We already dove into the first half of the receiver tiers, now let’s look at the rest of the guys worth drafting!
Tier Seven: Grizzled Vets
- DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee (WR44, Pick 92)
- Stefon Diggs, Houston (WR22, Pick 38)
- Terry McLaurin, Washington (WR32, Pick 62)
- Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (WR35, Pick 71)
- Tee Higgins, Cincinnati (WR28, Pick 55)
This group of veterans offers some good upside, but they also provide some advanced ages, relatively, compared to their brethren (I say this as someone who turns 39 in six months). They all still have it, though their names probably get them further than their recent production.
DeAndre Hopkins is easily my favorite wide receiver in this group. All four of these guys have question marks, but Hopkins’ uncertainties scare me the least out of all of these guys. While Diggs finished last season higher, he precipitously fell off a cliff at the end of last year and is now switching teams. Hopkins finished ahead of McLaurin and Godwin in points per game.
We saw that Prime Nuk still exists, he needs volume to get there. In the 12 games where Nuk had more than 5 targets, he finished with an average of 5 catches, 72 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. I’ll take that any day of the week (but usually on Sundays).
Diggs struggled down the stretch last season, failing to notch a single 100-yard game after week six, and averaging 5 catches for 51 yards after that point. A lot of points would slam dunk that guaranteed ten points into their lineup every week, but switching to a more target-rich environment in Houston as well as aging less-than-gracefully make me concerned about Diggs.
Terry McLaurin is a lesson in not counting your chickens before they hatch. Dynasty managers named him the next big thing going into his rookie year, and has finished as WR29, WR20, WR29, WR22, and WR34 in his five seasons in the league. With Jayden Daniels and a revamped Kliff Kingsbury offense in Washington, many hope Scary Terry will turn in a top-15 season before he turns 30 (which will be at the beginning of the 2025 season… he’s older than you think). I’m not so bullish.
Chris Godwin is an unsexy production. After starting slow, he finished WR36 or better in ten of fourteen games. He’s merely a depth piece, though a solid WR3 in a pinch. I’m not super bullish on him this season due to Baker Mayfield’s possible regression negatively affecting him more than Mike Evans, but touchdown regression (only 3 scores last year) could even that out.
Tee Higgins is in a weird position because he’s seemingly been forgotten by the entire fantasy football community, and despite this, he still enjoys a relatively robust average draft position, at WR28. It makes sense, he had an incredibly disjointed 2023 season, missing the middle of the season with an injury, finishing outside the top 70 at wide receiver 42% of the time, and finishing inside the top ten 33% of the time. It’s easier to not talk about Higgins and just quietly draft him as your WR3, instead. Stay under the radar, fantasy football writers.
Tier Eight: Depth Chart Darlings
- Christian Kirk, Jacksonville (WR30, Pick 60)
- Tank Dell, Houston (WR26, Pick 52)
- Keon Coleman, Buffalo (WR45, Pick 96)
These three guys are sitting in uncertain depth charts, though Christian Kirk arguably belongs in the tier above. However, there’s a world where Evan Engram has more targets than Christian Kirk. That, with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. (The BTJ Killer, it’s a real thing, look it up) entering the fray makes me a bit wary about his target volume.
Tank Dell could be the WR1 on the Texans. It’s entirely possible; he averaged 81.5 yards per game on just under 5 catches per game in his non-injury games. Unfortunately, he’s also 165 pounds and left two of his 11 career games with an injury. The Texans could preserve him, but that might make him the WR3! The depth chart, not his talent, is the real issue here.
Keon Coleman is the best wide receiver on the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately, the rookie might have to squeeze his way past Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and, weirdly… Mack Hollins(?)… to start the season. That depresses his value a bit as he can’t just slam his fist down on the table and declare himself the WR1. Still, I want to get him in every draft that I can; he’s going to be good, folks.
Tier Nine: The Last WR3s
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle (WR41, Pick 88)
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh (WR29, Pick 56)
If you haven’t gotten a third wide receiver by now, it’s time to panic, especially in a three-receiver league. But, these two guys represent your last shots at getting a WR3 for your team. I fear George Pickens because the Steelers look as though Arthur Smith will be importing his, frankly, crazy rotations from his time in Atlanta.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s career did not get off to a good start, but a lot of that had to do with Shane Waldron’s very weird usage. JSN played in the slot 64% of the time and was exceptionally bad in that role. His average depth of target was the same (5.8 yards in the slot versus 6.1 out wide). But, his reception efficiency was terrible in the slot. He had a +10.4% catch rate over expected out wide, and a -13.7% catch rate over (under?) expected in the slot. That’s bad, folks. If Ben Grubb puts him in a better spot to succeed (read: out wide), he should have a much more fruitful 2024 campaign.
Tier Ten: Upside Bench Receivers
- Mike Williams, N.Y. Jets (WR56, Pick 131)
- Jayden Reed, Green Bay (WR36, Pick 74)
- Christian Watson, Green Bay (WR40, Pick 87)
- Xavier Worthy, Kansas City (WR38, Pick 82)
- Calvin Ridley, Tennessee (WR34, Pick 68)
- Diontae Johnson, Carolina (WR37, Pick 79)
You don’t want to lean on any of these guys as starting receivers for you, as they all have massive question marks. Despite that, they all belong on rosters, as they have massive upside potential.
First, let’s start with Mike Williams, or Mike “1000 yards and ten touchdowns” Williams, as some astute analysts call him (I’m “astute analysts”). But, he’s coming off of an ACL tear, and his quarterback is coming off of an Achilles tear. So, injuries could be his downfall. Still, he is a top-20 receiver when healthy, and he’s free in drafts.
One of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson will finish the season as a top-24 receiver. Unfortunately, it all depends on Christian Watson’s hamstrings staying intact. That’s easier said than done, in most games. He played in just nine games last season, and never really got on the same page as Jordan Love. But, in the last eight games of 2022, he played on a 66-catch, 1,111 yards, 15 touchdown pace. With that in mind, we can’t ignore Reed’s productivity down the stretch last season after the Packers focused on him. From week 14 through the end of the season, he averaged 6 catches for 70 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game, or a 102-catch, 1,190 yards, 13 touchdown pace.
Xavier Worthy is a great and fast young receiver. But, we still aren’t quite sure what the Chiefs’ passing game will look like outside of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Despite its prolific nature, this offense has been so narrow in the past that it’s been impossible to trust more than one receiver at a time, and at this point, that’s Rashee Rice.
I don’t trust Calvin Ridley; I’m sorry. I see that he is a talented player, but he’s struggled to put it all together. Pair that with the Titans and their passing game full of decentish weapons, and I struggle to see a world where Ridley gets enough consistent targets to be a boon for fantasy football managers.
Copy and paste that last paragraph with Calvin Ridley, delete a couple of passing game weapons, and slightly upgrade the quarterback, and you have Diontae Johnson. Johnson gets a slight drop-down from Calvin Ridley because Ridley has far more upside if everything comes together.
Tier Eleven: Shaky Situations
- Courtland Sutton, Denver (WR47, Pick 104)
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota (WR42, Pick 89)
- Ladd McConkey, L.A. Chargers (WR43, Pick 91)
- Zay Flowers, Baltimore (WR27, Pick 53)
- Adam Thielen, Carolina (WR64, Pick 150)
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle (WR53, Pick 122)
All of these players are guaranteed volume, but their situations are incredibly shaky. Courtland Sutton and Jordan Addison have Bo Nix and Sam Darnold to worry about. Ladd McConkey has the Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman Run Game to contend with. Zay Flowers and Adam Thielen have rough passing games to worry about, and Tyler Lockett is possibly dropping down to WR3 in Seattle.
Tier Twelve: Upside Plays
- Jameson Williams, Detroit (WR46, Pick 103)
- Marquise Brown, Kansas City (WR49, Pick 106)
- Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans (WR58, Pick 134)
- Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis (WR62, Pick 146)
- Curtis Samuel, Buffalo (WR50, Pick 114)
It’s do-or-die for Jameson Williams, who was an incredible speedster in college. Unfortunately, he’s been lackluster in the NFL thanks to injuries and gambling scandals. With his 1.4 receptions for 21.9 yards per game, there isn’t much to hang your hat on other than pedigree.
Hollywood Brown is a good player but struggles with staying healthy. He is in the best offense he’s ever enjoyed, but we have to worry about the aforementioned Chiefs’ passing game attack focus, as well as the fact that he’s already injured and likely to miss a part of the beginning of the season… already. Sheesh.
Rashid Shaheed is all projection, but the Saints (in theory) have to throw the ball somewhere. Much like Jameson Williams, this is a bet on athleticism and upside; he had only 75 targets last season but averaged the tenth-highest average depth of target and the fifteenth-highest yards per reception.
Adonai Mitchell is a deep threat 2024 second-round pick for the Colts. Given that Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson haven’t played together yet, we still aren’t sure how the Colts will look other than giving Michael Pittman a lot of targets. An early-season injury to Josh Downs could just give him the chance he needs to break into this rotation.
Curtis Samuel is my favorite player of the last three tiers, especially since he made his way back from the wilderness to a Joe Brady offense. The last time Brady and Samuel were together, Samuel finished as WR23. Unfortunately, he missed a massive chunk of camp with turf toe, which is the same thing that cost Najee Harris a ton of his usefulness last year. It makes me worry a ton.
