The NFL season hit its stride this week, with Thanksgiving just a few days away, and the league is serving up some juicy matchups on Sunday morning and into Sunday afternoon. We had quite a bit of change among some players, and it’s time to see if we have some guard-changing situations around the league. Let’s dive into three players who have some changing situations that make me wonder if my thoughts are absurd or reality. Let’s dive into some week twelve questions with the Week Twelve Absurdity Check (and as always, a massive shout out to Nathan Jahnke at Pro Football Focus for the snaps, routes, and carries data)!
Did TreVeyon Henderson Destroy Rhamondre Stevenson’s Fantasy Value?
TreVeyon Henderson had his coming-out party in week ten, finishing with 150 total yards and three scores. He then showed out four days later on Thursday Night Football in week eleven, finishing with three total touchdowns and 93 total yards. But Rhamondre Stevenson missed both of those games, and seemingly no amount of Rhamondre fumbling could get him off the field, despite what Henderson was doing when he was on the field.
This week, Rhamondre returned, and Henderson took a slight step back. Henderson finished up week twelve with an 81-yard, zero-score game in week thirteen. Despite taking a step back, it looks like Henderson is the new RB1 in New England.
Before his injury, Rhamondre Stevenson led the way with, admittedly, paltry volume (10.4 carries, 2.4 targets per game). Below the hood, Stevenson averaged a route on 49.2% of dropbacks and averaged a 61.7% snap share. In this game, he had six carries and two targets, totaling 10 yards. But things got worse from there, as Rhamondre played just 30.7% of snaps and ran a route on only 25.7% of dropbacks. But, it wasn’t all bad for Rhamondre, as he had multiple carries inside the five; he just failed to punch them in.
The matchups on the horizon are also highly favorable to both Henderson and Stevenson, with the Giants and Bills’ woeful run defenses on the docket in the next two weeks. So, things didn’t go well today, but the upcoming matchups make it hard to pull the plug on Stevenson, at least for now.
Should We Cut David Montgomery?
David Montgomery had a terrible game in week twelve; there’s no way to slice it that comes out encouraging for his future. He finished with five carries for 18 yards (3.6 YPC) and caught three balls for nineteen yards (6.9 YPT). Jahmyr Gibbs, on the other hand, finished with a slightly better 15 carries for 219 yards, and 11 catches for 45 yards, scoring three touchdowns. He’s taken over as the lead back in Detroit, at least from the top level, but what about his opportunity share?
He’s the dominant RB1 there, too. Gibbs is averaging 65% of snaps on the year, compared to 40% for Montgomery. He’s also out-carrying Montgomery by 40 carries on the season, and is running nearly twice as many routes on the year (177-89).
David Montgomery has, predictably, taken a step back this season, as the Sonic to his Knuckles dominates backfield touches and opportunities for Detroit. That having been said, before the past couple of weeks, Montgomery has been a perfectly cromulent running back. While he hasn’t been dominant, he’s been flexworthy more often than not, finishing as RB30 or better in seven of his first ten games (70%), and was RB25 on the season heading into the week. If you fear that Gibbs will take over a bigger share of touches, then I understand benching David Montgomery, but I personally would not go anywhere near cutting David Montgomery. To do so is giving in to the disappointment that he isn’t living up to expectations, not evaluating the player’s situation on the field.
Is Wan’Dale Robinson a Must-Start Wide Receiver?
Wan’Dale Robinson finished week eleven with a fantastic 14 targets, nine catches, 156 yards, and one touchdown in Jameis Winston’s second start. It was undoubtedly an excellent game for the man known as “New York Slice Jakobi Meyers” (our podcast nickname for a short-area PPR-scoring receiver). But, does it make him must-start?
Well, no, but it does make it easier to start him in three-wide receiver leagues. In the five weeks before week twelve, he averaged 11.3 PPR points, which is a valuable floor, but also WR37 in that span. He also finished inside the top-25 zero times in that span, and inside the top-30 just twice. He is a great plug-and-play receiver for bye weeks, however, because he gets significant volume: he now has nine or more targets in five of his last six games. Unfortunately, he is not a must-start receiver; while his ceiling game was nice, his floor games barely make him a startable receiver in twelve-team, three-wide receiver leagues.
