With three weeks now in the books, the NFL landscape is starting to take shape. Are the Vikings good? Are the Panthers… not? Is the changing of the guard coming in multiple backfields? Let’s dive into these questions with the Week Three Absurdity Check!
Are the Vikings a Defense to Avoid?
The Houston Texans were supposed to be an offense to attack in drafts this season. With injuries to Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, the running game ended in week three. However, the robust passing game also seemed to fall apart in week three. They allowed the Stefon Diggs Revenge Game to go off without a hitch (but it took them 12 targets to get him 94 yards…). Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz all struggled to pop off this week, with Nico, Stroud, and Schultz all posting their lowest fantasy games of the season. Are the Texans in trouble, or is it something more unseen that is going to give fantasy managers fits?
It’s the second thing. It’s Brian Flores. It’s the reason why he’s going to replace Nick Sirianni in Philadelphia next offseason. The Brian Flores defense is deadly, and it’s causing fits to every team that plays them. They’ve stifled opponents in three-straight games this season, with the Texans (17 fewer points than average), 49ers (11 fewer points than average), and Giants (13.5 points fewer than average) all being woefully inadequate to stand up against Brian Flores’ defensive scheming.
The Vikings are stifling in all regards. When the opponent is passing, they allow the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, sixth-highest interception rate, and the most sacks in the league. When the opponent runs, they allow the third-lowest yards per carry, and they have allowed just one rushing touchdown in three games.
The Vikings have their first real test next week: a road game at Green Bay… if Jordan Love returns. They then have the Jets and their Bye. Unless something changes in those two games, this is going to be a squad that I avoid for the foreseeable future.
Did Andy Dalton Save the Panthers’ Fantasy Football Options?
Just like we all predicted, Andy Dalton was the first 300-yard, 3-touchdown passer of the season. He came off the bench for Bryce Young, and carved up the Raiders’ defense, salvaging fantasy seasons for Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, and even everyone’s favorite stash, Jonathon Brooks.
Some folks want to point out that it was against the Raiders, but… the Raiders have been good on defense so far this season. They took on the the Chargers and Ravens so far this season, and both teams destroyed them on the ground (fourth-highest rushing yards per game), and the Raiders held both Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson under 200 passing yards (at the 12th-lowest yards per attempt). So, Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins have done a great job of making it difficult to pass, but teams ran all over them.
That makes me exceptionally excited about the Panthers’ outcome in week three. While we could expect the running game to get along well, the Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Andy Dalton games all came out of nowhere. Johnson had a career-high 122 yards, on 8 catches (and one touchdown). Thielen could have had a bigger day, but his third catch, a touchdown, came with a hamstring injury that cost him the rest of the game.
The Panthers have tough games coming up on the schedule, with a home game against the Bengals and a road game against the Bears on the docket. We can go back to Diontae Johnson (thank God), and Andy Dalton has a 2QB league appeal. But, I doubt that it goes much deeper than that.
Are the Broncos, Bears, Raiders, and Buccaneers About to Switch Up Their Backfields?
In week three, Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, and the Brothers White (Zamir & Rachaad) all took a step back within their respective backfields, and this might indicate a change on the horizon.
The Broncos
I’ve been barking all offseason about how the Broncos will not let Javonte Williams be a lead back, mostly because Javonte Williams outside of the Broncos down the stretch, has never been a lead back. That’s never been more evident than it was in week three against the Buccaneers.
Javonte Williams finished with about half the running back snaps, as he played on 51% of snaps, compared to 26% for Jaleel McLaughlin, and 19% for Tyler Badie. That’s an encouraging set of events for Williams, but that’s where the encouraging statistics stop. Williams finished with 4 targets and 5 carries (9 opportunities), McLaughlin finished with 2 carries and 4 targets (6 opportunities), and Tyler Badie finished with 9 carries (9 opportunities). With a scant 24 opportunities split three ways, he tied for first with 37.5% of the running back opportunities. Even more woeful? It was Jaleel McLaughlin, who had the 4th & 1 carry at the goal line, for the touchdown.
The Broncos backfield appears as though nobody is going to take the lead, with Javonte, Badie, and McLaughlin devolving into a disgusting three-way mess. Imagine how bad things will get once their best running back, Audric Estimé, returns.
The Skinny: Javonte will have PPR value, and McLaughlin will have some streaming.
The Bears
D’Andre Swift played on just over 50% of snaps, with 53.3% of running back snaps going Swift’s way. Unfortunately, he did nothing with them. He finished with 13 carries for 20 yards, and 4 targets, 2 catches, and 22 yards through the air. So far on the season, Swift has redefined ineptitude: 37 carries for 68 yards. While nothing much changed in this one, that change must be on the horizon. Swift lost snaps to Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert.
Swift ran 28 routes (Johnson/Herbert combined for 24), and had 13 carries (Johnson/Herbert combined for 12). Herbert was woefully inefficient on the ground, mustering 4 carries for 9 yards, but Roschon Johnson finished with a better-but-not-great 8 carries for 30 yards, and more importantly: 4 catches for 32 yards, on 5 targets. He cobbled together 10.2 fantasy points without a touchdown and could evolve into the pass-catching back in Chicago. That could have some value, but D’Andre Swift’s early down role is likely to disappear soon.
The Skinny: Take a flier on Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, but D’Andre Swift is on his way out of usefulness.
The Raiders
Zamir White played on 22% of snaps. That’s bad. What’s even worse: special teamer Ameer Abdullah played on 34% of snaps. Alexander Mattison, who isn’t particularly good, doubled up on White, playing on 44% of snaps. Even worse, Zamir White’s role is extremely narrow. While Abdullah and Mattison both ran 19 routes, White ran just 4. He had 10 carries, which is where he will appear to still have his usage in the Las Vegas backfield. Unfortunately, however, teams will figure out that a Zamir White snap is a run play, and key in on that: they ran the ball with white on 71.4% of his snaps in this game, making it woefully easy to decipher the play call from personnel.
The Skinny: They’re all bad and they are splitting the touches too many ways. Mattison seems to be the goal-line back, so he will have some usage.
The Buccaneers
This is where things get spicy: Rachaad White is bad. Really bad. He has 31 carries for 67 yards (2.16 yards per carry) on the season. Compare that to Bucky Irving, who has a 6.16 yards per carry (154 yards on 25 carries), and already has two games with a yards per carry higher than Rachaad White’s most efficient game. The tides are turning in Tampa Bay, with White taking a back seat in the running game to Irving (Irving out-carried White 9 to 6). While Irving has taken a back seat to White in targets (3 targets in this game to White’s 5), they will likely land in a set of roles where White doesn’t provide much (if any) fantasy value, and Irving is the player to roster. White out-snapped Irving 42-to-18 in this one, with White getting an opportunity on 26.2% of his snaps, and Irving getting an opportunity on 66.7% of snaps.
