It’s already week ten, and it feels like it was just week nine. Crazy how that works. Anyway, like every week, I have some players available to fill in the cracks for your fantasy football rosters, available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues. For you deep divers, I have players available in at least 90% of leagues.
QUARTERBACKS
Michael Penix Jr. (22% rostered) “at” Indianapolis (Germany)
Penix is coming off a 22.74 fantasy point game last week, and the Colts are a good matchup lately. I know they just got Sauce Gardner, but he also had to get his bearings and fly to Europe for this one, so I don’t think that he comes in hard in his first game as a Colt. Jacoby Brissett and Justin Herbert just ran roughshod over the Colts (740 combined yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and 50 rushing yards). Despite having Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are weirdly pass-heavy, and that means Michael Penix will feast on Drake London feasting on the Colts. A sort of non-horrifying human centipede of fantasy football production.
Marcus Mariota (11% rostered) versus Detroit
We still aren’t sure if J.J. McCarthy is good. Still, the Lions gave up three touchdowns to McCarthy last week, and three touchdowns to four of the last five quarterbacks to play against them, and multiple touchdowns to every quarterback (except, weirdly, Baker Mayfield). Mariota has 16+ PPR points in two of his three starts this season, taking on the Raiders, the Falcons, and the Chiefs. His dual-threat running ability (30.5 yards per game this season) gives him a good floor in what will likely be a quarterback-heavy game script.
Dillon Gabriel (10% rostered) at the New York Jets
The Jets had a fire sale this week, trading not only their two best defenders but possibly the two best players on their entire roster in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. So, the Browns are unlikely to face any significant resistance to their offensive efforts. Even with Sauce & Williams, the Jets were a top-ten quarterback matchup, and Gabriel’s 35 passing attempts per game in his starts will be enough to snag him a couple of touchdowns (if Quinshon Judkins doesn’t steal those touchdowns first).
RUNNING BACKS
Bhayshul Tuten (32% rostered) at Houston
The Jaguars are down to Parker Washington as their WR1, and a guy they traded for earlier this week (Jakobi Meyers) as their WR2. This tells me that, against a strong pass defense, the Jaguars will likely want to run the ball. Travis Etienne handled a huge volume last week, but that trickled down to Tuten, where he had double-digit touches on twenty snaps, while getting goal-line carries. Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency has dropped recently (his advanced metrics put him alongside Nick Chubb and Isiah Pacheco over the last four weeks), meaning that more opportunities for Tuten are on the horizon coming out of the Bye. This is a preferred stash more than a start, but it isn’t a great week for low-rostered running backs.
Emari Demercado (27% rostered) at Seattle
Bam Knight ticked above the 50% rostership threshold, so I can’t put him here, but Demercado has had some bad vibes (his not-a-touchdown fumble, leaving early with an injury, and the bye week) that overshadow his positive trends. He has 78 or more total yards in each of his last two games with multiple touches, getting fourteen carries for 79 yards last week. The Seahawks have given marginal backs 12.5+ PPR points in each of their previous two games (to Chris Rodriguez and Woody Marks), and Demercado notched double-digit fantasy points the last time these two teams matched up.
Blake Corum (10% rostered) at San Francisco
Corum has thirteen touches in each of the last two games, and the 49ers are quickly running out of guys to stop them. By all reasonable accounts, the Rams’ offense dominated the 49ers’ defense the last time they played, but key fumbles led the 49ers to victory. Corum will likely get goal-line opportunities and a chance to exorcise those Thursday Night Demons from the last time these two teams met up.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Alec Pierce (39% rostered) versus Atlanta (Germany)
Alec Pierce is finally working himself into being a real part of the passing game, and he now sits at a 20% target share and a 48% air yards share on the season, thanks to his second-ranked average depth of target, and getting two-of-every-three Daniel Jones deep throws. Long story short: he is the downfield passing game in Indianapolis. The Falcons are bottom-three in downfield (20+ air yard targets) yards per target over the last five weeks, but second in yards per catch in the same timeframe. Alec Pierce, for his own, on those same 20+ yard downfield throws, is fifth in catch rate, third in yards per target, and second in targets per route run. It’s all setting up for a big Alec Pierce week in Germany.
Christian Watson (30% rostered versus Philadelphia
With Matthew Golden “fighting” to play on Monday Night Football, and Golden not being worth his draft stock so far anyway this season, and with the mitigating factor of Tucker Kraft leaving the Packers without an explosive play threat in the passing game, everything is narrowing into a two-part Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs game. Doubs is already highly rostered, but Watson hasn’t caught up yet. Watson is still working into the rotation, with just four targets in his first two games back, but he has 185 air yards across the last two games, making him a boom-bust play against a tough Eagles defense.
Olamide Zaccheaus (4%) versus New York Giants
The Bears are starting to round into shape, and Zacchaeus is a key part of that in the last couple of weeks, getting fifteen targets in the previous two weeks, and six or more targets in three of the last four games. Zacchaeus is coming off back-to-back 10+ PPR games, and the Giants have given up six 11+ PPR points over the previous three weeks.
TIGHT ENDS
Colston Loveland (46% rostered) versus New York Giants
Loveland finished last week with six catches, 118 yards, and two scores on seven targets. Most people want to poo-poo that line because of his 58-yard catch-and-run touchdown at the end of the game, ignoring that the math shows he had a five-catch, 60-yard, one-touchdown game before that play. The Bengals are the best tight end matchup in the league, so you can’t expect all of that to happen again. But Loveland is getting increasingly involved, going from three targets four weeks ago to four, five, and seven in the subsequent three weeks. He may not have a massive performance this week against the Giants, but they also aren’t likely to stop him, either, as they are the eighth-best matchup this week for tight ends.
Cade Otton (33% rostered) versus New England
As the Buccaneers’ passing game runs out of weapons, Cade Otton grows in relevance. He has eight or more PPR points in each of his last four games, and 10+ in three of his previous four. He’s quietly approaching weekly top-twelve status and has been top-fifteen in three of his last four games. At worst, he’s a floor play, but the Buccaneers face the twelfth-best matchup this week, as the Patriots are a top-half matchup against tight ends.
AJ Barner (10% rostered) versus Arizona
Barner has had double-digit fantasy days in four of his last five games, with touchdowns in three of his previous five. This one is shaping up to be another Seattle Seahawks whooping, but the Cardinals have a strong run defense, so short-area plays go to the tight end this week. The Cardinals are ninth in fantasy points per game to tight ends, but they are a neutral matchup this week in the model. The Seahawks are hitting their stride, and AJ Barner is a big part of that.
