Sunday was fun! Of course, I write this before my beloved 49ers inevitably get sliced in half by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. It was a wild day, with closely fought late window games, and pants-on-head drunk and stupid morning games. To whit: there were 20 fumbles recovered by the defense (or special teams) & interceptions Sunday morning. There were also 5 non-offensive touchdowns scored. So, let’s take a look at this wild and woolly Sunday and see what matters in the last four weeks of the fantasy football season.
Is it Time to Bail on Kirk Cousins and the Falcons’ Offense?
Kirk Cousins finished Sunday with four interceptions, 245 passing yards (three rushing), and no touchdowns. This marks his third straight game without a touchdown, giving him six interceptions in his last three games. It also marks the third time in his last four games that he’s failed to top 250 passing yards and the fourth time in the last six games that he hasn’t passed that mark. It’s Cousins’ second-career four-pick game, but he still had 257 passing yards and a score in the previous game, making this the worst game of Kirk Cousins’ career. It comes in a stretch of games that have seen Cousins throw for seven touchdowns and no picks against Tampa Bay and Dallas, before this skid.
So, do the Falcons make a change under center? Do they take a look at Michael Penix? No, they can’t do that. They’re still in the hunt for the NFC South title, and onboarding a rookie (and never mind the switch from lefty to righty wreaking havoc on the receivers). So, they’re more-or-less stuck with Cousins. Given the byenado next week, you might be stuck, as well. But, there are better days ahead. Cousins led my cut list article for a couple of weeks because of this upcoming stretch of games. However, better days are ahead for the fantasy football playoffs. Captain Kirk will hit the Kobayashi Maru and the Brian Flores defense next week, but after that, it’s smooth sailing.
The Vikings finish the season with matchings at Las Vegas (eighth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), the Giants (ninth in that stat), and the Commanders (thirteenth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks). So, if you have Kirk Cousins on your roster, I would try to find an alternative for next week. After that, however, Cousins has an easy stretch of games on the docket after next week, right when you need them. I previously advocated for moving on from Cousins exactly because of the last few weeks. Now, however, you want to hang onto Cousins as dire straits will force him into action for your team next week, and it’s smooth sailing after that for Cousins, from a matchup perspective.
Is Ladd McConkey a Must-Start Wide Receiver?
Ladd McConkey finished Sunday’s game with 12 targets, 9 receptions, and 117 yards. He topped 20 fantasy points for the second time in his young career, but can we trust it?
First of all, this is all contingent on his knee injury that he suffered in this game recovering to a point where he is unhindered by it in week 14. With that having been said, let’s just rattle off some numbers quickly. Since the Chargers’ bye, McConkey is thirteenth in yards per game, eleventh in receptions, seventeenth in yards per route run, and tenth in quarterback rating while targeted (minimum 50 routes run), all while dominating the slot (tenth in slot route rate). That all came together to make him WR19 in PPR leagues since their bye… and that was before this game.
The Chargers went ahead and turned their entire offense over to Ladd McConkey, and in games with good matchups, he has returned dividends for his fantasy football managers. He’s finished with 14.3 or more PPR points in three straight games, but since the bye, he’s gone as his matchups have gone. Since the bye, he’s played three teams that rank outside the top fifteen in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. In those three games, he’s finished with an average of 5.7 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 47 yards per game. In the other contests, McConkey has 8 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 112 yards per game. So, he’s definitely dependent on the matchup.
Unfortunately, two of McConkey’s last four matchups are negative. He has Kansas City (18th in fantasy points to receivers) and Denver (Surtain Island) left on the docket, but the Chiefs have been beatable lately through the air. KC’s allowed Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, David Moore, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Courtland Sutton, and Devaugh Vele double-digit fantasy points in the last four weeks. That gives McConkey three exploitable matchups in the last four weeks, with only the highly predictable Patrick Surtain game against the Broncos stopping him from achieving four weeks of top-flight fantasy football glory.
Did Jayden Daniels Undo the Kingsbury Offense Kurse?
Jayden Daniels ended this week’s game with 27.64 fantasy points, a week after finishing with 30.4 fantasy points against the Cowboys. It seems as though, at least on paper, that Jayden Daniels and the offense undid the vast majority of the Kliff Kingsbury Kurse, where his teams fall off in the second half of seasons. After all, they scored 68 points in the last two weeks. Last week’s fantasy point bonanza came thanks to the Cowboys and Commanders going “Stupid Mode” as the kids say, with the fourth quarter starting 10-9, and ending 26-34.
While I can’t discount what happened in that game, Daniels was mostly held in check, as entering that quarter he had 165 of his 349 total yards. That’s what started the fear that Kliff Kingsbury’s offense was going to cause issues going forward. Then, all hell broke loose & that wallpapered over the questionable playcalling, formations, and overall bad vibes that come with a Kliff Kingsbury offense.
Then, this game went off about as well as it possibly could… for the Commanders’ defense and special teams. While I refuse to discount the offense cashing in on their opportunities, the Tennessee Titans threw up all over themselves to start week thirteen, and the Commanders never really looked back. Tennessee parted the seas for a 30+ yard Brian Robinson rushing touchdown and allowed the Commanders to score two touchdowns on 68 combined yards thanks to Special Teams SNAFUs. Jayden Daniels didn’t do much, except fill up the box score, thanks to these short fields. This put Tennessee on their heels and allowed the Commanders to crush them at will.
So, does this change anything for me going forward? A little bit, as a lot of Jayden Daniels’ struggles were not only Kliff Kingsbury’s doing but also a pesky rib injury. He seems to be over that for now and has the bye next week. That means that for the fantasy football playoffs, he gets the Saints, the Eagles, and the Falcons. While I am skeptical that Jayden Daniels escaped the Kingsbury Kurse, I also think that you can ride him to a fantasy football championship… as long as you find an alternative for your fantasy semifinals in week sixteen.
