The Buccaneers offense overachieved relative to expectations last season behind Baker Mayfield, and they mostly ran it back, with some bulking up in the depth chart, adding a running back and a receiver. But, what can we take from the 2024 iteration of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for fantasy football? I woke up feeling dangerous, so let’s dive on into the undervalued and overvalued player, and one sleeper, for the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers!
Overvalued: Rachaad White, Running Back (RB13, Pick 41 Overall)
Glorified Volume Merchant Rachaad White was a couple of weeks away from making his way off of our fantasy football rosters before the Buccaneers decided to throw him the ball a ton. Bad Alvin Kamara averaged 14 carries for 46.4 yards, and 3.2 receptions for 19.6 yards, per game, in the first five weeks of the season. He had just one touchdown and finished outside the top 20 at the position in four of his five games (including RB39 and RB33 finishes). Then, the Buccaneers decided that they were going to throw him the ball a ton. His rushing volume went up slightly (16.8 carries for 63.2 yards per game) but he suddenly caught four catches for 43 yards per game, which made him a fantasy football darling. He volumed his way into eleven top-20 finishes for the rest of the season.
But, he was horrific on a per-touch basis. He was 33rd in yards created per touch, 57th in true yards per carry, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 23rd in juke rate. He just had a lot of volume, so he accumulated stats (fourth-most receptions, second-most carries, and 34th in fantasy points per opportunity). The Buccaneers brought in Bucky Irving, a dynamic pass-catching back out of Oregon, to wrest some of that volume away. We saw what happened with a volume merchant who got competition last season with Dameon Pierce in Houston. Don’t be left holding the bag.
Undervalued: Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver (WR36, Pick 73 overall)
Chris Godwin finished last season as WR34, and many have decided that he is somehow going to end up worse than that this season. Except, his WR34 finish hides the good things that happened just below the surface and cast Chris Godwin into the pits of Hel after sacrificing him on the Altar of Touchdown Luck. Godwin finished within the top 20 at the position in targets, routes, receptions, YAC, and PlayerProfiler’s route win rate. Unfortunately, he finished with just two receiving touchdowns, down from five the year prior, and 11 in 2022. That is a horrific touchdown rate and one that is likely to right itself in 2024. Chris Godwin had 83 receptions, and the 10 other receivers who had between 73 and 83 receptions all had 7.1 touchdowns on average. Should Chris Godwin just get back to average, then he will right that ship, and finish as a backend WR2.
Sleeper: Bucky Irving, Running Back (RB57, Pick 172 Overall)
Irving lets perfect be the enemy of good, frequently getting pulled down at or around the line of scrimmage trying to find the perfect hole. But, in space, his contact balance and burst work well to knock off chunk plays.
Here’s the thing, though: Bucky Irving is a better football player than Rachaad White. However, Rachaad White already has a role in the offense as a pass catcher, where he has 128 targets through his first two years in the league (the seventh-most running back targets in the last two seasons). White also, unfortunately, isn’t much in the way of a runner, so I am not particularly sure where this leaves Irving in the Buccaneers’ pecking order. White, presumably, has the lead-back role down (for now), but Irving is the better player. Irving likely starts as a straight backup before carving out an increasingly large role for himself as the season progresses.
Bucky Irving will carve a role out for himself as the season progresses, the only question is if he usurps Rachaad White, and ends up as 1A, or 1B. I will stick firmly by the assertion that Bucky Irving is a better football player than Rachaad White and that you should tag him as a draft-and-stash sleeper while you await the inevitable (that a better player takes over the backfield). If it never emerges, it’s unlikely that you’ll do this before taking a kicker or defense, so worse things have happened.
