The Buffalo Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs in a heartbreaking fashion once again. Once again, the NFL implemented a rule change to try to keep the Bills from having their hearts broken. The 2025 iteration of the Bills involves reigning MVP Josh Allen throwing to a bevy of #2 and #3 receivers, as well as a couple of tight ends. The Bills start their Sisyphian task of trying to topple Patrick Mahomes, and we try to read the tea leaves to determine the values in this offense.
Overdrafted:
Dalton Kincaid, Tight End (TE14, 125 Overall)
Speaking of Sisyphus, people are once again tossing rationality out the window and snagging Dalton Kincaid in drafts. I am still not sure why; the opportunity isn’t there, the production isn’t there, and there isn’t much to indicate that will change anytime soon, at least as long as Dawson Knox keeps trading his sheep for Josh Allen’s ore.
Dalton Kincaid ran the 27th-most routes at tight end last season, ranked 32nd in tight end snap share, and was 26th in receptions and 28th in receiving yards. The Bills’ sophomore has some things you might like; he’s second in unrealized air yards (thanks to being 27th in true catch rate), but 18th in yards per route run and 17th in yards per team pass attempt. He’s also outside the top-20 in yards per reception and outside the top-30 in yards per target.
Kincaid doesn’t have anything thrilling about his profile. I genuinely don’t understand this ADP unless you think he’s going to pull a Big Bob Tonyan (pulling 10 touchdowns out of his butt).
Underdrafted:
Khalil Shakir, Wide Receiver (WR40, Pick 86 Overall)
We played this game last season with Khalil Shakir, who everyone pegged as an underdrafted player while taking him in the same spot. He was highly volume-dependent, something that tanked his season-long rank, because poor usage early made his season-long numbers look worse than they were for the bulk of the year. In the first five games of the season, Shakir averaged 4.2 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 49.8 yards per game, scoring two touchdowns in five games (a 71-target, 68-reception, 847-yard, seven-touchdown pace). In his final ten games of the season, he never went under six targets, and averaged eight targets, 5.6 receptions, 57.2 yards, and paced out to 3.4 touchdowns. He finished top-25 six times in those ten games, and top-36 seven times. We joke that Khalil Shakir is Flaming Tables Jakobi Meyers because of his high volume, low yardage usage. But he needs to get drafted immediately after Jakobi Meyers in all leagues.
The Bills aim to center Shakir and define his role in the offense, having backstopped the role with Elijah Moore at a lower cost after signing Khalil Shakir to a four-year, $60.2 million contract. The Bills don’t have a true alpha in the Julio Jones mold, but they have an alpha in the receiver room, and it’s Khalil Shakir. Last season, he was top-12 in true catch rate, second in yards after the catch, and 19th in yards per route run.
Sleeper:
Ray Davis, Running Back (RB49, Pick 146 Overall)
This isn’t all the James Cook contract situation, but it certainly doesn’t hurt Davis’ case that Cook is holding out for a new deal. While he ranked as RB43 in points per game last season, a lot of that has to do with his limited opportunity share, as he was RB25 in points per opportunity (rushes plus targets). He ranked fiftieth in opportunity share last season (29.8%), so this comes down to something simple: Ray Davis gets the ball more. There are several ways forward to this sleeper coming through: (1) James Cook holds out, (2) James Cook gets hurt, or (3) the Bills give the dynamic bruiser a bigger share of the workload. I love sleepers with multiple paths forward, so Ray Davis is a nice one for the Bills.
