We’re mostly through eleven weeks now, and teams are still finding ways to surprise us. Every week, we break down a handful of those surprises to determine whether they are sustainable. Let’s dive into this week’s Absurdity Check!
Did Matthew Stafford Turn the Corner on His 2024 Season?
Matthew Stafford finished week 11 with 295 yards and four scores, and he sits at QB5 on the week (excluding TE Taysom Hill) after Sunday Night Football. That’s not too shocking, as his 27.8 fantasy points mark the third time in the last four games that he’s topped 18.9 fantasy points. This coincides exactly with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp’s return from injury, and the Rams’ passing game reaching full strength. Since their return, Stafford has two top-five finishes, a #13 finish, and a #20 finish. He’s averaging 291 passing yards, and 2.5 touchdowns per game in that span, after averaging 232 passing yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game in the first six games of the year. That’s a massive step forward for Stafford.
Stafford did it against a bad matchup on paper; there have been no quarterbacks since Aaron Rodgers’ week three 21 fantasy points topped 20 against the Patriots. But, that was also somewhat of a mirage: the 49ers ran all over them, so Purdy didn’t throw, then they played Tyler Huntley, and then the Texans ran all over them, so Stroud didn’t throw. After that, they played Trevor Lawrence, Rodgers again (17 fantasy points), Mason Rudolph (18 fantasy points), and then the last game Shane Waldron coached for the Bears. That all is to say… they’re not actually that good on defense, they just get beat in different ways.
Stafford has some actual difficult matchups on the horizon: the Eagles, who have the league’s defense by yards per game, a good matchup against the Saints, and then the Buffalo Bills, who just held Patrick Mahomes to 196 passing yards. So, Matthew Stafford has been cruising, but he has difficult matchups on the horizon. I would sit him, start him, then sit him, over the next three weeks. He’s performed well in good matchups, but he has two doozies on the horizon.
Did the Seahawks unleash Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Back before the Seahawks’ bye, Jaxon Smith-Njigba went all the way off: 13 targets, 7 catches, 180 yards, and two scores. Then, the Seahawks went into hibernation, they got DK Metcalf back, and JSN was supposed to take a backseat to Metcalf. That didn’t go exactly to plan, as JSN finished week 11 with 11 targets, 10 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 carry for 8 yards. That brings the total for his last two games to 24 targets, 17 receptions, and 298 total yards. He finished the day with his average target going 9.7 yards downfield, which is both good and bad.
It’s good, because a 9.7 aDOT is much more sustainable than his target depth last week (17.5 yards downfield), and it puts him around guys like Ladd McConkey, Mark Andrews, and Keenan Allen. While two of those three haven’t been the most consistent players this season, that comes more from a target share issue more than anything.
And that hasn’t been an issue for JSN. He finished with 11 of Geno’s 31 targets in this game, putting him at a hair above 35%. That is the continuance of a trend, wherein JSN has a higher target share than guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Trey McBride, Puka Nacua, and… DK Metcalf. We have a large enough sample size to say that the Seahawks have unleashed Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He responded by being a top-ten wide receiver on Sunday, and overall, he is WR5 in PPR over the last four weeks.
Is Anthony Richardson Back?
After a snip-snap-snip-snap that would make Michael Scott uncomfortable, the Colts went back to Anthony Richardson on Sunday. This came just days after Shane Steichen said that they would not be doing that. Richardson returned to the lineup in style, completing 20 of 30 passes for 272 yards and a score, kicking in 32 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The three touchdowns marked his first multiple-touchdown game since week one, and the 272 passing yards marked a career-high. He also did it against an on-paper stout Jets team, who allows the twelfth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Unfortunately, I am not convinced that Richardson turned a corner and will be the stud that we hoped he would be when we overdrafted him back in August. First, the Jets are susceptible to one particular type of quarterback: the rushing variety. Quarterbacks have dropped seven rushing touchdowns on the Jets since week six, which is completely unsustainable. This seven-game stretch also marks all four of the quarterbacks to top 20 points against them (it’s also four of the seven-time quarterbacks topped 12.5 fantasy points against them). So, that is to say: the Jets are one team that QBs can run on.
The Colts’ upcoming schedule is a real buzzsaw of defenses: the Lions are turning into monsters after teams could throw on them to start the year, then they get the Patriots, the Bye, and the Broncos. Those are all matchups where I’d likely go with the other guy in a question between Richardson and the other guy. So, unfortunately, I do not think that Richardson is back. But, that doesn’t mean that a speculative add is out of the question if he’s hanging out on the waiver wire in your league… just in case.
