It’s almost August, so it’s high time we turn our attention to fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts for every NFL team. The ADP is per 4for4’s ADP data. We started with the AFC East, switched to the AFC North, and we now move on to the AFC South. We answer none of those questions, and more, with the Houston Texans’ sleeper, breakout, and bust! Will Mike Vrabel angrily storm off again? Is it Will Levis SZN? Can DeAndre Hopkins get enough targets to matter in Tennessee? We answer none of those questions, and more, with the Tennessee Titans’ sleeper, breakout, and bust!
Sleeper: Chig Okonkwo, Tight End (TE18, Pick 155 Overall)
Last season, four tight ends had over 100 targets: Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and Tyler Higbee. This season, Chigoziem Okonkwo will make his way onto that list. Chig had only 46 targets last season, but he also didn’t run double-digit routes until week eleven. Starting at that point, he averaged 4.4 targets for 3.4 receptions and 39.7 yards per game. While that isn’t exactly thrilling, I also said that he was going to get up and over 100 targets over the course of the season. And that’s something I firmly stand by. The reason? He very well could be the best pass catcher on the Titans, and they agree. Okonkwo was targeted on one out of every three routes he ran last season (first among tight ends). While Treylon Burks is the clubhouse leader for that title, Chig had a higher yard per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception than Treylon Burks last season.
Also, he ranked first or second among all tight ends in those statistics. Okonkwo is going for free in most drafts and is an ideal part of the tight end blob to snag to finish inside the top ten.
Breakout: Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver (WR51, Pick 139 Overall)
There are exactly two returning passing options available to the Tennessee Titans, one is Chig Okonkwo, and the other is Treylon Burks. The Titans traded away A.J. Brown for a first-round pick specifically to replace him with Treylon Burks, and Burks fell flat on his face his rookie season. He struggled with asthma throughout camp and dealt with turf toe and a concussion in the regular season. Burks never really got going last season, playing four games, then missing four, then playing four, then missing two, and playing in three games. You can’t build any sort of consistency like that. But, he flashed big play upside with his yards after the catch ability. He finished the year with 4.88 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked 21st at the position and barely trailed Davante Adams (4.93), Justin Jefferson (4.95) and Brandon Aiyuk (4.97). Just get him as your WR3 or WR4 and profit, as he’s in line for 120 targets this season.
Bust: Derrick Henry, Running Back (RB4, Pick 9 Overall)
I want to start this by saying that Derrick Henry, barring injury, will finish the season as a top-ten running back. The Titans’ offense flows through him, and there’s nothing about him that indicates that that is going to change anytime soon. That having been said, RB4? In PPR? He’s about to be 30, and his 33 receptions last year were his career-high. I still love Derrick Henry, but the RB4 price tag is a bit much to swallow, given that Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Josh Jacobs are all likely to end up with far more targets than Henry while providing incredible rushing statistics, as well. Henry is a slam dunk to end as a top-ten running back, but with the question marks surrounding the Titans’ offense, I don’t want to invest in him as a top-five running back if I can help it.
I still love Henry, but in PPR, there are better options in the top five.
