We did it, folks. We made it through the long, hard offseason. We had our drafts and we came out loving our teams! We were ready to take on the world! And then doubt crept in. What if our Kirk Cousins/Darnell Mooney stack won’t work out? What if it’s not a great idea to start your season with Gus Edwards as your RB2? What if Cole Kmet is D.O.A. with the bevy of new weapons in Chicago? Well, never fear. Just like fantasy football is back, so am I (for the eight-straight season) to let you know three weekly sleepers at every position to help you out!
To make this list, a player must be available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues. For those of you in deep leagues, at least one player at each position will be available in at least 90% of Yahoo! leagues. Let’s get this party started!
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (33% rostered) versus Washington
Washington had one of the worst pass defenses in the league last season, allowing the third-highest yards per pass attempt (7.74), the highest EPA/pass attempt (+0.10), and the highest touchdown rate (6.52%) while garnering interceptions at the second-lowest rate in the league (1.3%, behind just Tennessee). They attacked their defensive issues head-on by adding Dan Quinn to coach the squad and adding a whole bevy of okay talent, but no game-breakers. This season was about making sure Jayden Daniels was set up for success, which means that we can attack them, at least at the beginning of the season.
As for Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers basically ran back the offense as best they could, while adding Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving to the squad. Baker finished last year on a tear; including playoffs, he had at least 20 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, and at least 18 in six of seven. The one game where he didn’t pull it off was a very strange 9-0 victory over the Panthers in week eighteen.
Geno Smith (31% rostered) versus Denver
The Seahawks have a new-look offense with Huskies’ OC Ryan Grubb calling the shots under new head coach Mike Macdonald. This offense put quarterback Michael Penix, and wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan into positions to get drafted within the top 100 picks in the 2024 draft. They led the league in passing (358 yards per game), third in passing touchdowns (31), and fourth in passing plays of 30+ yards (37). There are big things on tap for the Seahawks’ offense in 2024, and they get a doozy of a first matchup.
The Broncos are in line to be one of if not the worst, team in the NFL this season. They added some depth players along the line, but none of them are real difference-makers, so I don’t expect huge improvements on the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate and seventh-highest yards per pass attempt rate from 2023.
Derek Carr (10% rostered) versus Carolina
I don’t believe in Derek Carr this season, mostly because I don’t believe in his offensive line. But, that shouldn’t be a problem in Carolina, who last season failed to garner any pressure at all whatsoever. They ranked last in the league in quarterback pressure rate, notching pressure on 29.8% of dropbacks, and generating a sack on 5.2% of sacks (second-worst in the league). They were truly awful at getting to the quarterback, which will give Carr plenty of time to pass on Sunday.
Last season, Carr averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt away from pressure, just 0.1 yards per attempt below #10 QB, Josh Allen. Without pressure, he also averaged the second-highest completion percentage and finished the season with 20 of his 25 touchdowns away from pressure.
Wide Receivers
Adonai Mitchell (28% rostered) versus Houston
Mitchell was the second-round pick of the Colts in this draft and seems to be in line to replace Alec Pierce, who has not lived up to expectations in Indianapolis. They went out of their way to get him involved with the first-team offense in the preseason, priming him to take over as the #2 target behind Michael Pittman.
Most people like to point out that Josh Downs should run ahead of Mitchell in a fully operational Colts wide receiver corps. Unfortunately for them (and fortunately for Mitchell), Downs may not play in week one thanks to an ankle injury holding him out at the beginning of the season.
Ja’Lynn Polk (22% rostered) at Cincinnati
While the Patriots are unlikely to show up on the sleeper list very often in 2024, they don’t get to play the questionable Cincinnati passing defense every week, either. Cincy ranked first in yards per pass play allowed last season (7.1 yards per pass attempt) and allowed the sixth-highest time to throw in the league last season, meaning that consummate professional Jacoby Brissett will have plenty of time to pick apart the Bengals’ defense.
The Patriots’ offense isn’t going to be very powerful, and because of this, it is wide open. Polk is as good of a bet as any of the Patriots receivers to pop off this season; the pedigree is there (69/1,159/9 last season while playing second-fiddle to Rome Odunze), and Kendrick Bourne, the only receiver in the room certainly better than him, is still recovering from his ACL injury and will miss the first month or so of the season.
Demarcus Robinson (5% rostered) at Detroit
Demarcus Robinson finished 2023 on a tear; in his last five games, he averaged 7 targets, 4 catches, and 64 yards per game, while scoring four touchdowns in those five games. That comes out to a 71/1,085/14 season and a very potent third wide receiver for the Rams. Jordan Whittington received a ton of publicity this offseason as the sleeper du jour for the Rams, but he popped thanks to nobody else in the starting lineup being on the field.
Robinson will get Detroit this week. They worked to improve on their passing defense, drafting Terrion Arnold in round one, and trading for Carlton Davis. But, they have a long way to go to become adept at defending intermediate targets, where Robinson (12.3 aDOT last season) thrived. On those targets, the Lions allowed the seventh-highest yards per play last season and seventh-most targets last season.
Running Backs
Jaleel McLaughlin (33% rostered) at Seattle
There’s been a steady Jaleel McLaughlin drumbeat all offseason, as he is set to be the pass-catching back in Denver. The one contender to his throne—Samaje Perine—didn’t make it through roster cuts, and is now a Chief. While I could quote you a bunch of statistics about Seattle’s susceptibility to the running back pass, in reality, one statistic matters:
The Denver Broncos threw the ball to the running back more than anyone else last season (153 targets). They also lost Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick, leaving them extremely shallow at every other pass-catching spot.
Jaylen Wright (21% rostered) versus Jacksonville
While I don’t feel as though Jaylen Wright will have a big week one without something terrible happening to one or both of the injury-prone backs in front of him, I do firmly believe that he belongs on your roster. Cast aside the Antonio Gibsons and Jakobi Meyerses and other players who have top-36 upside at their position and live a little. Take a swing on a back who has double the opportunity for injuries ahead of him to burst into fantasy relevance. Go get Jaylen Wright; he’s the perfect back for this system, and he just needs one of Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane to get hurt ahead of him for him to be a massive FAAB spend in weekly waivers.
Bucky Irving (17% rostered) versus Washington
Unlike Wright, Irving doesn’t need anyone to get hurt ahead of him to take the job in Tampa Bay. Rachaad White just needs to continue to be a horribly inefficient runner. In 2023, he was last or near-last in every rushing efficiency metric. In steps rookie Bucky Irving, who is a fun and shifty pass catcher out of Oregon. If he gets an opportunity to shine immediately, he should take advantage. The Commanders were bottom-eight last season in rushing yards per attempt, stuff rate, rushing over expectation,
Jamaal Williams (4% rostered) versus Carolina
Last season, the Panthers led the NFL in expected points added per rush (EPA/Rush) on defense. This is a measure of how effective each run is in getting toward points. If this is your first time seeing that statistic, being the worst in the league at that is bad. The Panthers allowed the fourth-highest rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns in the league last season, and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs last season.
With Kendre Miller injured and one step away from getting punted into the nether realm, Jamaal Williams has a chance to partially return to the glory he saw in 2022, before joining the Saints. In his last year with the Lions, Williams had 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns. I’m not saying he will get that far (not with Alvin Kamara in town), but he has more upside than we would otherwise expect.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill (49% rostered) versus Carolina
Love him or hate him, Taysom Hill is set to have a big role for the Saints. Hill was second in tight end touchdowns and tenth in tight end yardage last season. We saw how his usage might look in the preseason as Klint Kubiak had him all over the field as a receiver, a full back, a running back, and a tight end. This continued silly but effective usage will continue to pay dividends for fantasy football managers. While the Saints are likely to be a disjointed mess this season, the Panthers are, as well. Bad plus bad equals… good?
Hunter Henry (27% rostered) at Cincinnati
The Bengals achieved quite the feat last season: turning every tight end that played against them into 2023 Travis Kelce. Kelce finished with 93 receptions for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns in sixteen games. The Bengals allowed 107 receptions for 1,080 yards, and 6 touchdowns last season. With the disorganized offensive hierarchy in New England, it is unclear just exactly how much Hunter Henry will get useful targets, but the Bengals will allow him to take advantage of the targets he does get.
Ben Sinnott (9% rostered) at Tampa Bay
The consensus #2 tight end in the 2024 NFL Draft Class in the Football Absurdity/THFantaC family, Ben Sinnott is a beast of a player who should hit the ground running. He has the same setup as Sam LaPorta last season, at least on a superficial level: a locked-in WR1, a mixed-use RB tandem backfield, and nobody else to challenge him for targets. While old man Ertz is there, the Commanders would be smart to get Sinnott involved sooner rather than later.
If you liked the Cincy matchup for Henry, then you’ll love the Tampa Bay matchup: they allowed 103 receptions for 1,084 yards and 7 touchdowns to tight ends last season.
