The Denver Broncos are going to be very bad this year. They cut Russell Wilson, and still owe him a ton of money, but they are going with Bo Nix at quarterback instead. They also moved on from Jerry Jeudy, and did all this to take their medicine now to come out of this with an intact salary cap. Unfortunately, that means that the roster is littered with subpar talent, giving them a 5-win upside. Still, every team has fantasy-relevant players, so let’s take a look at this season’s overvalued and undervalued player, and a very special sleeper (that is near and dear to my heart).
Overvalued: Javonte Williams, Running Back (RB30, Pick 92 Overall)
At this point, I’m not entirely sure what upside Williams provides. He’s an inefficient back who you have to slice-and-dice to find a set of high value touches. If you get rid of his bad games before he missed a week, then it took an unusually-high 9 targets in week 18 last season to get him just shy of 4 targets per game, and his 15.4 carries per game would be of more value if he wasn’t hanging out at a cool 3.46 yards per carry, and 4.12 yards per target. You can see hwow you have to chop up things very narrowly to squeeze upside out of Javonte.
Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin are better pass catchers, and Audric Estimé is a better runner. What, exactly, is Williams’ upside? 20 touches for 89 yards per game, in a bad offense, assuming he holds off the talented running backs behind him? So he goes RB30 and his upside is RB22. No thanks; I am fully out on Williams at any price.
Undervalued: Marvin Mims, Wide Receiver (WR73, Pick 173 Overall)
Marvin Mims is the second-best wide receiver on this roster on a bad day, and no amount of Troy Franklin could scare me off of Mims at his ADP. The Broncos barely used Mims last season, but every time he touched the ball, it seemed like an electric play followed; Mims had four of the seven-longest plays for the Broncos last season, despite notching just 31 touches. He’s the most electric player on the offense, but didn’t get any significant chance at performing last season thanks to Sean Payton’s undying dual loyalty to former Saints and proving he’s the smartest person in the room getting Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey touches. Payton might have no choice but to trust Mims this season, and if he does, then we are off to the races.
Sleeper: Audric Estimé, Running Back (RB62, Pick 203 Overall)
Estimate is an absolute tank of a runner, and a complete powerman 5000, crushing defenders by falling forward or just carrying them on his back en route to long touchdowns. That’s his number one defining trait, and a good one for a running back to have: it’s damn near impossible to bring him down. He’s an incredible pass blocker, which limits his PPR upside, but you can’t stop him within five yards, which explains why he had a 6.4 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns in 2023. He has the ability to be a three-down back, which is completely missing in this running back class outside of very few, including Estime.
The Broncos backfield is shockingly thin, with only Javonte Williams (who has never been a bell cow back, not even in college) and glorified scatbacks Samaje Perine & Jaleel McLaughlin challenging Audric Estime for carries. While Williams’ top-line numbers are bad, he created a ton of yards (20th-most in the league) thanks to volume and an above-average yards created per carry metric from PlayerProfiler.com.
I say this without hyperbole that Audric Estime could surpass Javonte Williams as the team’s RB1 before Halloween. Williams has always thrived as a part-time, home run hitting back. This is exemplified by his awful juke rate statistic (15.5%) and his high breakaway run rate (5.5%). His yards created per touch and breakaway run rate are almost identical to Najee Harris’ statistics in 2023… and his juke rate is worse than Najee’s.
