The poor, poor Packers. They had another long, hard-fought campaign end at the hands of the 49ers. The cast is different, but the results were the same. Luckily for Green Bay fans, however, they seem to have a third good quarterback in a row, and given the average Wisconsinite’s nitrate and alcohol consumption, the Brett Favre-Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love handoff might last entire lifetimes. But what about 2024, and fantasy football? Let’s dive into the 2024 Packers and their overvalued and undervalued pick, as well as a sleeper.
Undervalued: Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver (WR35, Pick 71 Overall)
4for4 put out an article this month outlining the “stickiest” stats, or the stats that tend to roll forward year-to-year. They specifically outlined two statistics: yards per route run, and first downs per route run, as the most predictive rate stats as indicators of future success. While Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson get bandied about as potential sleepers or undervalued players on this roster, they ranked third and fourth on the Packers in both of the stickiest stats (first rounds per route run & yards per route run). Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks (2.06 & 2.07 yards per route run) were in a virtual tie for first, and Reed ranked second on this team in first downs per route run, with 8.3% of his routes ending in a first down. He also led the team in receiving touchdowns.
It’s clear from his performance down the stretch (7.5 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game in his last four games) that he is the best receiver on the Packers, despite Christian Watson’s explosiveness. Speaking of which…
Overvalued: Christian Watson, Wide Receiver (WR41, Pick 90 Overall)
Christian Watson likely ends up somewhere around WR41 on a per-game basis, but that has more to do with his 12 touchdowns in 20 games in his career than anything else. On a per-route basis, he’s the worst receiver on the Packers. He ranks third on the team in yards per route run, and he’s dead last by a decent clip in first downs per route run. He had a big year in 2022 that had people hoping for a breakout in 2023, but that’s because he hardly played in 2022, and seemingly every catch turned into a long touchdown. That regressed a bit last year, as Watson finished inside the top 24 just two times thanks to injuries and “not being that great at this.”
Watson is an elite deep threat, I will never take that away from him. However, his role and availability don’t match consistent fantasy football performance. I will be fading Watson for the third straight season, which has yet to keep me up at night.
Sleeper: Dontayvion Wicks, Wide Receiver (WR67, Pick 157 Overall)
On the Football Absurdity Podcast, I reluctantly said that I was in on MarShawn Lloyd as the sleeper in Green Bay, but I’m changing my tune. I’m Wicks Pilled, and I don’t care who knows it. Wicks led the Packers in both yards per route run (2.07) and first downs per route run (.107). If you’ve been paying attention to the article’s theme, that’s good and bodes extremely well for his prospects with the Packers.
Wicks rarely saw the field last season, getting five or more targets five times. However, in those games, he averaged 4.2 catches 63 yards, and he scored twice in those five games. Wicks is a deeper pick, going after kickers and defenses in most drafts. But, with Jordan Love’s progression and a relatively flat wide receiver room, I’d take Wicks over Watson, at cost, every single time.
