The Arizona Cardinals were the most boring franchise to follow this offseason, at least for fantasy football purposes. They didn’t draft anyone at any fantasy football-relevant position, and they didn’t do anything in free agency that might shake things up for fantasy football, adding quarterback Jacoby Brissett and depth wide receivers Zay Jones and Simi Fehoko. All in all, they’re essentially running it back on offense, with no significant changes to their skill positions. As such, they’re a difficult team to start our annual Overdrafted, Underdrafted & Sleeper series with, but we will make do.
Overdrafted:
Marvin Harrison Jr, Wide Receiver (WR19, Pick 40 overall)
My Rank: WR25
There are several reasons why I don’t like Marvin Harrison, Jr. this high in his sophomore campaign. None of them has to do with MHJ’s overall talent level. First, the perception surrounding MHJ was that he would be a transformative talent for the Cardinals. He’s an excellent receiver, but we took him at WR9 last season, the highest for any rookie in the history of Yahoo! Sports. While that article undercuts my point, here, I do want to highlight something Dalton Del Don says in that piece:
“On throws over the middle of the field, Harrison was one of the most effective wide receivers in the NFL. But 75% of his (mostly unsuccessful) targets came on the perimeter, which was the league’s second-highest rate.”
That right there, that’s the problem. The Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. to be a field stretcher, something that his size and skill set do not allow. They also have one of the premier tight end pass catchers, Trey McBride (more on him in a second), patrolling the middle of the field. So, they don’t have space to work underneath to MHJ like the Rams can with Puka Nacua or the Cowboys can with CeeDee Lamb, who Del Don points out have similar Fantasy Points’ Separation Scores.
I don’t hate Marvin Harrison, Jr. as a player. He’s phenomenal; a stud. However, his usage leaves a ton to be desired, as Drew Petzing needs to use him over the middle to maximize MHJ’s abilities, and Petzing already has a stud receiver in the middle of the field.
Taking MHJ at pick 40 eschews some players I vastly prefer, including Mike Evans (WR20/Pick 41), Joe Burrow (QB5/Pick 42), and Alvin Kamara (RB17/Pick 45). It also marks a significant step forward for him, assuming a massive improvement from his WR39 season last year; he had three games during the fantasy season where he finished WR19 or better (and two where he finished WR100 or worse).
Undervalued:
Trey McBride, Tight End (TE2, Pick 21 Overall)
My Rank: TE1
It’s not particularly thrilling to put your TE2 as an undervalued player, but McBride has every reason to go at the same time as Brock Bowers (or even before, if you want to get spicy with your league mates).
I am not here to deride Brock Bowers. His talent is evident, and his hairline tells you that his T is high. But, I do worry about paying a first-round price for Bowers. On a total basis, he surpassed Trey McBride (TE2) in all statistical categories, but he played more games than McBride. McBride also finished top-three in targets, target share, slot snaps, (fifth in routes run), air yards, air yards share, (7th in deep targets), receptions, receiving yards, yac, yards per team pass attempt, juke rate, and EPA.
McBride also has touchdown regression on his side: he ranked third in end zone targets with 9, second with 21 overall red zone targets, and had just one touchdown. Bowers, on the other hand, had seven end zone targets, 14 overall red zone targets, and five scores. Touchdown regression is on McBride’s side.
Bowers also worries me from a target competition standpoint, as the Raiders added Jack Bech and Ashton Jeanty. The Cardinals added… nobody to steal targets from McBride, unless you fear Zay Jones or Simi Fehoko. They ran it back. They plan to have the same group run it back and hope for the best, and that with touchdown regression gives Trey McBride the nod as my TE1 this season.
Sleeper:
Trey Benson, Running Back (RB47, Pick 138 Overall)
My Rank: RB58
Well, I am lower on Benson than the consensus, but that’s because my numbers are based on straight projections, and I project James Conner as the lead dog in Arizona. We didn’t see a split last season, with James Conner receiving 66.3% of the running back opportunities, thanks primarily to playing 16 games for the first time in his career. The career bell cow usually takes the brunt of the running game, missing an average of four games per season across this 8-year career.
With Conner crossing the 30-year-old line, he officially reached running back Unc status (did I say that right?). I doubt that Conner will suddenly become sturdier as he gets older, meaning that Benson should get his crack at the RB1 role in Arizona, and likely earn more of a spot in the team’s rotation.
Benson’s season-long stats—63 carries & 6 receptions for 350 yards and a touchdown—don’t tell the whole story (screw you ChatGPT, I wrote that myself). Benson started off the season timid, almost like he was running in such a way that he hoped the play ended as soon as possible. He missed holes, he ran into tackles, he misread blocks. It was a disaster class in how not to play the running back position. Starting against Miami (and the numbers back this up), the game slowed down for him, and you could see him bouncing off tacklers and running with more confidence. The results followed; he went from 3.6 yards per carry on his first 30 career rushing attempts to 5.6 yards per carry on his subsequent 33 carries.
Benson needs an opportunity to take advantage of, but it appears that he would take advantage of a given situation should the opportunity arise. He’s the very definition of a sleeper; there’s no indication he will do anything, but the second half of last season would prove otherwise.
