Of all 32 teams in the NFL, of all the sets of weaponry, the Patriots are certainly one of them. Undoubtedly, they will field an offense this season. An offense full of players, some playing running back. Others play wide receiver, per reports. There are also rumors of tight ends and at least one quarterback in the mix. That all is to say that the Patriots are not. I repeat NOT the team you turn to when you need to find someone with some punch. That being said, my bookies say I have to write about all 32 teams or they start pulling out my toenails. They say they’re starting with the “piggie that had roast beef,” whatever that means. Anyway, like I said, this offense is likely to be terrible, and it’s likely to end up with a constantly rotating cast of players contributing in 3-4 week spurts that you’d be exercising better judgment and more sanity by simply… not… going after a Patriot.
Overvalued: Ja’Lynn Polk, Wide Receiver (WR79, Pick 187 Overall)
Polk isn’t going very highly at all he’s mostly been just a fever dream of Best Ball drafters who have grown tired of clicking the same names on a loop. His hype is the result of Best Ball Brain and is mostly a mirage. Why? There are simply too many people there, and it’s an offense that does not focus on the receiver.
The Patriots cleaned house last season, firing some guy who couldn’t even get his likeness into Madden (Bill something?). They brought in Jerod Mayo to run the team, and Alex Van Pelt to run the offense. Van Pelt spent the last four years running the Browns’ offense, which can give us some insight into his tendencies. His target distribution tendencies in his four years in Cleveland paint a bleak picture for Ja’Lynn Polk—or any wide receiver on this roster, for that matter—to break out in 2024. In his four years with the Browns, the tight ends garnered between 26.6% and 30% of targets in each season. This is in addition to running backs garnering between 16% and 20% of targets in any given year under Van Pelt. The result? The Browns ranked in the bottom ten in wide receiver target share in all four of his seasons as OC. And, as a kicker, they only passed the ball to anyone 51.7% of the time under his tutelage, and that was the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL under Van Pelt’s tenure.
So, we have a target crunch problem from other positions. There’s also a target crunch at his position, as well. While Van Pelt ran the Browns, the top target-getter averaged 7.6 targets per game, while the #2 receiver averaged 5.7. That is a very narrow band, and suggests that finding the “alpha” in this wide receiver room is a fool’s errand: there won’t be one.
There’s also that Ja’Lynn Polk isn’t very good at football, which is something a lot of Polks Folks tend to forget.
Undervalued: Hunter Henry, Tight End (TE18, Pick 161 Overall)
If things go horribly for you, then Hunter Henry is probably the tight end I feel most okay about ending up with. He’s the quintessential blob tight end, finishing with between 8 and 14 PPR points (4 catches, 40 yards to 4 catches, 40 yards, and a touchdown) in 33 of his 103 career games, the second-most tight end games with this criteria since he entered the league. He’s the back-end blob, mostly because he’s capitalized on limited attempts. He’s finished top-eight in fantasy points per target at tight end in two of his three seasons with the Patriots, and five of seven seasons overall. Add that to the Van Pelt TE target focus as mentioned above, and you have an easy value on your hands.
Sleeper: Drake Maye, Quarterback (QB31, Pick 231 Overall)
When you look at the Patriots offense, they don’t have anyone with fantasy football stud upside other than Rhamondre “LaGarrette Blount” Stevenson. They’re looking to likely start the season with Jacoby Brissett under center, but I doubt that lasts very long. Eventually, this island of misfit toys will need to see what they have in their top-three pick quarterback, and enough is going on here that Maye can figure it out.
When I watched Maye, it reminded me a ton of Justin Herbert, but one who was slightly less willing to stand in the pocket. So maybe Justin Herbert with a dash of Ryan Tannehill or Tyrod Taylor’s willingness to cut and run if things don’t go his way. He had more wow throws on tape than Caleb Williams did, and that would hopefully help along with players like Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and the husk of Tyquan Thornton. While Maye won’t have a great setup headed into his rookie season, his weapons are weak but deep. There are a lot of WR2s and WR3s on this team, which makes me reticent to take anyone who isn’t designed to touch the ball on given plays (the running backs and quarterbacks). Still, if you gather up everyone, there’s going to be enough value here to make a run at it in the second half of the season.
He’s a fantastic draft-and-stash in 2QB leagues and a guy to keep in your Rolodex when he garners starts if you’re streaming quarterbacks.
