We’ve already run through the quarterback tiers in my rankings, and now it’s time to make our way down the line to the running back tiers. There are a lot more running backs to talk about, and there are a lot of ecological niches that different backs fill. I have 13 different tiers among backs that are roughly top-50 for me. If a player is outside of the top 50, you probably don’t have to draft them in 10-team or 12-team leagues, unless you are looking at handcuffs (Tyler Allgeier, Braelon Allen, Trey Benson, MarShawn Lloyd, I’m looking at you)!
Below are my ranks, as of today, broken up into tiers, to help guide your draft. If there’s a player whose value I love more than the other guys, I will go ahead and highlight him, so you know the cream of the crop in each tier.
Tier 1A: Christian McCaffrey
- Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco (RB1, Pick 1)
Drafting Christian McCaffrey gives you the points of a 2QB league in a 1QB league. He scored 393.3 PPR points last season, which put him second in the league in fantasy points. Not at running back, overall. He outscored everyone in the whole NFL, except Josh Allen.
McCaffrey is dealing with a calf injury, but everyone has said that it isn’t a big deal and that if it were the regular season, he would play. He’s CMC, and the 49ers are smart. He doesn’t need a training camp or a preseason.
Tier 1B: The Other Elites
- Breece Hall, N.Y. Jets (RB2, Pick 5)
- Bijan Robinson, Atlanta (RB3, Pick 7)
If Christian McCaffrey is healthy this season, these are the only two backs that have a reasonable shot at dethroning him as the RB1. We’ve seen the heights that Hall could reach last season, as the Jets turned him loose at the end of the season, giving him at least 18 touches in four of his last five games; he finished each of those games with 126 or more yards. With Aaron Rodgers in tow, the Jets should be a functional offense, and Robinson should get almost all the touches in this backfield.
Robinson, however, is mostly projection. The fantasy football world screamed and cursed when the most recent studly prospect slipped into the clutches of the dastardly Arthur Smith. The Bad Man is gone, and we hope that Robinson can build on the few times he was given a chance to sign last season. The former first-round pick had over 18 touches 16 times last season, and he averaged 123 yards in those games.
Tier 2: Pass-catching Studs
- Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia (RB6, Pick 14)
- Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis (RB5, Pick 13)
- Travis Etienne, Jacksonville (RB10, Pick 22)
- Josh Jacobs, Green Bay (RB12, Pick 38)
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit (RB4, Pick 11)
Saquon Barkley is moving from the Giants and their dreadful offense to the Eagles, and their prolific offense. A lot of pundits fear that he will see a dip in touchdown production thanks to Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push. There’s no reason to fear this, as D’Andre Swift had 15 carries inside the five last season compared to just 8 for Saquon Barkley. I’m all-in on Saquon and value-aside, he’s my favorite back in this tier (judging by the rankings duh).
Taylor is going to get a ton of run this season, and it’s all vibes if we are being honest. We haven’t seen a fully healthy Jonathan Taylor and a fully healthy Anthony Richardson together, but they’re going to create the most potent Read Option duo this side of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. He’s an annual stud, and his offense is getting a big upgrade.
Travis Etienne, despite his size, is the goal-line back for the Jaguars, as well as the all-around best back on the roster by far. His six rushing touchdowns in goal-to-go situations ranked eighth in the league last season, and his 50 rushes of 15+ MPH (per Next Gen Stats) ranked fourth among all running backs. Throw in that he was top-five in targets, receptions, and yards last season, and you have very little to worry about from this rock-solid stud.
Josh Jacobs switched teams this season, and he went from one of the worst situations in the NFL (the Raiders) to one of the best (the Packers). Green Bay moved on from Aaron Jones after injuries derailed his 2023 season. But, they still heavily utilized him in the passing game when he was available. Jones had a 12% target share when playing (16th among running backs), and his 1.85 yards per route run ranked second. Jacobs is not even close to a step down from 2023 Jones, making him a great value at RB12 by ADP.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the second coming of Alvin Kamara, but he has some question marks. First, he has another hamstring injury, the same thing that cost him time in his rookie campaign. Second, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, and Amon-Ra St. Brown aren’t going anywhere. Despite this, Gibbs is probably the second-to-last back you can draft that has RB1 overall upside (the other being De’Von Achane).
Tier 3: The Only Game in Town
- Alvin Kamara, New Orleans (RB16, Pick 49)
- James Cook, Buffalo (RB13, Pick 43)
A lot of the “new is always better” crowd has grown tired of Alvin Kamara. They whiffed on him last season, and they’re trying to find anything to justify whiffing on him again. His rushing efficiency went down last season, with a negative rushing yards over expectation (RYOE). Here’s the thing: in a PPR league, I cannot emphasize how little I care about his advanced rushing stats. He’s the only game in town at running back for a team that will be in desperate need of dump-offs from Derek Carr. This was his role last year, getting the second-most receptions and sixth-most yards at running back while missing four games due to suspension. Kamara will lead all running backs in receptions and is a dark horse to be the first RB to get 100 receptions since Austin Ekeler in 2022.
James Cook is a great running back, and his only competition for touches is rookie Ray Davis. While Davis will get his fair share, the Joe Brady Offense was very kind to James Cook last season. After Brady took over as offensive coordinator from Ken Dorsey, Cook averaged 19.6 touches and 104.3 yards per game. He tied with Bijan Robinson for RB10 in points per game in that timeframe. Good things are on the horizon for Cook in 2024.
Tier 4: Hard Runners with Question Marks
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore (RB8, Pick 20)
- De’Von Achane, Miami (RB9, Pick 12)
- Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City (RB11, Pick 25)
- Kyren Williams, L.A. Rams (RB7, Pick 17)
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England (RB21, Pick 68)
All of these guys have a solid chance to finish inside the top five, but I have serious questions about their ability to do so given the circumstances around them.
Many are penciling Derrick Henry in for 20 touchdowns this season. That feels a lot like projecting “wouldn’t it be cool” onto Henry because people are desperate to get their studs back. Unfortunately, the Ravens lost multiple starters along the line, and aren’t going to be the same rushing attack as they were in the past. Folks are projecting additional touchdowns onto Gus Edwards’ 13 from last season, but Edwards already led the NFL in goal-to-go carries. With Lamar Jackson under center, I doubt they give Henry more carries inside the five than “literally leading the league.” He’s still an RB1, but his ceiling isn’t as high as some folks hope.
Speaking of projecting “wouldn’t it be cool” onto a player, De’Von Achane. He’s still an RB1 for me, but folks seriously need to pump the brakes. Achane kicked the door down on the league by rushing for 455 yards in three games (weeks 3 through 5). Injuries cost him all but one carry in the next six games. When he returned, the Dolphins were monitoring his carries; Achane had 12 or fewer touches in four of his last six games. Miami isn’t ready to turn it all over to Achane, as evidenced by them bringing back Raheem “20 touchdowns” Mostert and drafting Jaylen Wright with their third pick (round four) in the 2024 NFL Draft. Still, he can snap the defense over his knee on any given touch, making him my favorite in this tier.
Isiah Pacheco run like he bite people, and has a chance to be a top-five back in the league this year, should the Chiefs finally let him catch passes. They let Jerick McKinnon spell Pacheco in this role in the past, and the plan seemed to be to bring back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he is dealing with mental health struggles (and I cannot understate how much I wish him the best in this). There are depth backs like Deneric Prince and Carson Steele getting buzz in camp, which tells you how little they have behind Pacheco.
Unfortunately for those who want to buy into Kyren Williams, he does have someone behind him. Williams was a monster when he was on the football field last season, averaging a smidge under 23 touches and 112.5 yards per game. But, the Rams drafted a slightly younger Williams in Blake Corum, and that’s not coming from me, that’s coming from Literally the Head Coach, Sean McVay. They plan to spell Kyren Williams with Corum to keep Williams fresh and healthy headed into the 2024 playoffs. Wiliams, unfortunately, wasn’t anything to write home about on a per-touch basis, ranking 17th in yards created per touch, and 37th in yards per route run. He was fine, but he had a ton of volume. Now, he will get less volume, which makes him a second-round pick in my eyes.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a victim of his situation. He will play for one of the worst teams in the NFL this year and is unlikely to get a lot of touchdowns because of it. This is a hedge, as I believe that he will get back to 2022 Rhamondre (1,040 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns), but that touchdowns will once again bring down his final ranking. He finished as RB10 in 2022, but he was the only game in town. The Patriots now also have Antonio Gibson, who will steal some of those targets, limiting Rhamondre’s upside.
