It’s almost July, which means that it’s high time we turn our attention to fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts for every NFL team. The ADP is per 4for4’s ADP data, pulled in the last week of June. We will start with the AFC East, and after covering the Buffalo Bills, we move on to the Miami Dolphins. Can Tua Tagovailoa play all seventeen games? Will Tyreek Hill beat the case, yet again? Will Mike McDaniel ever just be normal for like 30 seconds? We answer none of those questions, and more, with the Miami Dolphins’ sleeper, breakout, and bust!
Sleeper: De’Von Achane, Running Back (RB39, Pick 117 Overall)
Let’s do a quick rundown of the Miami Dolphins running back room (and QUICK, before Dalvin Cook potentially lands there): Raheem Mostert (hurt all the time), Jeff Wilson (hurt all the time), De’Von Achane (new hotness rookie taken in the third round), Salvon Ahmed, and Myles Gaskin. Ahmed and Gaskin are likely nothing more than depth at this point, leaving a clear path for De’Von Achane to ascend to fantasy football glory. Achane isn’t a down-to-down runner, but he is extremely fast and a home run hitter. Unfortunately, he’s also small (5’9” 188 pounds) and doesn’t realize how small he is, and frequently invites contact. This could be a major issue in the NFL, but it wasn’t in college, where he touched the ball 386 times for 2,471 yards across the last two seasons at Texas A&M. He has track speed, and he’s in an offense that emphasizes and maximizes speed. Achane is a great bench stash player for the first few weeks of the season, as he could be an RB2 if given the opportunity to produce.
Breakout: Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback (QB12, Pick 98 Overall)
I really hate the game that fantasy analysts do where they say, “We have this guy with two highly-ranked weapons, but we don’t rank him highly, what are we doing, here?” But… We have this guy with two highly-ranked weapons, but we don’t rank him highly, what are we doing, here? By average draft position, Tua has two top-ten fantasy football wide receivers (Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle), so he should be ranked very highly. Unfortunately, he also has a significant concussion problem, which is causing people to pause when his name comes up. Personally, he’s a great QB2, mostly because he has tremendous upside playing in Mike McDaniel’s system.
Tua left two games early last season and missed several more due to concussion issues, but in the eleven games where he played at least 90% of snaps, Tua averaged 32 passes, 21 completions, 285 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game. If he stays healthy and upright, then we could have a breakout on our hands, here.
Bust: Jeff Wilson, Running Back (RB57, Pick 182 Overall)
It’s hard to call anyone else a bust, really. This is more of a cautionary tale of (1) knowing a player’s name, and (2) knowing the player ahead of him is likely to get hurt. That’s where we are sitting with Jeff Wilson. The 49ers traded Wilson to the Dolphins after acquiring Christian McCaffrey, to give him a chance in an offense that he knows, where he would flourish. With Miami, he played on a 1,000 yard pace, averaging 49 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards, on 12 touches per game. Unfortunately, that was before the Dolphins went out and spent a day two pick on De’Von Achane. While I know that Wilson will have a role, I fear that snagging him as the “next man up” will give you a couple of tepid RB30 finishes before the Dolphins move on to Achane.
