With only the Eagles and the Falcons left to go at it tonight, we have a near-complete slate of 15 games to overreact. Is Marvin Harrison Jr. going to the Hall of Fame? Most definitely. Other than that, we have a handful of questions that might be overreactions to Sunday’s action. Let’s sort out if we are overreacting to developments from Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, the Broncos running backs, and Mike Gesicki’s sudden resurgence in Cincinnati.
Is Terry McLaurin Toast?
Terry McLaurin finished week two with just 22 yards… on six catches. He finished with 8.2 fantasy points, and some folks are scratching their heads about his usage in the Commanders’ offense, and if we should start to worry. With his 6/22 performance, he is up to 12 targets, 8 catches, and 39 yards in two games this season. He’s yet to score a touchdown, and he currently ranks outside the top 75 wide receivers in fantasy points per game.
Unfortunately, for those of you looking into this article for a shred of hope, I offer very little. He currently leads the Commanders in target share (22.6%), but has just 3.25 yards per target in his first two games. That’s not very good, but it belies his air yards share. In week one, he finished with 64% of the Commanders’ air yards, with a bonkers 20.0 average depth of target, indicating that Kliff Kingsbury was trying to use him as a downfield weapon. This past week, things were different, as he caught 75% of his passes for 22 yards, meaning his average depth of target was a tad bit lower. Unfortunately, that means that he will need to get a good amount of YAC to matter. In 2023, of the 105 receivers and tight ends to get at least 50 targets, he ranked 51st in yards after the catch, tied with Dalton Schultz and just above Logan Thomas.
So, what are we supposed to do with McLaurin? At this point, they’ve tried using him two different ways in two different games, and neither has worked. At this point, I don’t think that he’s toast, since he’s the most talented wide receiver on the Commanders. Unfortunately, I don’t know if you can do anything about that. Next week, they get the Bengals, and I don’t see McLaurin as anything better than a volume-based flex for that one, then we can reconsider.
Is Jameson Williams a Must-Start Wide Receiver?
As I write this, Jameson Williams leads the NFL in receiving yards, with 200 (tied with Chris Godwin). He finished with 121 yards in week one, so math tells us that he had 79 this week, on 5 receptions. That was 12.9 fantasy points, and he also chipped in a carry for 15 yards, putting him up to 14.4 on the day.
It goes deeper than that, though: he is already the 1b to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 1a, and it’s rendering Sam LaPorta to the dustbin. In week one, he and Sun God both ran 90.3% of routes, and he broke out. In week two, he didn’t take a step back, either: he and ARSB both ran 91.4% of routes, and they both played 92.9% of snaps. He isn’t coming off of the field, at all. The Lions spent two years patiently waiting for him to make it onto the field in week one, and they have no plans to take him off the field for the likes of Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond.
Jameson Williams has had a big two weeks, and the Lions have been working hard to get the ball into his hands (he has 22 opportunities to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 25), and he’s producing. He’s a top-20 wide receiver at this point, and you need to go out of your way to get him into your lineups.
Can We Start Any Broncos Running Backs?
The Broncos backfield was a jumbled mess on Sunday, with three different running backs splitting 15 carries. Javonte Williams led the way with 11 carries, but he had just 17 yards. Tyler Badie, who I didn’t know was a Bronco, almost matched his rushing output on one carry (for 16 yards). Jaleel McLaughlin, who was a trendy offseason sleeper for his receiving prowess, had 3 carries for 6 yards, and no targets. The one saving grace was Javonte Williams finishing with 5 targets, 5 catches, and 48 yards. But that saving grace barely got you double-digit fantasy points.
This comes on the heels of Williams, McLaughlin, and now-IRed rookie Audric Estimé combined for 20 carries for 64 yards (10/27, 8/23, and 2/14, respectively) in week one. The three also combined for 7 targets for 6 catches and 1 yard. Again: 7 targets, for six catches… and one yard.
The Broncos are the worst team in the AFC right now, and they are thanking their lucky stars that the Panthers exist, lest they be named the worst team in the NFL. They have essentially zero touchdown upside, split meager workloads, and you have to squint to find the good in their games. I have zero interest in hanging onto these guys if I can help it.
Are We Really Adding Mike Gesicki?
Really? Are we doing this?
Well, probably not. He finished with 7 receptions and 91 yards today and looked like the big and fast Gesicki of years past. As the world’s foremost Mike Gridsicki/Mike Goodsicki fan (who told you to stream him this week), this is 100% a temporary situation that will resolve itself once the Bengals are at full strength, and who aren’t playing a tight end-friendly team.
First, let’s look at the situation. Ja’Marr Chase led a wide receiver corps that saw Andre Iosivas and Trent Irwin lo the second and third-most routes run on the week. Rookie Jermaine Burton made his debut but ran only 8 routes (and had two targets). That is to say… the Bengals leaned on their tight ends. A lot. Not only Gesicki, who finished with 21 routes and 9 targets. Erick All and Drew Sample combined for 25 routes and 7 targets, as well. This has not been a hallmark of the Bengals’ system and is one borne out of necessity.
It will go away, once Tee Higgins is back, and once Jermaine Burton is fully integrated into this offense. There will simply not be enough space for Gesicki to get enough target volume to matter. That having been said, that might not be anytime soon, so Gesicki makes for an intriguing pick-up-and-play, especially since they play the woeful Commanders’ defense in week three, and the dreadful Carolina Panthers in week four!
This might have had to do with the matchup more than anything else, but they have two primo matchups on the docket, so I am saying yes, go add Mike Gesicki, he has at least two more good games in him while Tee Higgins & Jermaine Burton work their way into the starting lineup.
