It’s on to week six, and we had some big wins last week! You could have gotten ahead of the field on Joe Flacco, Josh Downs, Tyrone Tracy, Jordan Whittington, and Tucker Kraft. Or, you could have fallen on your face with Deshaun Watson, Justice Hill, Antonio Gibson, or Erick All! But, still a great week last week! Let’s try to roll that forward in week six with the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings all on bye. This list consists of two players at each position available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, with one available in at least 90% of those leagues.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones versus Cincinnati (17% rostered)
Daniel Jones has been low-key good at fantasy football this season. He’s finished as a top-12 quarterback in three of the last four games, and he did it last week without Malik Nabers. With Nabers set to return this week against the Bengals, we are looking at another good fantasy week from Danny Dimes. The Bengals allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Red Rifle took this team for 16.7 fantasy points in week four.
Daniel Jones has been impressive, himself (thanks to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson). He’s eleventh in the league in passing yards, thirteenth in passing touchdowns and tied for seventeenth in interceptions. While his per-attempt rate isn’t too impressive (last in yards per attempt), he makes up for it with tons of dropbacks: Jones ranks seventh in dropbacks so far this season. While he won’t wow you on a per-play basis (that’s Malik Nabers’ job), he will volume his way into production.
Andy Dalton versus Atlanta (11% rostered)
Andy Dalton was bad last week, just truly horrendous. I’m not going to sugarcoat that. He finished with 136 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and a pick… it all added up to 3.74 fantasy points. That having been said, he played the team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, the Chicago Bears. Dalton marks the fifth quarterback in five weeks to fail to put up 15 fantasy points, with only C.J. Stroud crossing the seven fantasy point threshold.
But, Dalton isn’t facing the Bears this week. The Panthers will take on the division-rival Atlanta Falcons, who have had three of the last four quarterbacks against them drop at least 16 fantasy points, with Derek Carr failing to hit the number. It’s a good matchup to exploit, though expect a pick or two along the way.
Will Levis at Indianapolis (9% rostered)
Now, hear me out. Don’t panic. Don’t freak out. It’s okay. Yes, I understand that Will Levis isn’t the best quarterback in the world. I would say, however, that he’s firmly… top-fifty. That having been said, Will Levis has faced a gauntlet this season, going up against the bottom three teams in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and the Packers, who allow the eleventh-fewest fantasy points to the position. That is to say: he was never going to be good in any of those games. And boy howdy, he wasn’t! Levis averages 10.6 fantasy points per game in the three games that he didn’t leave early.
But, this is about the Colts. The Colts have given Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence their first 300+ yard passing days in consecutive weeks. Those three quarterbacks threw for 349 passing yards per game against the Colts while throwing for 175.5 yards per game against the rest of the NFL: that’s almost exactly double their per-game yardage. That’s baffling. Like, truly mindboggling stuff. Those three quarterbacks also totaled 7 touchdowns in their three games against the Colts, and 12 in their other 12 games. Crazier things have happened, why wouldn’t this work? Coincidentally, that’s Will Levis’s life philosophy. Let’s ride, baby.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy at Philadelphia (43% rostered)
It didn’t work out last week, but I am going to trust the four games before that, where Jeudy averaged 7.5 targets per game, over the 3 targets last week. The opportunity has been there all season, and with Amari Cooper likely on his way out, this could be the coming out game for Jeudy as the Browns’ WR1. The Eagles make for a good bounce-back matchup for Jeudy. According to FantasyPoints’ Data Suite’s WR Coverage Matchup tool, 61 receivers have at least 100 routes this season, and the coverage matchup grade for Jeudy ranks top-20.
So, he should have himself a good week against the Eagles. That is something that isn’t as rare as Eagles fans would like, as nine different receivers have at least 9 PPR fantasy points against them this season, which comes just short of two per game. Even if Amari Cooper gets his (which he should, despite having a worse matchup coverage grade than Jeudy), there will be enough left over for Jeudy.
Jalen Tolbert versus Detroit (27% rostered)
Don’t look now, but Tolbert is the WR2 in Dallas. Brandin Cooks hit the IR with complications from a knee scope, which sounds horrifying. Tolbert stepped up in a big way last week, posting 7 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown. This big game wasn’t anything new for Tolbert this season, as he has at least 13 PPR points in three of his last four games, notching two scores in the last three. The Cowboys can’t rely on the running game, so they will need to get Tolbert involved yet again. He has two games this season with 9+ targets, and I fully expect that to be three after this week.
The Cowboys will take on the Lions, who are the most run funnel team imaginable: they allow the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs… and that’s with Kenneth Walker popping off for three touchdowns before the Bye.
Ray-Ray McCloud III at Carolina (9% rostered)
While Darnell Mooney (rightly) got all the publicity after the Thursday Night Football win, McCloud quietly put together a 6/66 game on nine targets. While Cousins won’t throw for over 500 yards every game, that marked the second-straight game for McCloud with at least 6 catches for 50 yards. His 16 targets in the last two games marked the third and fourth time this season that he had at least 5 targets in a game, as well. That all is to say that McCloud is a key part of the Falcons’ passing game, and I will not chalk up his explosion last week up to Cousins throwing a ton.
McCloud gets a nice matchup this week, taking on the Panthers. Carolina allows the tenth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and gave up 10 catches for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns to the top two options in Chicago last week. McCloud will benefit from a lax Carolina defense as the Panthers begin their slow backslide to the #7 pick in the 2025 draft.
Running Backs
Tyrone Tracy Jr. versus Cincinnati (34% rostered)
Tracy showed last week that he deserves a spot in the running back rotation for the Giants, posting 19 touches for 130 total yards. He finished with 14 fantasy points on the dot, and it was good for RB19 last week. All of that was more impressive than anything that Devin Singletary, who is still banged up, has put together in his stint with the Giants. While Singletary hasn’t been bad, Tracy tapped into a potential that will be difficult to put back into the bottle. The Bengals are a great matchup, with six different running backs notching at least ten fantasy points against them in their first five games of the season. Only one team had a viable 1B (the Commanders), and both their guys notched double-digit days.
Roschon Johnson versus Jacksonville (24% rostered)
Roschon Johnson has three touchdowns in his last three games and has notched double-digit fantasy days in two of three games. He’s averaging 10 opportunities per contest and is getting the goal-line work for the Bears, now, too. He’s become the 1B to D’Andre Swift’s 1A, so he will need to get out from behind Swift’s shadow to really dominate, but he’s looking at at least 10 touches, with one or two of them inside the five-yard line. The Jags, for their part, are the fourth-best matchup for running backs, allowing 27.28 fantasy points per game to the position so far this year. Johnson, like Tracy, is a 1B who should take advantage of his touches in a good matchup.
Dare Ogunbowale at New England (5% rostered)
Don’t look now, but Ogunbowale has over 30 fantasy points in the last two games combined. He hasn’t been efficient on the ground (17 carries for 37 yards), but a touchdown and 10 catches for 104 combined yards will go a long way to cure his rushing ails. With Joe Mixon likely still on the shelf for this weekend, and Dameon Pierce & Cam Akers having as much third-down value as I do, I expect Ogunbowale to be the hurry-up, third-down, and two-minute drill back thanks to his blocking and his hands. This is a pure needle-threading play: he needs to get a ton of targets in what might just be a blowout. The Patriots are one of the league’s worst teams and are starting Drake Maye. While they allow the eleventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, it is reasonable to take pause at the idea of Ogunbowale losing touches thanks to a Texans blowout.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin versus Buffalo (35% rostered)
Ty Conkowski continues to get targets for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and he won’t lose them because of Robert Saleh getting fired. Conklin has 6, 8, and 9 targets in the last three weeks, and has finished in the top twelve in two of those three weeks without a touchdown, which is quite a feat at tight end. The Bills are a neutral matchup, mostly because their games have been really… weird. I wouldn’t worry about Conklin getting “shut down” by Buffalo. If he doesn’t score fantasy points, that’s just good old fashion Jets’ ineptitude. Injetpitude?
Cade Otton at New Orleans (34% rostered)
Our Windsprint King finished last week with only 7.4 fantasy points, but it marked his third-straight game with at least four targets. His two games before last week were better, as he posted 7/47 and 6/52 in weeks three and four. This week, he gets New Orleans’ questionable tight end defense; the Saints have given up the eleventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, with Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and… Luke Schoonmaker… all finishing with double-digit points on the week.
Juwan Johnson versus Tampa Bay (9% rostered)
I will always go back to the Juwan Johnson well, at any given opportunity. Despite (or maybe because of) Spencer Rattler starting on Sunday, I still would go to Juwan Johnson if I was desperate. He had five targets last week, finishing with 5 catches for 31 yards (and a respectable 8.1 PPR points). It marked his highest targets, catches, yards, and snap share (78%) of the season… mostly because the Saints forgot he existed in weeks two and three. That having been said, going to Spencer Rattler should end up with a lot of designed dump-offs to Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson. Only two tight ends have more than four targets against the Saints, and both came in the last two weeks; Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts combined for 14 catches for 150 yards against the Buccos.
Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Daniel_Jones_vs_Washington_2020.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0
