I’ve already put down thousands of words about my quarterbacks, and running backs ranks (part two here). Now, I turn my attention to wide receivers. Below is part one of my wide receiver ranks, broken up into tiers for ease of use. Remember, kids: tiers are there to take advantage of talent drop-offs, so you want to try to draft one of the last players available in a tier if you can (or if you have a gut feeling). Let’s dive into part one, with part two coming soon!
Tier One: The Elitest of the Elite
- Tyreek Hill, Miami (WR2, Pick 3)
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas (WR1, Pick 2)
If you’re taking one of these guys, then you’re deciding to pass up on Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Breece Hall. In return, they’ll give you wide receivers who will lead the league in one of two categories: yards, or receptions. Hill was on a 2000-yard pace last season before an injury in week 14 slowed him for the rest of the season. He still led the league in receiving yards (1,799), despite the injury.
Lamb led the league in receptions, with 135. If you’re in a PPR league, then Lamb will likely finish higher than Hill. Unfortunately, he has to be on the field for that to happen, and Jerry Jones is being incredibly stupid about this. Jones is continuously saying that the Cowboys don’t need their best offensive weapon. Bold strategy, you old coot. I think Lamb plays, but missing all the offseason activities gives me enough pause to put him at WR2.
Tier Two: First-Rounders
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit (WR5, Pick 8)
- Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati (WR3, Pick 4)
- Justin Jefferson, Minnesota (WR4, Pick 6)
- Garrett Wilson, N.Y. Jets (WR7, Pick 10)
These receivers should all be off the board at the turn, at worst. They’re bonkers good, and in a position to usurp one of Hill or Lamb, should things go their way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished last season with 119 receptions and 1,515 receiving yards, two numbers that have increased in each of his three seasons in the league. He has a mind-meld with Jared Goff and is one of the best short-area receivers in the NFL. You can’t go wrong with him.
Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are both in the conversation for the best all-around wide receiver in the league, and both are going to Canton if they keep this up. Chase and the Bengals are in their Last Dance Era with Tee Higgins, and he’s currently holding out for a giant contract. I have no doubts that he will make it onto the field in week one, but if he doesn’t, then good news: you can get Amon-Ra St. Brown where you would normally draft Chase, instead.
Justin Jefferson, with a competent quarterback, could be WR1 overall. Unfortunately, the Vikings have those in short supply after J.J. McCarthy underwent season-ending knee surgery and the Minneapolis Norsemen turned to Sam Darnold, instead. While GEQBUS has his fans, I am not super bullish on Jefferson leaping back up into tier one with him under center.
Garrett Wilson has an outside shot at being the first wide receiver with 200 targets in NFL history. I’m not saying that it will happen, but I am saying that the Jets have one of the best QBs ever (who is recovering from an Achilles tear, but whose brain is still… okay, so maybe his brain isn’t so great anymore, either). But, the Jets have Garrett Wilson in the passing game and an injured Mike Williams as their second target. What I’m saying is that Wilson has undoubted volume, so if that’s what you’re looking for, you can scoop him up, here.
Tier Three: Round Two Studs
- A.J. Brown, Philadelphia (WR6, Pick 9)
- Marvin Harrison, Arizona (WR9, Pick 15)
- Puka Nacua, L.A. Rams (WR8, Pick 11)
- Drake London, Atlanta (WR11, Pick 18)
This is a great tier to dive into, no matter who your first-round pick ended up being. These guys are all going to be rock-solid receivers for you, but some questions surround them that keep them from being in the top tier.
A.J. Brown, in a different offense, is a tier higher. He arguably belongs with the Garrett Wilson types, except for the fact that the Eagles do not run a high-volume passing offense. While Kellen Moore is in town, likely, they pass more, but Philadelphia passed at the sixth-lowest rate last season. That low volume keeps him from vaulting up to the tier-two guys, but I still love him for 2024 leagues.
There’s one question with Puka Nacua: can he keep it up? I believe he can, even with Cooper Kupp’s return. There’s a lot of ballyhoo about the Rams getting Colby Parkinson(?!) to fill in for Tyler Higbee at tight end. But, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combining for a 55%-60% target share is a much smarter use of Matthew Stafford’s few remaining years, than trying to force targets to Colby Parkinson.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the next great wide receiver prospect in a long line of wide receiver prospects to come out of (The) Ohio State. I am likely not drafting him here, but this is where the projections put him. Unfortunately, I am still antsy to give him his flowers without seeing him do it first. He’s a top-flight receiver, but we all agree there… which is pushing up his ADP. I’m okay with being wrong on MHJ.
Drake London is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, but he’s yet to have a fantasy football season that’s worth writing home about. Through two years, he has 1,771 yards and 6 touchdowns, in 33 games. It’s easy to throw this at the feet of guys like Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder (and Arthur Smith). With Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson in tow, Drake London bag holders are hoping for better things ahead.
Tier Four: Let’s Open This Pit Up
- Mike Evans, Tampa Bay (WR15, Pick 26)
- Cooper Kupp, L.A. Rams (W17, Pick 31)
- Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco (WR16, Pick 28)
- Nico Collins, Houston (WR13, Pick 23)
- Davante Adams, Las Vegas (WR10, Pick 16)
- Rashee Rice, Kansas City (WR33, Pick 66)
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco (WR14, Pick 25)
- Rome Odunze, Chicago (WR39, Pick 84)
This tier is huge, and if you don’t have a receiver before getting into this tier, then you better get (at least) one of these guys before the pool dries up.
Mike Evans has an easy 1,000-yard season, every single year. He’s done it literally every year, and he’s one of six wide receivers in NFL history with 5+ seasons of 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown campaigns under his belt. Many are predicting his downfall because [enter reasons here, I guess]. He didn’t slow down last season, but getting 9 months older is apparently enough to see him fall off of a cliff. I don’t get it.
Speaking of falling off a cliff for no reason, people really don’t like Cooper Kupp. Kupp is still Kupp, but he just has target competition. From the moment he returned until the fantasy playoffs ended, he had a higher target per route run than Garrett Wilson and was 0.01 below D.J. Moore, Chris Olave, and Rashee Rice. He also sat above Davante Adams in yards per route run. He’s a screaming value.
Brandon Aiyuk was WR13 last year for the 49ers as their WR1 and will be with the 49ers again this season. I will not be taking questions on this matter.
As for Nico Collins, things have changed for him in Houston. I still firmly believe that he is the WR1 there, but the target volume that saw him finish as WR7 in fantasy points per game last season will be somewhat condensed. He was without Tank Dell for seven games, and the Texans added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to catch passes. While this talent-rich environment will grow the target pie, less of it will go to Collins, but not enough to scare me off.
Davante Adams is here as a lifetime achievement award. Gardner Minshew under center gives me hope that he won’t be a complete disaster for fantasy football this season (Minshew supported Michael Pittman). But, Adams and the Raiders have been a stylistic mismatch since Vegas moved on from Derek Carr. And by “stylistic mismatch” I mean “they refuse to get a quarterback who can utilize a top-five receiver in the league.” This is no knock on Adams, and if he goes most other places, he vaults up to the top of tier three or even the bottom of tier two.
Rashee Rice will not be suspended this season (book it). He played over 60% of snaps for the first time in week eight last season, and from then on out, he averaged 6 catches for 70 yards a game, scoring 4 touchdowns in the last nine games. He’s as rock solid as they’ll come in the WR2 game unless you’re playing scared.
Deebo Samuel’s main value is touchdowns, with a splash of upside in case of a Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, or Brandon Aiyuk injury. He scored 12 touchdowns last season in just 97 touches, which put him in sole possession of fourth place at wide receiver in that particular statistic.
Rome Odunze’s top-twenty might be bold, but I am not advocating that you take him at that spot. I just firmly believe that the Bears have big plans for their receiver in year one, and those plans include being on the receiving end of lots of big Caleb Williams touchdowns. I don’t fear Keenan Allen, as he is likely depth that gets sacrificed at the altar of the Caleb2Rome connection as the season progresses.
Tier Five: Fantasy WR2s With Upside
- Michael Pittman, Indianapolis (WR19, Pick 33)
- J. Moore, Chicago (WR20, Pick 35)
- DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia (WR23, Pick 40)
There isn’t much to say here with these players. These three are all going to be rock-solid WR2s for you, and are great to have as you dive into more speculative upside plays further down. Smith is my favorite here as he has a top-5 upside if anything happens to A.J. Brown. The other two are hemmed into high-floor, low-ceiling WR2s, no matter what happens around them.
Tier Six: WR2 with WR1 Upside
- Malik Nabers, N.Y. Giants (WR24, Pick 42)
- Jaylen Waddle, Miami (WR18, Pick 32)
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle (WR24, Pick 37)
- Chris Olave, New Orleans (WR12, Pick 19)
- Amari Cooper, Cleveland (WR25, Pick 49)
We round out part one with the group of receivers who should be your second or third receiver. If one of these guys ends up as your WR1, then maybe fantasy baseball might be better for you. This group all has top-fifteen upside, but you don’t want to dive into that group without a solid WR1 to buttress against a potential failure.
Nabers is the most talented player on this (very talented) list, and he has the easiest path to 150 targets out of everybody in this group. Unfortunately, his quarterback is Daniel Jones. We’ve seen in the preseason that Brian Daboll and the Giants’ offense wants to push the ball downfield to Nabers, but the man doing the passing could be Nabers’ downside. Still, he’s my favorite to snag in this group.
Jaylen Waddle will be second fiddle to Tyreek Hill in the Miami passing game, but the Miami passing game has only two fiddles (with all respect to Jonnu Smith and River Cracraft). Waddle missed three games last season, but his 131 target pace in the 12 games before his injury would have been top-20 at the position.
D.K. Metcalf is likely to be a good riser at the position this season thanks to Ryan Grubb and the Washington Huskies offense that Seattle imported from about 5 miles up the road. My only issue here is the Geno Smith of it all. We saw him take a huge step back in 2023, dropping his completion percentage, TD rate, yards per attempt, QBR, and quarterback rating. But, if everything works out, this is way too low for Metcalf, who could be in the Drake London range next season.
Chris Olave isn’t going to be here, but if he is here, I’ll begrudgingly take him. The Saints are setup to have the worst offensive line in the league, and Derek Carr is going to be looking for desperation release valve plays because of it. That makes me antsy for Olave’s potential. The offense is going to be bad, and bad in a way that hurts Olave’s prospects.
Amari Cooper is a metronome; he is the same player whether or not Deshaun Watson is on the field. He’s the only Brown that you can say that about. In 12 games with Watson while a member of the Browns, Cooper averages 7 targets, 4 catches, and 72.5 yards per game. In 20 games without Watson, he averages 8.7 targets, 5 catches, and 77 yards per game. He’s essentially the same player no matter who is throwing him the ball, so you can get some stability here from your WR2 slot if you take a couple of upside swings ahead of him.
