Well, the Rams certainly hit that rebuild in a hurry. After falling short of expectations in 2022, many expected the Rams to take a step back, retool, and then make another run at it. An unexpected Puka Nacua, as well as other contributors, made their trip back to the playoffs much sooner than expected. Now, unfortunately, they will be without—as the NFC West breathes a collective sigh of relief—all-time great defensive tackle Aaron Donald, as Donald retired after the 2023 season. But, we aren’t worried about real football; what about fantasy football? What do the Rams have in store for fantasy football players this season, a year after sporting two late ADP darlings in Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua?
Overvalued: Kyren Williams, Running Back (RB7, Pick 15 Overall)
In the past, I called the overvalued player the “bust,” and players like Kyren Williams made me modify that to just overvalued this season. Does it hurt the SEO? Maybe. Does it make me feel better about things? Maybe?
Anyway, Kyren Williams is a borderline first-round pick, going in the same range as Jonathan Taylor & Saquon Barkley. As he goes after both of these guys, my ire isn’t quite as forceful. Unfortunately, he goes before guys like De’Von Achane and Derrick Henry. While Kyren was a force when he was on the field last year, the Rams brought in competition for him with rookie running back Blake Corum. Corum does all the things that Kyren does, just a little worse. He’s coming in to spell Kyren, who missed five games and still ranked inside the top 15 in carries, red zone touches, routes run, and evaded tackles. He was a monster when he played, but the Rams were worried about that when he played number.
The Rams will likely will take 228 carries and 48 targets across 17 games, instead of jamming them into just 12. So, that means that he will see a per-game dip, but not enough to make me super worried. Corum is there to spell Kyren, and to take the banger-down role. That’s just enough for me to take all four running backs that I’ve mentioned ahead of Kyren. He’s still in my top ten, I’m not crazy; I just worry about him repeating his touchdown production on a lesser workload, which would make his RB7 pick not a great value.
Undervalued: Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver (WR20, Pick 20 Overall)
Sorry, but I don’t believe that Cooper Kupp is suddenly bad, just because Puka Nacua exists. Especially since Puka Nacua mostly made the tight end room irrelevant more than anything else. Kupp suffered a hamstring injury that cost him the first four games of the 2023 season and sprained his ankle in week 11. So, it would stand to reason that he would probably start a little slow, and get hampered in the middle of the year. Except… he didn’t, really? In games where he finished above 30% snap share (so excluding the ankle injury game), Kupp paced out to 145 targets, 89 receptions, 1,122 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Those 249.9 PPR points would have been WR14 last season, just behind Brandin Aiyuk. That is before you even consider his injuries slowing him down during the season, so you can understand why I love Cooper Kupp at his value this season. The Rams are still the Rams, and with no Donald, they likely will need Kupp to do more this upcoming season. He’s not a sexy pick, but I don’t believe that he’s lost a step, especially since his 44.8% win rate versus man ranked 16th, and was better than both his 2022 (30.1%) and 2021 (40.1%) seasons.
Sleeper: Matthew Stafford, Quarterback (QB20, Pick 136 Overall)
Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp & Kyren Williams played in eight games together last season. In those 8 games, Matthew Stafford was the QB10, averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. If you combine Joe Burrow & Jake Browning into “QB Bengals” then he comes out as QB9 in fantasy points per game. That’ *checks notes* pretty good, and that makes him a hot value in fantasy drafts this year. He averaged 269 yards and just over 2 touchdowns per game, with 3 interceptions in those 8 games together. With a fully-armed and operational room of weapons, and the Rams giving him a slight pay bump to make sure he’s in the room, things should go well for Stafford this year. If you’re in a 2QB league, that’s just free money.
