With just the Rams and Dolphins pending for the week, we are done with ten weeks of the NFL season, and we are reaching the home stretch on the fantasy football regular season. With just four (or five) weeks left in the regular season in most leagues, you’d think things would start to settle down. But, they haven’t. Let’s look at three major questions that might change the complexion of your fantasy football league going forward.
Did Chuba Hubbard Screw Jonathon Brooks to the Bench?
Jonathon Brooks was inactive for Sunday’s game as he continues to make his way back from his ACL tear that cost him the end of his collegiate career, and so far, ten weeks of his NFL career. In his stead, Chuba Hubbard (he of the new top-ten running back contract) took the reins of the Panthers’ running game. Hubbard dominated the running back touches in this one thanks to a Miles Sanders injury, getting 34 of the 36 running back touches. He finished with 153 yards rushing, 16 yards receiving, and a score.
This marked a huge game for Hubbard, as he set a new career-high in rushing yards, and tied his career-high in total yards. But, he was always supposed to be a placeholder. He was always supposed to give way to Jonathon Brooks. Unfortunately for Brooks drafters, it seems as though that won’t be happening anytime soon. While Hubbard had the vast majority of the snaps thanks to a Miles Sanders injury, before the injury, he dominated snaps (15 snaps to Hubbard, 5 to Sanders). This is a continuation of his massive usage all season long: per PlayerProfiler, he ranked top-ten in snap share, eleventh in carries, and tenth in targets. He’s dominated the Panthers in snaps and touches, and he will continue to dominate snaps and touches.
While I don’t think that Chuba screwed Jonathon Brooks to the bench, I also believe that he allowed the Panthers to not immediately urn the running game over to Jonathon Brooks, too. If you have someone in your league who still thinks that Brooks will take over, then you should probably move Brooks to him. At best, it’s looking like a 60-40 timeshare, favoring Chuba Hubbard, going forward.
Is Jauan Jennings a Must-Start Receiver Going Forward?
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Jauan Jennings on a football field. He injured his hip in week six and spent two games on the shelf before the 49ers’ bye. In the meantime, the 49ers wide receiver corps was rocked with flux, as they got Ricky Pearsall back, and lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season. Oh, and Christian McCaffrey came back. All of that is to say, that since Jauan Jennings left, the 49ers evolved into what is likely to be their final form for the season, one with Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall leading the way in the wide receiver room.
Jauan Jennings responded by leading the team in targets, catches, and yards, finishing with 7 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. That was a bonkers 30.6% target share for Jennings this week. This also marked the second time that the 49ers were without one of their top two receivers with Jauan Jennings available. The other game? Jauan Jennings’ breakout game back in week 3, where he finished with 12 targets, 11 receptions, 175 yards, and 3 touchdowns, on a 40% target share.
While I don’t expect Jauan Jennings to maintain a 30% target share, I do expect him to clock off about a 25% target share every week. Brock Purdy is averaging 30.3 targets per game so that puts Jauan Jennings in the 7-8 target per game range. That’s certainly appealing, especially since he seems to be incapable of dropping a pass, notching a +12% CPOE on targets. His yards per route run is also especially appealing as his good average depth of target (12.6 yards) and nice catch rate (69.4%) combine for the fifth-highest yards per route run among wide receivers on the season.
He’s not a must-start in two wide receiver leagues, but anything with 3WR or more that can be started, he should make it into your lineup and never league, especially in PPR leagues.
Is it Time to Abandon the Bears’ Passing Game?
The Chicago Bears were an abject disaster on Sunday, falling to the Patriots by a final score of 19-3. Caleb Williams finished with a very not-nice 69 net passing yards after eating 51 yards worth of sacks. The three top receivers on the roster all tied with six targets apiece, with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze finishing with 44, 24, and 23 receiving yards, respectively.
This game marked the fourth straight game that Caleb Williams failed to reach 230 passing yards and the second time in the last three games that he failed to top 131 total passing yards. It’s been a nightmare for Caleb, who was supposed to be hitting a soft spot in his schedule: he took on the Jags, Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots, and three of those four teams rank in the top ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Instead, the Bears hit the skids since their bye. Caleb Williams has three straight games outside the top-20 in fantasy points, and Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze have combined for just one top-30 game in the last three weeks. Again, I would like to stress: that this was supposed to be the easy part of their schedule.
Over the next six weeks, the Bears have the following schedule: Green Bay, Minnesota, at Detroit, at San Francisco, at Minnesota, and versus Detroit. Those teams all rank outside the top ten in catch rate, yards per pass attempt, and touchdown rate. And they are all in the top ten in lowest quarterback rating, and interception rating, and only the Lions rank outside the top half of the league in sack rate (though Za’Darius Smith probably changes that).
It’s going to be a nightmare of a schedule coming up for the Bears’ passing. I do not begrudge you if you choose to abandon the passing game in your fantasy football leagues.
