Puka Nacua and Josh Allen ended many seasons this week (complimentary), as did Kyle Pitts and James Cook (derogatory), and hopefully vaulted even more teams to the fantasy football playoffs with their outcomes this week. With the playoffs in mind, let’s take a look at some rest-of-season thoughts on revelations that cropped up on Sunday.
Are the 49ers Back?
The San Francisco 49ers laid the wood on the Chicago Bears this weekend. If you’ve read my articles or followed me on social media, you know that I am a 49ers season ticket holder. So, I was at this game. Just before half-time, the person behind me threw up all over themselves so voluminously that it eventually ended up flowing forward three rows. This is a metaphor for the first half of the Chicago Bears vs. 49ers game, from the Bears’ perspective. They averaged 7.2 inches per play in the first half, and the 49ers dominated them, going up 24-0 at half-time.
This was a get-right game of all get-right games for the 49ers, with Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, and Jauan Jennings all lighting up the box score. The Niners had five 20+ yard plays in the first quarter and finished with eight at the half. This is what the offense has been missing, and the Bears have been a strong defense all season long. So, are the 49ers back?
Well, no, not really. Isaac Guerendo left the game with a foot injury, so the 49ers might be on their fourth (Patrick Taylor) and fifth (Israel Abanikanda) running backs on Thursday against the Rams. Second, while the Bears have been a good defense on the balance of the season, they have not been one lately.
The 49ers-Bears tilt marks the third time in the last four games that the Bears have allowed a quarterback a 21-point fantasy day in a four-point per passing touchdown league. Over that same timeframe, they’ve also completely fallen apart on defense in real life. In the four weeks before this game, the Bears ranked second in yards per pass attempt allowed (9.1), and fifth in quarterback passer rating (104.6), despite ranking second in quarterback pressure rate (37.4%). Teams have just been throwing all over them lately. Unfortunately, they’ve also been running all over the Bears lately, too.
Over the last four weeks, the Bears allow the eleventh-highest yards per carry, the eleventh-highest explosive run rate, and the eleventh-lowest running back stuff rate. They also allowed the fourth-most yards after contact in that span, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt.
So that all is to say that no, the 49ers likely aren’t “back.” They’re the same middle-of-the-pack team that they have been lately, especially considering how many of their issues stem from injuries that have not (or will not) resolve themselves this season. That being said, they host the Rams (who just gave up 42 points) this week, and the week after that is a road tilt with the Dolphins (who just let multiple Jets light them up). So the 49ers might not be back, they might not be good, but they might just be good enough for your fantasy football playoff run.
Is Kenneth Walker in Trouble?
Kenneth Walker missed Sunday’s action as the Seahawks took on the Cardinals, and Zach Charbonnet finished with 29 touches for 193 yards, and two touchdowns. In the three weeks before that Charbonnet explosion, Kenneth Walker had 46 carries for 144 yards, and 8 catches for 54 yards, scoring just one touchdown. So, it appears as though at least for one week, one Zach Charbonnet game is worth three Kenneth Walker games.
The problem isn’t that Charbonnet was so much better in this game than Walker in recent games, it’s that he was so much better than Walker has been against the same opponent. Charbonnet had his coming out party today against the Cardinals, the same team that held Walker to 16 carries for 41 yards, and 4 catches for 52 yards just two games ago. That is the problem; Charbonnet (for whatever reason) performed infinitely better against the same opponent, just two weeks later. The Seahawks are not dummies and are in a dogfight for the NFC West. That means that they will maximize the most efficient parts of their offense (see Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s usage over the last month or so).
To me, that means that the Seahawks will start splitting touches between Charbonnet and Walker, more than they did before Walker’s injury. The Seahawks are below-average in running back utilization, ranking nineteenth in running back touches per game. This was fine when Walker was out-touching Charbonnet 17-6 since Walker’s previous return from injury. Now, if they only divide 23 or so touches down the middle, that makes for trouble for Kenneth Walker. His only saving grace? Receptions; he averages four per game since his previous return from injury (Charbonnet averaged just two per game in the same timeframe), making him a viable asset in PPR leagues.
The Seahawks’ schedule down the stretch doesn’t give me too much pause, as they play the Packers, Vikings, and Bears in the last three weeks of the season. This week the Packers, Vikings, and Bears all let running backs gouge them on the ground. Kenneth Walker is still a startable asset in PPR fantasy football leagues, though I would temper expectations to around a mid-to-back-level RB2.
Is Adam Thielen a League Winner?
Adam Thielen had a huge game this week, notching 9 catches for 102 yards, on 11 targets, against the Eagles. Everything about that sentence made me more excited. First, the 9 catches for 102 yards. Both of these numbers represent season-highs for Thielen, as the receiver missed weeks four through eleven with an injury. After a ramp-up game against the Chiefs (3/57 on 4 targets), Thielen has become a target hog, getting 21 targets for 17 catches and 201 yards over the last two games. He also came within inches of the potential game-extending pass today, which would have given him even better numbers.
Thielen’s numbers are sustainable, as the Panthers are running the entire passing game through him. He has 21 of Bryce Young’s 51 pass attempts over the last two games or a 41% target volume. While that volume won’t hold for the balance of the season, it will hold for a stretch, a stretch we currently occupy.
Adam Thielen is the best Panthers’ receiver, and it isn’t particularly close. The Panthers also have some juicily exploitable defenses down the stretch, taking on the Cowboys (12th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers), the Cardinals (15th), and the Buccaneers (6th). Adam Thielen is set up for a hot late-season run, and you would be smart to jump on his bandwagon. Get hooked on this Thielen, get that loving Thielen. He could just win you your league.
