The Kansas City Chiefs, denied eternity, are merely former back-to-back champs, and have just been to five out of the last six Super Bowls. Trash, really. A bunch of garbage. A terrible football team. I wouldn’t do anything to affect the 49ers’ success. But the Chiefs are a team at a crossroads. Travis Kelce is old, Rashee Rice is stupid, Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are plodders (did I say that out loud?), and the team is built on dinking and dunking as much as humanly possible. Some say it’s because they are built around letting their defense run the show. I say it is because Matt Nagy is the stupidest person on our big blue dot and thinks that dinking & dunking with the GOAT is Just Good Football. Let’s dive into my thoughts on the fantasy football prospects for the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs!
Overdrafted:
Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback (QB6, Pick 60 Overall)
There’s a lot of #discourse on Bluesky about Patrick Mahomes. He’s undoubtedly the most talented quarterback we have ever seen. Still, he eats strawberries and almonds, so he probably won’t go down as the GOAT (but he also won’t get a divorce and lose hundreds of millions of dollars on crypto to go 8-9 in his mid-40s).
While I don’t doubt Mahomes’ talent, I am skipping over him at his price point for several reasons. First is a change in strategy for the Chiefs. They’ve moved to low average depth of target (aDOT), chain-moving, clock-killing drives. Mahomes’ average depth of target has dropped every year of his career, reaching 6.2 air yards per pass attempt last season. His 2018 season saw him with the fifth-highest average depth of target of 98 qualifiers since 2018 (min. 500 pass attempts). His 2024? It ranked 98th. The Chiefs do not uncork enough deep passes for him to have massive fantasy games.
Second, and more obviously, his lack of big fantasy games recently. Over Mahomes’ last two seasons, he’s averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game and has finished, on average, as QB 13 on the week (not a weekly starter). He’s QB6 by ADP, and has just 13 top-12 QB finishes in the last two seasons, nine top-ten finishes, and just five QB6 or better finishes. I am perfectly fine with being wrong on Patrick Mahomes, but I am not touching him at that price point. Xavier Worthy going off while Big Dom was in at NT in the Super Bowl, and the three healthy games we will get of Hollywood Brown are not enough to get me in on the superstar quarterback. He’s not good for fantasy football, despite being (at worst) the second-greatest quarterback of all time.
Underdrafted:
Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver (WR20, Pick 45 Overall)
When I first pulled this data, he was WR16, Pick 39. Then, his sentencing came down for his driving… indiscretions… and he’s already dropped down four spots at receiver thanks to the fear of an anticipated suspension. I’m not worried about it. My completely uneducated guess is that the NFL tried to levy a four-game suspension, which he and the NFLPA will likely appeal down to three games.
So, we are looking at floating Rashee Rice for three weeks while we wait for him to return from his suspension. I will more than happily take that gap given what we got out of Rashee Rice in his short stint as the Chiefs’ WR1. He finished three games last year before Patrick Mahomes launched himself at Rice’s knee on an interception return, ending Rice’s year.
Those three games: 7/103, 5/75/1, 12/110/1.. His worst game last year was 17.3 PPR points, and he was WR2 in fantasy points per game last season. If you can take him as your WR2, then you are golden once the calendar hits October, where he is a shoo-in as a top-ten WR.
Sleeper:
Elijah Mitchell, Running Back (RB75, Pick 240 Overall)
There are two things that I am sure about with the Kansas City backfield: (1) Kareem Hunt is washed. He ranked 52nd in yards created per touch and was 43rd of 47 running backs with at least 90 carries last year in rushing yards over expectation per carry (really, given that his number was –0.57, it was yards under expectation).
The other thing I know, according to camp reports, is that Elijah Mitchell is working with Hunt and Isiah Pacheco with the first team in camp. Mitchell was a starter back in 2021, before the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey. He played in 11 games, handling 19 carries and two catches per game, for an even 100 yards per contest. He also played on a 9-touchdown pace in those games. So, he has top-ten running back upside thanks to his big-play ability that injuries and the depth chart have stopped him from showing off in the last two years.
He isn’t a guy that I would draft in a normal-sized league, but a guy that I would keep an eye on in camp. He’s going to leapfrog either Pacheco or Hunt, and when he does, it is off to the races.
