We’ve already looked at the top-flight running backs, as I outlined my top four tiers on Sunday. Let’s look at the rest of the position, and who can help you inside my top 50(ish) running backs for the 2024 fantasy football season.
Tier 5: Rock-Solid RB2s(?)
- Kenneth Walker III, Seattle (RB17, Pick 53)
- James Conner, Arizona (RB20, Pick 65)
- Nick Chubb, Cleveland (RB35, Pick 106)
- Joe Mixon, Houston (RB15, Pick 47)
- Aaron Jones, Minnesota (RB18, Pick 63)
These guys are all—at least for now—the #1 backs in their room, when healthy. But, they all carry serious question marks. Walker carries the fewest, but Zach Charbonnet can’t be that bad, can he? If he isn’t, then KW3 is set for a monstrous season this year in standard leagues. Hopefully, Ben Grubb gets him some more targets, but that remains to be seen.
James Conner, Nick Chubb, and Joe Mixon are a trio of various injury concerns but are going to dominate touches when healthy. Conner has missed four games each of the last two seasons, but he averaged 17.5 touches per game in the other games. Nick Chubb is an absolute bellcow (17.7 touches per game over his career) but is recovering from his knee exploding last offseason. Mixon is also a bell cow (19.1 touches per game) but is currently dealing with a quad strain that is keeping him out of practice (and he’s switching teams).
Aaron Jones isn’t currently dealing with an injury, but he’s coming over to Minnesota from Green Bay, where he was a fantasy stud. Unfortunately, Kevin O’Connell doesn’t have a good track record of developing running backs, with Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Alexander Mattison, and Dalvin Cook all falling short of expectations under O’Connell.
Tier 6: Quality Backs in Shared Backfields
- David Montgomery, Detroit (RB19, Pick 64)
- Raheem Mostert, Miami (RB25, Pick 80)
- Jonathon Brooks, Carolina (RB28, Pick 90)
- Tony Pollard, Tennessee (RB27, Pick 86)
All of these guys share a backfield with another player to the point that they can justifiably be called the 1a (or even the 1b). Montgomery has Jahmyr Gibbs, Mostert has De’Von Achane, and Jonathon Brooks has Chuba Hubbard (and is recovering from a knee injury). Tony Pollard will split touches with the incumbent in Tennessee, Tyjae Spears.
That having been said, all of these backs have enough talent and a path to touchdowns, and that would make me happy to have them on my roster. Montgomery averaged 15 touches for 75 yards (and 0.8 touchdowns) per game after he missed weeks seven and eight, which allowed Gibbs to break out. Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, and is a budget way to get a piece of that Lions offense.
Raheem Mostert had 21 touchdowns last season, and many think that De’Von Achane will somehow shunt him off to the bench, despite him being the clear goal line back, and despite the Dolphins going out to re-sign him. Early pre-season returns have Mostert out-snapping Achane with the first team (9-2), as well.
I love Brooks at value, but he needs to go later than the rest as the rookie is likely to start the season on the PUP, and it’s a toss-up if we will see Halloween decorations or Jonathon Brooks first.
Tony Pollard is my favorite on this list, by default. He and Tyjae Spears are essentially the same guys, as they have roughly the same BMI, both handled 67-70 targets last season, both evaded 2-3 tackles per game, and both were about league-average carrying the football. They’re the same guy! I have Pollard higher because I think he gets more touchdowns, but you can get Tyjae Spears a whole round later! Just use someone drafting Pollard as your sign to draft Tyjae. Also, I am going to skip Tyjae in this tier!
Tier 7: Mixed-Use Backs with Questions
- Devin Singletary, N.Y. Giants (RB34, Pick 102)
- Tyjae Spears, Tennessee (RB33, Pick 99)
- Javonte Williams, Denver (RB31, Pick 97)
Devin Singletary and Javonte Williams could both be staring 275 touches right in the face. Tyjae Spears, I already discussed above!
Singletary and Williams are in interesting situations for two different reasons. Devin Singletary is the only game in town at running back, with the other backs out there being Eric Gray and WR-turned-RB Tyrone Tracy. Singletary handled a career-high 246 touches last season as he took over for Dameon Pierce, who came down with a case of “Jeff was right about him being bad at football.” Starting in week 10, Singletary played on a 331-touch, 1500-yard pace, making him more than capable of handling the load in New York.
Javonte has a different path to beaucoup touches: the Broncos love giving touches to the running back. They ranked seventh in running back touches last season (with 484), behind teams with split backfields or studs (and the Browns, for some reason): Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Miami, and San Francisco. The Broncos are going with Bo Nix at quarterback, which means that they will once again rely on the running backs to carry the load. While I’m a huge Audric Estimé believer, and folks out there think Jaleel McLaughlin will make some noise, Javonte will likely lead the way in touches.
Tier 8: These Guys Go Here, I Guess?
- Gus Edwards, L.A. Chargers (RB37, Pick 114)
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh (RB24, Pick 77)
- D’Andre Swift, Chicago (RB23, Pick 76)
Gus Edwards is in Los Angeles, and the Chargers are set to have a strong run game. They are also set to have a three-way backfield and are likely to grind the game out, which might cap his upside. He’s not a thrilling pick, for me.
Najee Harris got a bump up into this tier, and Jaylen Warren got a bump down. Harris is going to start the season with the Steelers’ backfield to himself, as Warren is likely to start the season inactive with a hamstring injury. He’s fine and better than you thought last year, posting 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns on the league’s tenth-highest breakaway run rate.
As for Swift, it’s looking as though he has a grip on the Chicago backfield. They have a ton of passing weapons, and Caleb is likely to steal a rushing touchdown or two, but he has an easy 1100 and 7 in him, with 30 or so catches.
Tier 9: The Forgotten Men
- Rachaad White, Tampa Bay (RB14, Pick 44)
- Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh (RB26, Pick 82)
I don’t like taking either of these players at their ADP if I’m being honest. I loved getting Jaylen Warren before he suffered a hamstring injury, but those make me leery, and ADP hasn’t compensated for his injury.
Rachaad White is a player I firmly believe will lose his job during the season. He isn’t anything special, ranking 57th in true yards per carry, 33rd in yards per touch, 23rd in juke rate, and 47th in breakaway run rate, according to PlayerProfiler. Hop on over to NFL Pro, and he ranks 48th of 48 running backs in rushing yards over expectation, while ranking 31st (of 48) in yards after contact per attempt, and 47th out of 48 in rushing success rate.
He’s bad, folks.
Tier 10: Major Question Marks
- Zamir White, Las Vegas (RB22, Pick 73)
- Chase Brown, Cincinnati (RB36, Pick 108)
- Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas (RB38, Pick 115)
- Brian Robinson, Washington (RB32, Pick 98)
- Jaylen Wright, Miami (RB49, Pick 153)
This group is mostly a mixed bag of guys who have a bit more solid footing than the guys below them, but who I still don’t want. Arguably, Zamir White belongs higher on this list, but this is just me reminding myself that I don’t want him.
Chase Brown is a PPR-only play, as the Bengals love to give targets to the running back, and Zack Moss has ceded targets to other backs everywhere he’s gone (100 targets in four seasons), opening the door for Brown to get some run as a passing-downs guy.
Zeke Elliott is what he is: not very good any more thanks to Father Time, playing on a powerful offense, and likely to fall into 13 or 14 touchdowns because the Cowboys will give him a ton of carries inside the five.
Brian Robinson, like Zamir White, arguably belongs higher, but I cannot get his role on this team mirroring 2023 Gus Edwards out of my head: a good number of carries, a decent number of touchdowns, but no catches, no long runs, and other players grabbing fistfuls of production out of his quivering hide (Jayden Daniels and Austin Ekeler).
Jaylen Wright is the player to get in this tier, as, ideally, you’re taking upside swings. He’s a beast, and a speed demon, and playing two different running backs who are liable to end up on the shelf this season.
Tier 11: Catching a Falling Knife (mostly)
- Zack Moss, Cincinnati (RB29, Pick 93)
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay (RB56, Pick 173)
- Austin Ekeler, Washington (RB30, Pick 96)
- Jerome Ford, Cleveland (RB40, Pick 117)
As the saying goes, “Don’t try to catch a falling knife.” Why? Well, go drop a knife and try to catch it, stupid. Tell me how that goes. That is after you get back from getting stitches and a tetanus shot. Moss has never been Him, Ekeler is on the downswing of his career, and Jerome Ford has a ticking clock named Nick Chubb waiting to make his triumphant return to a 2-3 Browns team.
Bucky Irving is the only player I want and arguably belongs in the tier below. But I wanted to stress that I like him a lot more than the upside guys below. Remember how I outlined how little I wanted to have Rachaad White on my team? Bucky Irving is one of the reasons why.
Tier 12: Upside RB2s
- Antonio Gibson, New England (RB51, Pick 155)
- Ray Davis, Buffalo (RB55, Pick 170)
- Ty Chandler, Minnesota (RB46, Pick 141)
This group is… exceptionally awkward. They’re not as good as the group above, but they’re not as bad as the group below. All three of these backs rely on a back in front of them getting hurt (Rhamondre Stevenson, James Cook, and Aaron Jones, respectively). They are just stash candidates to stop you from spending a third of your FAAB in week 3. Save that FAAB, you’ll never know when the next Emari Demarcado could pop up!
Tier 13: Mix-Ins That Need to Prove Themselves
- Audric Estime, Denver (RB62, Pick 195)
- Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB45, Pick 139)
- Blake Corum, L.A. Rams (RB41, Pick 118)
- Rico Dowdle, Dallas (RB44, Pick 138)
- Zach Charbonnet, Seattle (RB42, Pick 127)
- Khalil Herbert, Chicago (RB54, Pick 169)
- K. Dobbins, L.A. Chargers (RB43, Pick 137)
- Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver (RB50, Pick 154)
Let’s speed round this: Estime needs a Javonte Williams injury to be relevant, but he could kick the door down if given the opportunity. Chuba Hubbard will have to stave off Jonathon Brooks once he returns from injury. Blake Corum is going to be the small side of a platoon but will get opportunities to prove himself. Rico Dowdle is here by default because you cannot honestly expect me to believe in Zeke Elliott that much. Zach Charbonnet is here because he’s a handcuff, even though he was bad in that role last season; maybe he got better? Khalil Herbert over Roschon Johnson, but neither will matter unless D’Andre Swift gets hurt. J.K. Dobbins in this tier is a hedge in case he becomes literally the first back to come back from an Achilles tear the next year without looking like garbage. Jaleel McLaughlin could get 60 targets, but 15 carries. There we go, speed round over.
I hope these running backs helped you sort out your drafting! Stay tuned, as the wide receivers are due up next!
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nick_Chubb_(42477091350).jpg, cropped under CC BY-SA 4.0]
