touch volume is steadily increasing, and should peak this week, after posting 5, 12, and 17 touches in the last three games. He only had one good matchup in those starts, as well. And the Dallas Cowboys defense (the worst in the NFL) allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs, so that won’t be a problem this week. The Dallas defense might not ring any bells, but you might remember some of their recent hits like “Rico Dowdle rushing for 200 yards” and “RJ Harvey scoring three touchdowns.” They’ve given up at least 33 PPR points to running backs in two of the last three games. Bam Knight is a must-play on Monday Night Football.
Tyjae Spears (42% rostered) versus L.A. Chargers
Spears had a great game last week, amassing 17.2 PPR points on only 12 touches. IN three games, he has eleven catches and ranks eighth in true yards per carry, as well as fantasy points per opportunity. So, he’s getting the target volume to thrive in PPR as well as the rushing efficiency to make him slightly more than a scam back. He has six fewer opportunities in the last three games than fellow backfield mate Tony Pollard, but he has at least 52% of snaps in two of the previous three games, dropping Pollard below 50% of snaps played in those games, so there might be a turning of the tide in Tennessee. The Chargers aren’t an exceptional matchup, and the Titans might struggle to move the ball, but all of that tells me that Spears, their pass-catching back, will get more play and more PPR scam volume.
Brashard Smith (10%) at Buffalo
Isiah Pacheco is week-to-week with a PCL sprain, and the Chiefs ruled him out for week nine with that injury, so Smith should get more opportunities to produce this week in the second-highest over/under of the week. Before last week, when the Chiefs went up big on the Commanders and sat on the ball, he had between three and five targets in four straight games, giving him a floor play. However, he is limited by Kareem Hunt, a goal-line back. But he still has an opportunity to break a long one, as the Bills are seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, partially because they lead the NFL in 10+ yard rushes allowed per game.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tre Tucker (37% rostered) versus Jacksonville
Tre Tucker has been wildly inconsistent this season, but the Jaguars are a top-ten matchup in fantasy points per game, and a top-ten matchup on the week in my passing defense model. They have seen eight wide receivers get at least eight targets against them, and seven of them scored 11.1 or more fantasy points. Tucker has had three other top-ten matchups this season: his three-touchdown explosion against Washington, his 11.1 PPR game against Indianapolis, and his 12 PPR game against Tennessee. With Brock Bowers back for this one, and Travis Hunter out, Jacksonville will struggle to key in on Tucker, and he’s likely to get at least one big play, making him a perfectly cromulent start this week in deeper leagues.
Alec Pierce (26% rostered) at Pittsburgh
The Alec Pierce recommendations will continue until morale approves, but this week is yet another great matchup for Pierce, the downfield target for Indiana Jones, FKA Danny Dimez. The Colts offense is a wagon, and the Steelers defense is what they’ll be draggin’ this week. They’ve spent a billion dollars on a defense that can’t stop a thing, giving up 68 points over the last two weeks. The Steelers’ defense also gives up huge numbers to receivers, allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the previous five weeks. With injuries depleting the secondary, it’s unlikely that they can stop this passing attack. At full strength, they allow the third-most yards per target and sixth-highest YPT specifically on 15+ air yard passes (14.58 yards per target). Alec Pierce ranks fourth in the NFL in 15+ air yard targets per game, meaning that he will have plenty of opportunity to produce this week.
Jaylin Noel (7% rostered) versus Denver
The Texans’ rookie has 13 targets, nine catches, and 140 yards in the last two games, and is likely to headline waiver wire articles this week. Denver, on paper, is a bad matchup. But in reality, it’s that Patrick Surtain blankets the #1 receiver, and Riley Moss hides his production, allowing pass interference penalties. With Surtain out, and Riley Moss likely getting apoplectic at Nico Collins’ pass interference penalties all game, this could be a big Jaylin Noel week. His involvement has ticked up lately, and he likely jumped Christian Kirk in the pecking order this week. This could be the beginning of a second-half breakout, so even if you don’t believe in Noel against Denver, he’s well worth a stash this week, and is free in 93% of leagues.
TIGHT ENDS
Juwan Johnson (34% rostered) at L.A. Rams
On paper, the Rams are a bad matchup, as they allow the eleventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but that’s mostly noise from target volume. They haven’t played teams that focus on the tight end this season, with only one TE getting six or more targets against them through eight weeks. That was Jake Tonges on Thursday Night Football, who caught seven balls for 41 yards and a score. So, they allow tight ends to catch the ball, they rally to the point of the catch, and stem off yards after the catch. That’s okay —we don’t need YAC when we are looking for PPR scam floors, and with 15 targets over the last two games, Johnson provides that floor. With Spencer Rattler, who pushes the ball downfield, benched for Tyler Shough, the name of the game becomes release valves, and an athletic young tight end is as good a release valve as he will get in this one.
Theo Johnson (29% rostered) versus San Francisco
The Niners allow the tenth-fewest fantasy points to tight end, but that math doesn’t quite make sense. They’ve allowed double-digit days to Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, Brenton Strange, Hunter Long, Trey McBride & Juwan Johnson so far this season. They will also be without Fred Warner for the rest of the season, making their tight end defense even worse. Johnson has 22 targets over his last four games, getting him that 5+ target floor that I love to exploit in streaming matchups. He’s evolving into a viable target for Jaxson Dart, and one that should have a good game with Dart’s BFF and release valve Cam Scattebo on the shelf for the rest of the season. The Giants don’t have an alpha wide receiver to siphon targets, so they should distribute through the passing game, and Johnson will benefit from said redistribution.
AJ Barner (9% rostered) at Washington
Barner has 10 or more PPR points in four of his last six games, which is a wild thing to think about because nobody is talking about this. He struggled against Houston before his Bye week, but they allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, so that wasn’t shocking. The Commanders’ defense is notably terrible, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends and ranking fourth-best this week in my passing game model. Long story short: The Commanders allowed 18 or more PPR points to three of the last tight ends to face them, and now AJ Barner faces them. Pretty simple, to me, at least.
