Next week’s action marks the halfway point of the NFL regular season, meaning we are halfway done with our fantasy leagues. With the fantasy playoffs looming, things are gaining clarity around the NFL. Some hot starts (and not-so-hot starts) are falling apart, and some bad starts are coming together. And, surprisingly, some rookies are coming through. Let’s take a look at some questions from week eight in what will be a bit late edition of this week’s Absurdity Check… I spent yesterday watching Dak Prescott get knocked around by the Niners, my apologies. Let’s get going, shall we?
Should We Move on From J.K Dobbins?
As I write this, J.K. Dobbins is RB18 on the season in points per game, and RB22 over the last three weeks in points per game. He’s been a valuable part of your fantasy football lineup every week, scoring double-digit PPR points in three straight games, and five of seven games on the season. But, there’s a massive issue looming that has me itchy about J.K. Dobbins: the recovery from the Achilles injury. But Jeff, you say, he’s recovered from the Achilles, that’s why he’s playing! Well, we’ve seen one other running back come back from an Achilles tear on the same timeline as J.K. Dobbins, and Dobbins is trodding the same path as 2022 James Robinson.
While I don’t believe that the Chargers will cut J.K. Dobbins, I do believe that his efficiency will continue to wane until the Chargers turn more to Kimani Vidal or Gus Edwards (once he returns from his injury) with increasing frequency. James Robinson started the season hot back in 2022, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 17 carries per contest. He was back, or so we thought. From week three until the end of the season, the Achilles repair wore on him, and he lost explosiveness. He looked sluggish running the ball, and the rest of the season saw him finish with 7.4 attempts per game on 3.31 yards per attempt; a distinct difference.
While Dobbins isn’t losing touches (the Chargers have nowhere else to go), his efficiency is nosediving, as he finished the first three games of the season with 7.4 yards per carry on 14 carries per game, forcing a missed tackle on 25% of his carries, and carrying a 9.5% explosive run rate. After game three, he still has the volume (17.5 carries per game) but his rushing efficiency is down to 3.2 yards per carry, he forces a missed tackle on 10% of his carries, and his explosive run rate dropped to 1.4%… second-to-last among running backs with at least 50 carries in the last four weeks. He’s been stuffed on 57% of his carries since week four, compared to 45% in the first three weeks of the season.
Dobbins has touchdowns and volume to his name, which have buoyed his value. However, below-the-hood numbers indicate that he just isn’t the same back he was to start the season, and he’s likely to get worse. I would say that it’s time to move on from J.K. Dobbins and try to trade him and another player for an upgrade. You don’t want to be left holding this grenade.
Can We Finally Trust Mark Andrews Again?
Don’t look now, but Mark Andrews has at least four targets in four straight games, garnering 18 targets in the last four contests after getting just 9 targets in the first four games of the season. He hit the fantasy skids, and he had more games with zero points (two) than he had finished inside the top ten (one) in the first five games of the season.
But, two very important developments have happened in the last few weeks that make Mark Andrews a reliable part of your fantasy football squad going forward. First, Mark Andrews’ route run data. Andrews ran routes on 69% of passing plays in week one, 68% in week two, and dropped down to 23.5% route run rate. He slowly crept upwards but stayed below 60% until this last week, when the Ravens hit the reset on his usage. Mark Andrews finished week eight with a 67.4% route share, which ranked behind only Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman on the team. It marked just the second time since week three that Andrews finished third (or better) on the team in routes run.
Second, ten zone targets. I don’t particularly care about the red zone when it comes to tight end targets, as they don’t generally get long targets or long catch-and-run plays. But, they do make a lot of good money from inside the ten. And unfortunately, Mark Andrews was broke at the bank of the end zone until the last couple of weeks. He had zero targets inside the ten-yard line from weeks one through six. He has 50% of the targets inside the ten zone in the last two weeks, indicating a willingness to use him in the important part of the field.
You can start Mark Andrews with confidence going forward, he’s running more routes, getting more targets, and getting high-value targets in the end zone.
Is Bo Nix Must-Start?
Bo Nix finished week eight as QB2, marking the third time in the last four games that the rookie signal-caller finished ninth or better on the week. He did it by beating up on a woeful Panthers defense that let him slice and dice them into teeny tiny pieces. He only rushed for four yards… and a touchdown, marking the fourth-straight game that Nix had at least 6 fantasy points from his legs. He also set career highs in passing yardage, passing touchdowns, and yards per pass attempt. That is to say, Bo Nix’s week eight was the best game of his career. But, is it enough to make him a must-start quarterback going forward?
Well, yes and no. First, let’s strip out week ten from this. He plays the Chiefs, and Steve Spagnuolo puts opposing quarterbacks in a blender. Fancy Zach Wilson just doesn’t have it in him to topple the giants of their division. But, around that is a feast of good options to start Nix. Next week, he gets the Ravens, who just had their guts stomped out by Jameis Winston to the tune of 300 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, and who allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last three weeks (and five weeks, too!). After KC, it’s the Falcons. A bad Derek Carr performance has kept them out of a high rank in the last five weeks, but in the last three weeks, they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. After that is a neutral matchup with the Raiders, and then the Browns, who are tenth in fantasy points allowed to QBs over the last three weeks.
So, for the foreseeable future, Bo Nix isn’t a must-start, or else I would start him against Kansas City, but I’m definitely breaking ties for him. His passing is coming around, and his legs are giving him a steady floor of production.
