Tier-based drafting is a great way to proceed through your fantasy football drafts. It eschews linear rankings, where the difference between QB5 and QB6 is not as much as between QB6 and QB7, for example. This allows you to group players into pools to draft out of. As these pools get smaller, the draft helps you make your decisions. In a sense, you let the draft come to you, and you attack player pools before they dry up, allowing you to soak up the value and grow big and strong, like a dinosaur sponge.
So, I will outline my ranks, broken up into tiers, to help guide your draft. If there’s a player whose value I love more than the other guys, I will go ahead and highlight him, so you
We start with the quarterbacks, and I am going 35 34 quarterbacks deep (rest in peace, J.J. McCarthy), though the last tier might as well be called “Dee Dee Mega Doodoo,” since they’re all mostly megadoodoo, and guys you likely ignore in 1QB leagues. In 2QB leagues, however, there is some value to extract from those tiers. Without further ado, let’s start with the guys that everyone wants in their drafts, the studs:
Tier One: Big Arms and Big Legs
- Josh Allen, Buffalo (QB1, Pick 29)
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia (QB2, Pick 35)
There isn’t much to say about these guys. They had 33 combined rushing touchdowns last season, which puts them head-and-shoulders above everyone else, especially in 4-points-per-passing touchdown leagues. They’re the best of the best and are solid mid-second-round picks in 1QB leagues.
However, given the position’s value later, and the players at other positions still available with both Allen and Hurts still on the board, I don’t often find myself dipping my toes into this water. Still, if you want quarterbacks that are weekly difference-makers and you don’t want to think about it, then Allen & Hurts are your guys. There’s no wrong pick between the two.
Tier Two: The Stud-Adjacent Runners
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (QB3, Pick 36)
- Kyler Murray, Arizona (QB8, Pick 71)
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (QB4, Pick 41)
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis (QB6, Pick 67)
Patrick Mahomes almost made himself a mini-tier but so much of that has to do with his reputation and his real-life skill set. Ultimately, Marquise Brown did Marquise Brown things (get hurt), so he made his way down to the top of tier two. Mahomes had zero rushing touchdowns last year, but his 389 rushing yards ranked sixth at the position. He had a down year by all Mahomesian standards (4,183 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 picks), but he still turned in a top-10 performance on a per-game basis. It feels like taking him is drafting the name, though.
Kyler Murray is my favorite player in this group because he will be fully healthy and with an incredible one-two punch with Marvin Harrison Jr. & Trey McBride to throw to. He will also have full use of his legs and is my favorite pick not only among quarterbacks but among all the players in the entire draft. The last time we saw a full season from a fully actualized Kyler Murray was 2020, when he finished with 819 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, 3,787 passing yards, and 24 passing touchdowns. He’s had struggles with injuries and weapons since then, but I am all in this season.
Richardson and Lamar have gotten a lot of publicity this offseason as guys who could be league winners. Richardson finished just two games last year and played in only four. But he still finished those games with seven total touchdowns and only one interception. My main fear with him is that he could not stay on the field.
Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP with good reason, but his second-best passing weapon is either Zay Flowers or his backup tight end. I struggle to think that the Ravens will be a high-flying offense this year.
Tier Three: Good, But No QB1 Overall Upside
- C.J. Stroud, Houston (QB6, Pick 57)
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville (QB16, Pick 121)
- Dak Prescott, Dallas (QB9, Pick 74)
These three players have upside, but not enough to finish inside the top-three or even the top one at the position. I do all of my ranks via projections, and I am very interested in the Jacksonville passing game this year. They replaced Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones with Brian Thomas Jr., a player in the draft that I loved as a deep threat, and Gabe Davis, who was inconsistent but useful to help boost Josh Allen in Buffalo. Add in a Christian Kirk and an Evan Engram (not to mention Travis Etienne), and Lawrence has a ton of weapons. I don’t think he finishes tops here above Stroud, but he comes at a much greater value.
As for Stroud, he’s #verygood, and is set up with one of the best sets of weapons in the league. But, he does not run. He had fewer than 200 rushing yards last year, and in this landscape, that won’t cut it.
Dak Prescott is good but Brandin Cooks is hurt, and CeeDee Lamb is holding out. Things could get messy in Dallas.
Tier Four: The Final Rock Solid Starters
- Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB10, Pick 78)
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati (QB7, Pick 69)
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco (QB11, Pick 94)
- Jayden Daniels, Washington (QB12, Pick 101)
- Jared Goff, Detroit (QB13, Pick 110)
If you’re in a ten-team league, you should already have a quarterback at this point. If you’re in a twelve-team league, this is the group you need to dive into if you don’t already have a quarterback. These are all great value options, but my favorite of the group is easily Jayden Daniels.
We aren’t sure if Jayden Daniels will be a good NFL football player. He hasn’t played a real snap of football in the league yet. But, I truly do not care. He had 2,000 rushing yards in his last two years and over 3,000 overall at college, and rushing yards are worth 2.5x the amount of passing yards. The other two quarterbacks in the FPS era to get drafted in the first two rounds with as many rushing yards as Jayden Daniels? Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
Tier Five: Your Last Chance
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (QB14, Pick 111)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago (QB15, Pick 112)
- Matthew Stafford, L.A. Rams (QB19, Pick 136)
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta (QB18, Pick 130)
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB22, Pick 152)
- Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers (QB17, Pick 128)
If you are in a one-quarterback league, this is your last chance to get a potential starter for your team. If you’re in a 2QB league, then this is a nice place to dive back in if you took a stud. Ideally, in 2QB leagues, you have three quarterbacks before this group is empty.
Tua and Caleb Williams create a mini-tier here, as they almost make it to the tier above, but Tua collapses in December annually, and the Bears of it all with Caleb Williams make them fall into this tier, as I just can’t quite classify them as “rock solid.”
Stafford is my favorite in this tier, though Kirk Cousins is not too far behind. Stafford has tons of weapons (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams & Blake Corum) and a high-flying Sean McVay offense. He has a real chance to finish as a top-ten quarterback this season.
Tier Six: The Last Upside Plays
- Aaron Rodgers, N.Y. Jets (QB20, Pick 140)
- Drake Maye, New England (QB32, Pick 214)
The cat’s out of the bag for Masshole Justin Herbert, as he had a rushing touchdown in his second preseason game and everyone started slobbering all over themselves. Maye is the last guy you should draft in a 1QB league. Past here there be Dragons.
Tier Seven: These Guys Are Also Starters
- Derek Carr, Las Vegas (QB26, Pick 187)
- Geno Smith, Seattle (QB23, Pick 161)
- Daniel Jones, N.Y. Giants (QB28, Pick 196)
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland (QB21, Pick 144)
- Will Levis, Tennessee (QB24, Pick 163)
These are, undoubtedly, starting quarterbacks in the National Football League. None of these guys have anyone looking over their shoulders, but they’re also (1) bad (2) their team is bad, or (3) both! There’s a bit of upside here, but I prefer the rushing of Daniel Jones over anything else in this tier. This group is likely to hover around 50% rostered, meaning you’ll see them a lot in my (shameless plug) weekly streamers articles.
Tier Eight: Bryce Young
- Bryce Young, Carolina (QB27, Pick 190)
He is a football player in the National Football League who, barring injury, will start seventeen games.
Tier Nine: Maybe Starters
- Bo Nix, Denver (QB31, Pick 204)
- Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas (QB33, Pick 252)
- Justin Fields, Pittsburgh (QB25, Pick 177)
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh (QB30, Pick 200)
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota (QB34, Pick 254)
- Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas (QB35, Pick 281)
RIP in peace to J.J. McCarthy, who went out for the season between me starting this piece and me getting to this point. Nix seems to have the job in Denver, though he isn’t that great, he feels like he has Jim Harbaugh Alex Smith upside. Then you get the Minshew-O’Connell battle, which seems to be tilting towards Minshew. None of these guys are going to be startable on a weekly basis except whoever wins that Steelers starting gig. My money is on Russell Wilson, so he gets the nod as my favorite in this tier.
