This isn’t how the Cardinals season was supposed to go. They were supposed to ride their stud wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr, and their defense to an NFC West title. Unfortunately, they were eliminated in mid-December and are headed toward a mid-off with the San Francisco 49ers in week eighteen. But, now that the fantasy football season is over, what should we remember about the 2024 Arizona Cardinals? Let’s look at five statistics to remember when preparing to evaluate the 2025 edition of the Cardinals.
Did Marvin Harrison Jr. Bust, Or Were We Busted?
Rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr., on the eve of the NFL season, was WR9 off of the board, and pick 15 overall. This was before he played a single, solitary NFL snap. He ended his fantasy football season with 57 receptions for 822 yards, on 110 targets. He scored seven touchdowns during the fantasy season. This is… a good season, finishing as WR33 in PPR, and ahead of guys like Cooper Kupp, Michael Pittman, and DK Metcalf. But the reality of his situation is that his usage, not Marvin Harrison, sucked.
Pro-Football-Reference tracks average depth of target data going back to 2018, and in that dataset, there have been 48 rookies with an average depth of target over 13, on at least 20 targets. This suggests a deep-threat role, as the traditional “alpha” receiver usually sits closer to 11 yards per target, as their role is a mix of manufactured touches, medium-range targets, and deep shots. An aDOT over 13 indicates a target mix that consists of downfield shots. Of that group, only 9 had over 800 yards in 16 games: A.J. Brown, Chris Olave, Terry McLaurin, DeVonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf, [Chase Claypool], Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Except for Claypool, all developed into weekly fantasy football assets. What is the reason we think he’s a bust? Those guys had an average ADP of pick 177, and 62 overall. So it wasn’t Marvin Harison Jr.’s fault that he busted, he had a top-10% season for his usage, and we overdrafted him.
Why Didn’t Kyler Feel Like a Top-12 Quarterback?
Kyler finished the fantasy football season as QB11, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game in 4PTD leagues. But it didn’t feel that way. He was buoyed by four top-five finishes from weeks one through ten, which helped his final rank. But, things worsened from there. After his bye, he finished as QB13 (or worse) in five-of-six weeks, with just one top-ten finish in there. He was a dreadful passer, throwing just 17 touchdowns, and passing for only 225.6 yards per game, which is why he never elevated his game. But, he also struggled to have a floor game, thanks to the second-most rushing yards of his career. He is far behind his 819 rushing yards in 2020, but his 550 rushing yards through sixteen games was good for fourth in the league.
So, what does this mean for Kyler in 2025? Well, if you combine it with the MHJ tidbit above, it means that Kyler Murray still has room to grow in 2025. He had the lowest TD%, the highest INT%, and the second-lowest YPG of his career. The Cardinals got him an elite talent in Marvin Harrison Jr, then forced him to only run deep shots with an alpha receiver. Things can only look up in year two for Murray and Harrison.
Trey McBride: Touchdown Regression King
Much was made of Trey McBride not scoring a receiving touchdown until week seventeen (luckily, he was a top-three tight end all season, so that finals TD helped out a lot of folks). He had an astronomically-terrible go of it this season, logging seven end zone targets during the fantasy season (the ninth-most among tight ends), and coming away with zero touchdowns on those targets. There are no other tight ends with seven end zone targets, but there are seven with 6 or 8. Those seven average 4.125 touchdowns solely on end zone targets. Trey McBride joins Austin Hooper (4) and Noah Fant (3) as the only tight ends with 3+ end zone targets without an end zone touchdown. So, that’s one track of improvement for him next year. The next is targets outside of the end zone, but close enough to make it work. McBride had a league-leading ten targets inside the ten (but not in the end zone). He tied with George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, and David Njoku, who had 6, 6, and 3 touchdowns on these targets, respectively. McBride had one. On average, 42.3% of these targets turned into touchdowns. So, throw together his 4.125 touchdowns on end zone targets, and the 4.23 touchdowns he should have scored on his ten zone targets, and you end up with McBride regressing to eight touchdowns in 2025.
James Conner: Plodder?!
James Conner played sixteen games this season, missing the meaningless week eighteen game against the 49ers. He also, unfortunately, left early in week seventeen (the fantasy finals), after getting just eight total yards on four carries and two catches. But, James Conner turned in an incredibly good season up until that point. He ranked top-twelve in carries, targets, and red zone touches during the fantasy season. He also was top-five in the NFL in two different statistics that you likely don’t associate with Conner. He led the NFL in juke rate (32.5%) and was fourth in breakaway runs (16). Unfortunately, Conner turns 30 this offseason, and Trey Benson had some intriguing runs (see more below), but Conner isn’t quite dead. Not yet, at least.
Trey Benson Has Some Crazy Peers in His Rookie Year
Trey Benson didn’t get a lot of usage in 2024, what with James Conner inexplicably staying healthy right up until he could cost fantasy managers their championship in week seventeen. That having been said, the kid wasn’t too bad on a rate stat basis. He had just 17.3% of snaps, and 19% of running back opportunities, so he didn’t rack up stats. But, his 5.47 yards per rush attempt after he got his legs under him (week three forward) is tied with Bucky Irving for the highest among rookie rushers. He also had a juke rate between Bijan Robinson and Chase Brown, and the same yards created per touch as Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall. Unfortunately, he’s a zero in the passing game, but he’s a suitable running game replacement (or fill-in) for James Conner in 2025.
