The fantasy season is winding down, and we bring you our penultimate Absurdity Check for the season. With teams mostly sorted out, we need to dive into things that have potentially changed lately. Let’s dive into the Miami offensive woes, Rico Dowdle, and Mike Evans!
Are the Dolphins in Trouble?
The Miami Dolphins saw their playoff hopes dwindle even further Sunday, as the Houston Texans took them out, to 20-12. Grant DuBose left the game with a scary injury, but that’s not what caused the problems in this one. The entire Miami offense seemed out of sorts, and it looks as though the Miami Dolphins are in major trouble.
But why?
Well, it’s very easy: they have no offensive linemen to speak of. The Dolphins were without three of their top offensive linemen in this game (Terron Armstead, Austin Jackson, and swing tackle Kendall Lamm). This was a huge problem this week, as the Texans are second in sacks on the season, but over the last month, they logged pressure on just 27.5% of dropbacks (22nd in the league). With no tackles, a mediocre pass rush was able to harry Tua, sacking him three times and hurrying him into three interceptions in this one. The offensive line is struggling to create any protection for Tua, which lets teams tee off on him.
The decimated offensive line also has turned the running game into an afterthought, further emboldening teams to go after Tua Tagovailoa in the passing game. Over the last four weeks, the Dolphins’ offensive line is getting zero push on rushing attempts. To whit: the Dolphins allow the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.67) in the league. They are one of two teams to allow less than a yard before contact per rush attempt in the NFL in that span.
So, the Dolphins are in huge trouble. They’re decimated along the offensive line, and it’s created a cascade of issues for their fantasy options. At this point, I don’t see how you could start anyone with confidence except Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. Tyreek Hill will be a volume-based WR2, and that’s a huge step down from where we drafted him. Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle are purely unplayable next week against the Niners, at least as long as this offensive line situation continues.
Is Rico Dowdle a League Winner?
Rico Dowdle laid the boom on the Carolina Panthers this week, finishing the game with 25 carries for 129 yards, but without a catch, or a touchdown. Still, the Cowboys showed a relentless dedication to Dowdle this week, one that they’ve held steadfast on over the last four games.
Starting with the week 12 game at Washington, the Cowboys have let Rico Dowdle dominate their running back room. He has 84 rush attempts, which marks 81.5% of their running back carries, and he has rewarded their faith with incredible production. His worst game in that span came out to 98 total yards, and that was against Washington four weeks ago. In his last three games, he has 123 total yards, 141 total yards, and 149 total yards. He scored only one touchdown in that span but has been an unstoppable force, finishing as a top-20 running back twice, and he is on pace to finish as a top-12 running back twice in that span.
There are two issues with labeling him as a league winner, however. First, he plays on an extremely pass-first offense, with the Cowboys notching multiple passing touchdowns in three of the last four games, which limits Dowdle’s touchdown upside. He also doesn’t catch the ball, failing to get those cheap catches (just 9 receptions in his last four games, during this hot streak).
This is where the problems start for Dowdle. While I believe that he should be a must-start running back, at least unless you drafted extremely well, a league winner might be a step too far. He gets the Buccaneers and Eagles in the last two weeks of the fantasy season, and those both rank in the bottom ten in rushing yards allowed over the last four weeks. The schemes will also cause an issue for the Cowboys’ potential success. Over the last four weeks, the Cowboys rank ninth in zone rushing rate, but they average only 3.47 yards per carry in that scheme. They are far more prolific with their man-run scheme, garnering 4.96 yards per carry, the fourth-highest in the league.
The Eagles are extremely adept at stopping man runs, with the fourth-lowest success rate against them, and the Buccaneers are neutral (50% success rate in man runs). Against zone runs, the Eagles allow the second-highest success rate, and the ninth-highest yards per carry. As for the Buccaneers, they are neutral in that regard, as well (seventeenth in yards per carry against zone).
So, Rico Dowdle isn’t a league winner, but he isn’t running up against any sort of matchup that you should worry about. While the Eagles are a tough run defense on paper, they allow a ton of yards to running backs in zone runs, which the Cowboys run at an extremely high rate.
Will Mike Evans Get His 1,000 Yards?
One of my pet statistics, which later became the pet statistic of everyone covering the league, is that Mike Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards in every year of his career. He is the only receiver to do this for more than seven seasons, and he’s now up to ten straight seasons of 1,000 yards receiving in every season of his career. But, with three games ceded to the injury gods in the middle of the season, will Mike Evans notch his First Ballot Hall of Fame-inducing eleventh-straight year of at least 1,000 yards?
Well, let’s look at the numbers. As of now, Mike Evans sits at 749 receiving yards (with a smattering of rushing in there, but we don’t care about that), with three games to play. He struggled with a hamstring injury early in the season and returned to the lineup four games ago. In those four games, he has an average of 103.5 yards per game, capped off by his 99-catch 159-yard, two-touchdown game this week. If you take that pace and multiply it by three, he passes his 1,000 yards easily. But what of his opponents?
His final three games come against the Cowboys, the Panthers, and the Saints. The Cowboys, decimated by injury late in the season, have given up over 100 yards to wide receivers in three out of the last four games, and are yet to stop a clear #1 receiver since their bye week. That makes for one tomato can for him to knock down. The Panthers (the Giants’ opponent this week) just gave up 113 yards to CeeDee Lamb, on 13 targets. Everybody knew the ball was going to Lamb, and they couldn’t stop him, anyway. Of note, some guy named “Mike Evans” on Tampa Bay already torched these jokers for 118 yards a scant two weeks ago. There goes tomato can number two.
Then, Evans, fittingly, faces off against his greatest foe: the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately for the Saints, they are a shell of their former selves, and the Mike Evans meltdown-inducing Marshon Lattimore is nowhere to be found, as the Saints traded him to Washington at the trade deadline. The Saints represent tomato can number three, with teams doing whatever they want against them in the passing game. The last time these two teams played, Marshon Lattimore locked up Mike Evans, but Chris Godwin went off for 125 receiving yards. Now, in a fitting monument to the transient nature of the NFL, neither Godwin nor Lattimore will play. That leaves Mike Evans to torch the less-than-top-flight defensive backs that Chris Godwin previously torched.
Mike Evans will make history, and his path to Canton this season, by easily getting his 1,000 receiving yards, for the eleventh-straight year.
