It’s been yet another wild and wooly week in the NFL! Diontae Johnson is a Raven, Anthony Richardson gets to take the rest of the season off, every wide receiver that previously wasn’t hurt is now hurt and National Tight End Day (did you know that it was National Tight End Day on Sunday?) went off as planned. But, now it’s week nine, and the halfway point of the NFL season. Only two teams are on bye, but with all that’s changed recently in the NFL, you might have a hole in your roster. If you do, then we are here to help. Every week, we highlight three players available in at least 50% of leagues who should have a big game this weekend. For those of you who love to talk about how deep your league is, we also provide one player available in at least 90% of leagues. If everyone is rostered, then maybe touch grass? I don’t know, I paid 22% of my FAAB for Parker Washington this week, so who am I to talk about touching grass?
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert at Cleveland (44% rostered)
Justin Herbert made his way onto plenty of waiver wires after a slow start to the season. Through four weeks, he averaged 22.8 pass attempts per game, for 144.5 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions per game. The Chargers seemed destined to lean on J.K. Dobbins and the running game. Predictably, Dobbins has started to slip, and Justin Herbert’s passing production has gone up since the week five bye. In the last three games, Herbert averaged 35 pass attempts per game, for 288.3 yards, and has 3 touchdowns in 3 games. He took on a Saints team last week that is middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and finished with his first 20+ point game of the season (24.06, to be exact). This week, he gets a Browns team that just let three of the last four quarterbacks to play against them score 20+ fantasy points. The one QB who didn’t, Joe Burrow, still finished with just a hair under 15 fantasy points. Herbert is getting more usage, and the Browns are a beatable pass defense. His rostership makes him first on this list, but I would start him behind the other two guys, here.
Bo Nix at Baltimore (32% rostered)
Bo Nix has been a top-9 quarterback in three out of the last four weeks. In the one game where he didn’t pull this off, he was QB18 because he was too busy watching Javonte Williams run all over the Saints. Nix is doing it with his arm, and with his legs. Sunday made it four straight weeks where Nix finished with at least 6 fantasy points on the ground, which buoyed his overall production. But, this week’s matchup is one that you can definitely throw on. The Ravens allow the most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest completion rate over expectation (CPOE%), on the ninth-highest average depth of target (aDOT). A lot of this comes because they allow the ninth-highest reception rate, on the sixth-highest deep ball pass rate. Long story short: teams are throwing deep, and completing passes at a ridiculous rate. Bo Nix has another top-ten week in him this week.
Joe Flacco at Minnesota (10% rostered)
The newest starting quarterback will most definitely, assuredly, play 100% of snaps this weekend. If he takes himself out for even one snap, then there will be hell to pay. Flacco brings the flailing Colts offense some much-needed stability at the position, and an ability for the offensive weaponry to flourish. If you want an idea of how much better this makes the passing game: In four of five games where Richardson did not leave early with an injury, he finished with ten or fewer completions. Joe Flacco had 16, 22, and 33 completions in his three games this season. The Vikings started off strong this season, allowing fewer than 15 fantasy points to each of the first three quarterbacks to play against them. But, they’ve allowed 18.8 or more fantasy points to three quarterbacks in their last four games, including multiple passing touchdowns to four-straight QBs.
Wide Receivers
Darius Slayton at Washington (15% rostered)
Over the last few weeks, the balance of power behind Malik Nabers shifted from Wan’Dale Robinson to Darius Slayton. Slayton has at least seven targets in three of his last four games and has 32 targets in that timeframe. He’s WR14 in the last four weeks, scoring 54.8 fantasy points in that span (13.7 PPR points per game). The Commanders are coming on as a strong defense, and they stifled the Bears’ passing game last week. However, the Giants already faced these Commanders, and Malik Nabers & Wan’Dale Robinson combined for just under 40 fantasy points back in week two.
Parker Washington at Philadelphia (4% rostered)
Washington will benefit from the massive reduction of available players in the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver corps. Washington played in over 75% of snaps last weekend, given the decimation in among the receivers. It’s like that one of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. return this weekend, but I doubt both return. That means more for Washington, who the Jaguars went to last season when Christian Kirk went down. In four games after Kirk’s injury last year, Washington averaged 5 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 30 yards per game. He scored twice in those four games. This is a “chase the volume” play, especially against these Eagles. They currently allow the eleventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but a spate of good matchups (the Deshaun Watson Browns, Tee Higgines-less Bengals, and the regular New York Giants) have found them allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last three weeks.
Jalen Coker versus New Orleans (3% rostered)
The Panthers and Saints will square off on Sunday as much-diminished versions of themselves, as the Panthers traded Diontae Johnson, put Xavier Legette on the injury report late in the week, and are questionable to remove Adam Thielen from the injured list. On the other side, the Saints will be decimated in the secondary without Paulson Adebo, and potentially without a mix of Marshon Lattimore, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Rico Payton this week. That’s four of their top five cornerbacks on the shelf, almost enough to make the Panthers passing game intriguing this weekend. Coker seems to be the most healthy of the bunch, and he finished last week with six targets, four catches, 78 yards, and a touchdown.
Running Backs
Tyjae Spears versus New England (46% rostered)
Tyjae missed the last few games, but Tony Pollard is yet to practice this week, so Tyjae could be in for a big workload this week. If he doesn’t go, then it’ll be Julius Chestnut getting this matchup. This is more about the matchup than the player. The Patriots have yielded six 9+ PPR days to running backs in the last three games, and have given up the second-most touchdowns to running backs on the season.
Tyler Allgeier versus Dallas (37% rostered)
If you are a Patreon subscriber, you know what this means. But, there is an actual case to be made for Tyler Allgeier this week. First, the Falcons have the second-highest implied points total on the week, with 27.25 (just a quarter-point behind the #1 Baltimore Ravens), so there will be a lot of scoring and production to go around. Second, Allgeier has at least 12 touches in two of the last three games, giving him a decent volume floor for production. Third, the Cowboys are really bad, and it only took a handful of quality drives for the 49ers to turn their Sunday Night Football game into a blowout next week. That means a lot of garbage time touches for Allgeier as they run out the clock. Finally, the Cowboys are dreadful against running backs, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game, and the eighth-most fantasy points per carry this season.
Miles Sanders versus New Orleans (2% rostered)
I fully understand what putting two Panthers on this list means for my sanity and people’s ability to take me seriously. But, it’s a bad week for streaming running backs (see the Tyler Allgeier inclusion) and Sanders ranks eleventh in running back targets over the last four weeks, thanks to seven targets last week in Bryce Young’s return to action. His 34% of snaps last week were the second-highest of the last five weeks for Sanders, and this is purely a “he’ll probably catch some passes” PPR play in a decimated Panthers passing game.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz at N.Y. Giants (37% rostered)
The old man just keeps doing it, he has 11, 11, and 7 targets in the last three games, and he’s finished as the TE11, TE9, and TE10, respectively. He’s a walking backend TE1 and is the perfect one-week replacement for George Kittle, or the permanent replacement if you’ve been riding the Pat Freiermuth train off of the rails. The Giants are a bad matchup on paper (4th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends) but only three tight ends have more than three targets against them this season, and two scored double-digit points, Jake Ferguson and… Zach Ertz.
Hunter Henry at Tennessee (36% rostered)
Henry has at least 6 targets in three-straight games for the Drake Maye-led Patriots, which includes last week’s game with Jacoby Brissett taking over. The six targets in that game made me very intrigued, as it indicates that Henry’s usage isn’t just a Drake Maye mirage, it’s a part of the game plan. Henry has two games start-to-finish with Drake Maye, who should be back, and he has 30.3 fantasy points in those two games combined. The Titans are not a good matchup on paper, but three tight ends had 8+ PPR points in their three games since their bye, which is all three that had at least four targets.
Jonnu Smith at Buffalo (3% rostered)
Walker Kelly’s sneaky start for the last couple of weeks, and a guy who made the sleepers list two weeks ago, Jonnu Smith is on a mini-tear lately. He finished out the Tyler Huntley Era going 7/796/1 and started off the Tua return with 4 catches for 20 yards… on 6 targets. The 13 targets in two games interest me in Jonnu this week. The Bills are a neutral matchup against tight ends, but much like the Giants, it’s because nobody uses the tight end against them. Only one tight end has double-digit fantasy points against them this season: Jonnu Smith.
