Week seven of the NFL season was a truly bizarre one. Russell Wilson might be good? The Niners might be bad? And the Jags’ demise might have been exaggerated. We’re now… more or less… halfway through the fantasy football regular season, and things continue to change. Let’s look back at week seven’s action and answer some exceptionally pressing questions after most of the action is done.
Is Tank Bigsby A Must-Start Running Back Going Forward?
Travis Etienne missed the Jaguars-Patriots England tilt, AKA “The Game that Saved Doug Pederson’s Career in Jacksonville.” I wrote last week about Brian Thomas, Jr. being legitimate (he caught all five of his targets for 89 and a touchdown this week, which is no big deal). Bigsby finished the game with 26 carries for 118 yards and two touchdowns. As I write this, he is RB6 on the week, two weeks after finishing as RB1, finishing as RB46 in the middle.
With Etienne on the shelf, Bigsby was The Man, playing on 40 of Trevor Lawrence’s 61 dropbacks, with D’Ernest Johnson working in here and there. The 90 rushing yards in this game mark the third time in the last four tilts that he finished with at least 90 rushing yards, something that Etienne has done just once in his last eighteen games, per PFF’s Nate Jahnke.
This is, unfortunately, a major problem for Travis Etienne managers. Bigsby took a step forward this season, looking like the more competent runner in all aspects. While he still lacks in the receptions department (one catch on two targets for the year), he’s the better runner on the Jags, averaging three more rushing yards over expectation than Travis Etienne on any given carry, and 3.5 more yards after contact per attempt.
But, the question wasn’t “Is Tank Bigsby the best runner on the Jags?” (as of right now, he is). The question was if he was a must-start going forward. The upcoming schedule isn’t particularly intriguing for a rushing-only back. They get the Packers (26th in EPA/rush allowed), Eagles (16th), Vikings (31st), and Lions (23rd) before their bye. So, it’s going to be tough sledding for Bigsby moving forward in a targetless role. Those four teams are also a combined 19-6, meaning that there isn’t likely to be a positive game script for the 2-5 Jaguars before their bye.
While you should thank your lucky stars if you started Bigsby this week, it’s probably time to go sniffing around the panicking Travis Etienne manager to see what you can get for Bigsby. If you can get a rock-solid starter, then I would go for that. If you can’t, then Bigsby is in the weekly flex conversation but for the time being… he isn’t a must-start back.
Is David Njoku a League-Winning Tight End?
Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles this week, and the NFL world rejoiced. But, one fantasy football analyst, while sitting in Santa Clara (and watching his beloved 49ers lose to Patrick Mahomes… again) thought of one thing in particular: It’s David Njoku SZN. I was all the way out on David Njoku headed into the season for one reason, and one reason only: Deshaun Watson. For whatever reason, Watson and Njoku never got on the same page, and Kevin Stefanski used Njoku in an extremely strange way with Watson (he had a 1.4 average depth of target with Watson in 2023, and a 3.9 average depth of target this season). Now, he’s free of the shackles of Deshaun Watson, and it’s already paying dividends.
Njoku ended his first game without Amari Cooper, and his first half-game without Deshaun Watson, with 10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets. Back of napkin math (because I’m just a normie, and I don’t get fancy advanced data yet) tells me that Njoku had five catches on five targets for 44 yards with Watson, and 5/9/32/1 without Watson. So, he was already well on his way to being a top-ten tight end when Watson went down around half-time (first-half Njoku is currently TE12 on the week). So, it seems as though David Njoku was going to be a slam dunk tight end this week even if karma didn’t rear its ugly head on Watson. Without Watson, he had 14.2 fantasy points, which would have been TE5 on the week so far, a dominating figure.
That tells me that the Browns have one massive plan going forward, and it’s David Njoku. He finished with a 29% target share with Deshaun Watson, and a 26% target share with the other quarterbacks on the roster. Both of those figures would lead all tight ends in the NFL. Evan Engram currently leads all tight ends in the league with a 25.8% target share, with only Engram, Trey McBride, and George Kittle topping the 23% target share (though that’s going to change for Brock Bowers).
With a one-game sample size for the new-look Browns without Amari Cooper, we currently have David Njoku as TE1 on the week. It doesn’t matter who is under center, there are only three other tight ends I would start over Njoku: George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride. David Njoku won leagues last year after Watson went down (6.1 receptions for 72.1 yards per game, with 4 touchdowns in 7 games after the Browns lost Watson), and he’s set to do the same thing, again, this season.
Is the Colts’ Passing Game Hands-Off?
If you had Josh Downs over the last few weeks, Joe Flacco had you loving life. Downs averaged 10 targets for 8 catches and 72.3 yards per game with Flacco, with Joe Flacco chucking the ball 26, 44, and 38 times (36 pass attempts per game). Things came crashing down this week, as Anthony Richardson and the run-first Colts returned, and Richardson threw the ball only 24 times, which marks just the second time in five games that Anthony Richardson had more than 20 pass attempts.
His limited passing attempts lead to limited passing outputs, with Richardson throwing for an average of 178 passing yards per game (excluding his injury game), without topping 212 passing yards and passing 170 passing yards just twice. Joe Flacco simply had a bigger passing game, thanks to his pass attempts (and 716 passing yards in three games), and Anthony Richardson just doesn’t have that in him. I am fully hands-off of all Colts pass catchers at this point, but I will still stash Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, just in case we get more Joe Flacco. Until then, I don’t trust them, Jonathan Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce to split 22 or so targets per game.
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/David_Njoku_%2851654870984%29.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
