With Thursday Night Football in the books, it’s time for everyone’s favorite weekly post, the weekly sleepers! And by everyone, I mean me. This is my favorite article. Why? It’s low stakes, high reward. That and Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Jamaal Williams, and others, have already made me feel invincible in this article. A player must be available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues to make this piece. One player in each category is available in at least 90% of Yahoo! leagues, to help you out.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (15% rostered) at Denver
34 yards. That was Geno Smith’s longest run last week, as he finished with 30 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The porous Denver defense allowed Smith the longest rush of his career. At this point, that’s most of what Justin Fields can offer you (14 carries for 57 yards last week), since last week made it pretty clear that he isn’t much of a passer anymore (17/23/156 passing against the Falcons). This one could fall apart late in the week if Russell Wilson is cleared to start, but Mike Tomlin stated that the Steelers are proceeding as though Fields will start in week two.
Derek Carr (15% rostered) at Dallas
Derek Carr stunted all over the Panthers last week to the tune of 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in three-quarters of real action. He did it in a myriad of ways, including dumping the ball off to Alvin Kamara, bombing it out to Rashid Shaheed, and making tough throws to Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. While the Cowboys are a much better team than the Panthers, they still let a beyond-cooked Deshaun Watson total over 200 yards and a score last week.
Daniel Jones at Washington (6% rostered)
Daniel Jones barely looked the part of an NFL quarterback last week, but this one is going to be a matchup of who wins: bad versus worse? Daniel Jones had a barely 50% completion percentage against Minnesota, and he finished with 186 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Commanders’ defense, on the other hand, let Baker Mayfield slice through them for four touchdowns en route to allowing the highest expected yards added per passing play last week, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Wide Receivers
Adonai Mitchell (27% rostered) at Green Bay
Alex Pierce got all the publicity in week one thanks to him and Anthony Richardson connecting on one of the most bonkers deep ball passes that you’ll ever see. But, Adonai Mitchell had two deep passes that were just out of his reach, leading to him having the sixth-most unrealized air yards in week one. Those unrealized air yards should come to fruition in week two thanks to the porous Green Bay pass defense. In week one, 37 wide receivers had at least 60 air yards. While the Packers played the dynamic duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith last week, they were the only team to allow two players in the top ten of RACR (the ratio of aid yards to receiving yards) last week.
Wan’Dale Robinson (13% rostered) at Washington
It sure won’t backfire on me to one-sixth of my sleepers on the Giants, but I just can’t look away from Wan’Dale Robinson’s target volume last week. He tied for second in the league last week with twelve targets, which might have been good enough for the league lead if Puka Nacua hadn’t gone down to get Cooper Kupp 21 targets. The Commanders allowed touchdowns to three different wide receivers last week en route to taking the pole position in the race for the Worst Defense in the NFL.
Jalen McMillan (6% rostered) at Detroit
Jalen McMillan ran a route on every single Baker Mayfield dropback, but he had only three targets and one catch. However, that one catch was a 32-yard touchdown from Baker Mayfield that showed off everything the Buccaneers liked about the third-round rookie. He deftly strode through the zone defense, loosening himself from the first-tier defender as the deep safety bit on a stray thought that Baker might throw a check down as he uncorked one to a wide-open McMillan. His first target was just out of reach of a second big touchdown, too. The Lions let Tyler Johnson score a long touchdown on them on Sunday Night Football. Tyler Johnson.
Running Backs
Jaleel McLaughlin (35% rostered) versus Pittsburgh
Who could have seen Javonte Williams fail to get Bell Cow usage coming? That is, except for everyone who paid attention to how he’s always been used outside of a Broncos team playing out the string at the end of 2023. Jaleel McLaughlin is as much of this offense as Javonte, and given that every Sean Payton team ever is at or near the top of running back usage, there’s plenty to go around. Last week, McLaughlin played 25-of-69 snaps, had 50% of the running back rush share, and 5-of-8 running back targets last week. His 15 touches tied him with Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson, and Zamir White. It also put him ahead of Travis Etienne. He’s getting the usage, he just has to put it all together. The Steelers played Bijan Robinson last week, so anything I quote about them here would be a waste of everybody’s time. So, let’s not do that!
Bucky Irving (29% rostered) at Detroit
Rachaad had a -7.1 EPA rushing last week, which means that his rushing attempts were so bad that cumulatively, they pulled a touchdown (and a PAT) off the board for the Buccaneers. He was bottom three among running backs in rushing EPA, Rushing Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt, and was the 12th-lowest rushing success rate among 48 qualified running backs.
Bucky Irving, on the other hand, ranked 12th in EPA/Rush, 14th in RYOE/Att, and was seventh in success rate. With Rachaad White getting exposed as a J.D. McKissic target merchant, expect the much better runner to take over this backfield in what will prove to be a shootout this week.
Justice Hill (10% rostered) versus Las Vegas
While I don’t expect the Ravens to be chasing points against the Raiders like they did the Chiefs last weekend, I expect Hill to still get enough targets to matter in this offense. Why? He could just be their third-best weapon, behind the two tight ends (forgive me, I’m still yet to see anything to make me believe in Zay Flowers long-term in the NFL). Still, he wasn’t a point-chasing mirage. In the first half of the NFL’s kickoff game, Hill played 51.4% of snaps, ran a route on 54.2% of dropbacks, and had 7.1 xFP (per FantasyPoints’ Data Suite). He’s for real, and you can get him for a song.
Tight Ends
Colby Parkinson (36% rostered) at Arizona
There was a lot of publicity for Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson in the wake of Puka Nacua’s injury, but we can’t forget Colby Parkinson. After one week, he ranks first in routes, fourth in targets, third in yards, and fourth in catches. Sean McVay has traditionally used a tight end (Tyler “Hate Crime” Higbee averages 5.35 targets per game over the last half-decade), and they signed Parkinson to a big-money deal. While the Cardinals “contained” Dalton Kincaid in week one, they are traditionally one of the worst defenses in the NFL at stopping tight ends.
Foster Moreau (4% rostered) at Dallas
If Parkinson doesn’t pique your interest, how about Foster Moreau? He finished last week with four catches, 43 yards, and a touchdown. While the touchdown doesn’t move the needle, that 4/40 line is exactly what we chase here at Football Absurdity when we stream tight ends. Why? Because targets play, and you’re probably sick of chasing touchdowns to finish with 1 catch for 8 yards, and the guy gets tackled at the one. While Moreau ran a route on only 30% of dropbacks in week one, he received a target on half of his routes. He also ranked fourth in yards per route run. None of that has to do with touchdowns.
As for the defense, the Cowboys do not defend against tight ends well (and Mike Zimmer’s LB-heavy, S-light sets won’t make this better) and only the Browns being physically incapable of throwing the ball more than 4 yards downfield to David Njoku stopped him from taking advantage of this last week.
Mike Gesicki (3% rostered) at Kansas City
Just when I think I’m out, Mike Goodsicki pulls me back in. If only he had pulled in that touchdown last week. But, that’s not what this is about. This is about where it works to attack the Chiefs’ defense: the same place that #1 FAAB priority Isaiah Likely targeted them last week. With Ja’Marr Chase working his way back from his holdout, and Tee Higgins likely still hampered by injuries, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gesicki top five targets this week and hit that mythical 4/40 line and maybe, just maybe… a Griddy or two.
