Week four might have been the most interesting week of football yet. We had many narratives cohere, some more fall apart, and we had certain previously must-start players fall off the map (or be lost until 2026(?!). Let’s look at the week that was and answer some pressing questions about the week that may or may not be overreactions. Let’s dive into this week’s Absurdity Check!
Is Kyle Pitts Over?
It seems like the Kyle Pitts were promised out of college, and who showed flashes of promise in week one, is so far gone that he’s a speck in the rearview mirror. He finished week four with zero fantasy points in all formats (except point per target?) as he finished with zero catches for zero yards on three targets. That’s right, you had as many yards as Kyle Pitts did (unless you happen to be on the Denver Broncos). This marks the third time in four games that Kyle Pitts failed to finish inside the top-12 at the position, with a 3/26/1 effort in week one marking the sole time that Pitts crossed the eight fantasy point threshold.
Here’s the thing: Kyle Pitts should have scored a bunch of fantasy points this week. They’ve played two real tight ends (all respect to the completely unused Carolina TE room), and both put in double-digit fantasy point days against them: Luke Schoonmaker finished with six catches for 43 yards on six targets, and Dallas Goedert exploded for ten catches and 173 yards on eleven targets last week. And, Kyle Pitts goes 0/3.
This isn’t anything new this season, either. After his touchdown game in week one, he took on the Eagles. Philly this week gave up a big game to Cade Otton (6 catches for 52 yards) but not Kyle Pitts (3 catches for 20 yards). In week three, Pitts took on the Chiefs. The Chiefs gave up massive games in weeks one and two to Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki, who combined to average 8 catches for 101 yards. Pitts? 2 catches for 59 yards. Kyle Pitts consistently fails to live up to expectations against opposing defenses, leaving you no choice but to not start him.
I won’t go as far as to say to cut him in anything deeper than a ten-teamer, but if you’re in an eight or ten-team league, how can you start Kyle Pitts? He is currently TE22 in PPR points per game (6.1), between Erick All and Nick Vannett. He might break out in two weeks against the Panthers, but at a certain point you have to say enough is enough and call Kyle Pitts what he is: a blob tight end.
Is Sam Darnold Must-Start?
I’m still not sure if Sam Darnold is real, or if he’s the same pumpkin-headed guy we saw in Carolina and New York. He’s a new man, throwing for multiple touchdowns in all four games this season, and he’s seventh in passing yards and first in passing touchdowns. He’s also finished inside the top eight at the position three straight weeks against two good defenses (and the Packers). All of this adds up to being QB6 on the season, at 20.3 fantasy points per game. He has a tough couple of weeks coming up, with literally the worst quarterback matchup (the Jets) and the bye week coming up. So, I wouldn’t start him in the next couple of weeks. But here’s the thing… he’s not a must-start, because this is a BACKDOOR BAKER MAYFIELD TOPIC.
Sam Darnold has gotten all the accolades, mostly because the Vikings are 4-0 and have knocked off three 2023 playoff teams. But, Baker Mayfield has been a better fantasy football quarterback than Sam Darnold. He’s averaging nearly 2 points per game more than Darnold (22 versus 20.3). His QB27 finish against the stifling Denver Broncos defense (stop laughing, it’s true) is the only time this season that he’s finished outside of the top five on the week. Granted, four quarterbacks will play on Monday, and he’s only QB3… but two of the quarterbacks are Will Levis and Snoop Huntley, so we’re fine to call him top-five on the week. Baker Mayfield is doing it with a bevy of weapons, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and even Cade Otton have all had big games this season. This week, he embarrassed the Eagles for the second time in six games, the same Eagles team that shut down Derek Carr’s fantasy run last week. Things get a bit tougher for him in the next couple of weeks, going against the Falcons and Saints in the next two games; both teams sit in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Has the BTJ Killer Arrived?
Don’t look now, but Brian Thomas, Jr. has 18 targets in the last two games, taking over from Gabriel Davis as the team’s WR2. And, in that span, the Jaguars actually won a game! Their first one of the season! He led the Jaguars on Sunday to the tune of 9 targets, 8 catches, 86 yards, and a touchdown. He has become a key part of the offense and will benefit from the Jaguars giving all their receivers a ton of run. This week, all three receivers played at least 44 of Trevor Lawrence’s 58 dropbacks, with Gabe Davis leading the way with 46. Davis, Christian Kirk, and BTJ also all ran between 27 and 30 routes, indicating that they were all getting involved. While Kirk had the most targets, Brian Thomas was the most productive.
This game marks the third time in four games that Brian Thomas has finished inside the top 30 in fantasy production. But, his other two games were predicated on low-volume high-variance long plays. This was a more “normal” game by wide receiver standards. He had 9 targets, just like last week, with an extra catch, 38 extra yards, and a touchdown. Brian Thomas Jr. is here to stay and will take over as a weekly starter in three wide receiver leagues very soon. The Jaguars get the porous Colts passing defense next week, which means more for him going forward.
