The Raiders spent last season using a combination of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Midder to flail their way to 4-13, and jettisoned everyone involved in that disaster. The Raiders went out and pulled Pete Carroll out of retirement, snagged Chip Kelly from Ohio State, traded for Geno Smith, and drafted running back Ashton Jeanty, the offensive jewel of this draft class. They filled out their weaponry around stud sophomore Brock Bowers & Jakobi “real Jakobi Meyers” Meyers, getting Jack Bech, Donte Thornton, and a bevy of depth receivers to fit around the offense.
Let’s take a look at their offense through the eyes of an overdrafted player, an underdrafted player, and a sneaky sleeper for 2025 fantasy football leagues!
Overdrafted:
Brock Bowers, Tight End (TE1, Pick 12 Overall)
Brock Bowers is the ultimate stud, finishing top-three in: targets, target share, slot snaps, routes run, air yards, air yards share, deep targets, receptions, receiving yards, yac, yards per team pass attempt, juke rate, and EPA.
I am not here to deride Brock Bowers. His talent is evident, and his hairline tells you that his T is high. But, I do worry about paying a first-round price for Bowers. On a total basis, he surpassed Trey McBride (TE2) in all statistical categories, but he played more games than McBride. McBride also finished top-three in targets, target share, slot snaps (fifth in routes run), air yards, air yards share (7th in deep targets), receptions, receiving yards, yac, yards per team pass attempt, juke rate, and EPA.
McBride also has touchdown regression on his side: he ranked third in end zone targets with 9, second with 21 overall red zone targets, and had just one touchdown. Bowers, on the other hand, had seven end zone targets, 14 overall red zone targets, and five scores. Touchdown regression is on McBride’s side.
Bowers also worries me from a target competition standpoint, as the Raiders added Jack Bech and Ashton Jeanty. The Cardinals added… nobody. Literally zero players. They ran it back. They plan to have the same group run it back and hope for the best.
I will not take Brock Bowers as my TE1; he is my TE2. I have zero qualms with this, as Bowers & McBride are in a tier all by themselves. Still, there’s more pointing to McBride finishing above Bowers this season as the target competition stiffened for Bowers, but not for McBride.
McBride, however, goes as Pick 21 off the board, and Bowers as Pick 12.
As such, I will have no Brock Bowers
Underdrafted:
Jakobi Meyers, Wide Receiver (WR41, Pick 87 Overall)
Jakobi Meyers is the quintessential possession receiver in the NFL. We’ve turned him into a punchline, but in reality, it’s respect. Ladd McConkey is White Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings is Techbro Jakobi Meyers, Khalil Shakir is flaming tables Jakobi Meyers, and Courtland Sutton is Mile High Jakobi Meyers, for example.
Meyers earned his rank, as he was 12th in the league in receptions last year, and was just one of 21 wide receivers with at least 1000 receiving yards last year. He was also a very successful receiver, as he ranked 11th in success rate among the 35 receivers with at least 100 targets last year. He’s a strong PPR play, but falls off a cliff in standard-scoring leagues, finishing as WR29 in standard scoring and WR19 in PPR leagues.
This is something that I don’t fear will change, even with the additions of Ashton Jeanty and Jack Bech. The Raiders already ranked inside the top ten in target distribution to running backs, and consolidating 48 Alexander Mattison targets, 47 Ameer Abdullah targets, and 8 Zamir White targets into one back will not hurt Meyers.
Jakobi Meyers was a pure volume play last year, finishing at WR21 (17.9 PPR pts), on average, when 10+ targets. When he dropped below that figure, he finished, on average, at WR37 (12.3 PPR points). This season, he’s going as a WR4 as the #1 wide receiver on this offense, and one where he finished as WR37 in his worst splits last year. If Geno can move this team forward, then Jakobi Meyers should flourish. Speaking of Jakobi Meyers…
Sleeper:
Geno Smith, Quarterback (QB24, Pick 156 Overall)
The Seahawks found themselves in a Genossaince, as Jets, Chargers, and Giants legend/IK Enemkpali opp, Geno Smith, who had previously been the starting quarterback for Seattle, found himself as the starting quarterback for Seattle the last three seasons. He averaged 249.5 passing yards, 1.4 TD, and 0.7 INT per game in that span, on a 7.4 Y/A 68.5% completion percentage.
Among active starters, he ranks inside the top-8 in yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions. This is mainly because he’s been a reliable starter in that span, starting 49/51 games in the last three seasons, behind just Josh Allen (50) and Jared Goff (51). He also attempted the fourth-most passes in that time. So, a reliable compiler.
And I say compiler because on a per-pass basis, he’s about league-average (the following stats are among active QBs with at least 10 starts in the last three seasons): 26th of 52 in TD rate, 26th of 52 in INT rate, 18th in Y/A, 30th in Y/C, 13th in passing success rate. He did this without challenging defenses, as he ranked 46th in aDOT and 26th in completed air yards per completion.
Geno took a step back last season in touchdowns and interceptions, dropping to a 3.6% TD rate and 2.6% INT rate, but his passing was as efficient as ever.
I fully expect Geno Smith to adequately helm this offense, just like he did over the last three seasons, where he was on pace to finish over 4,000 yards passing for three-straight years (his two lost games in 2023 cost him that crown).
Despite being old and creaky, Geno Smith does run a tad. He has double-digit rushing yards per game in each of the last three seasons, but it’s more of a bonus than anything you can rely on, as he was 15th and 22nd in rushing yards over the previous two seasons.
Geno was a wildly inconsistent quarterback last season, but he fell on the right side of the QB1 line fairly often: he had eight top-12 finishes, but he was extremely boom-bust. Outside of those quality finishes, he finished 19th or worse on the week nine times. Those combined to find Geno finishing as QB13 in total points, but 15th in points per game.
Geno is the ideal second quarterback in 2QB leagues, and makes for a perfect floor QB to match with an upside QB like Justin Fields, Drake Maye, or Trevor Lawrence in 1QB leagues. I don’t find myself intrigued to draft him outside of that narrow band, as he doesn’t have the upside of other quarterbacks. Luckily, I don’t have to pay up for him if I want him.
