When the Commanders and Bears finish up Monday Night Football, one-third of the NFL regular season will already be in the books. It feels like just yesterday that we were arguing about whether Shedeur Sanders was good in light of Dillon Gabriel’s performa—oh. Well, I was referring to August, but I guess some things never change. If that adage were true, it would make fantasy football easier. Unfortunately, it isn’t, and every week shakes the fantasy football landscape. Every week, I pick apart three questions that came out of that week’s action in the Absurdity Check.
Is the Arizona running back room a hands-off?
There was a mad scramble to pick up Zonovan “Bam” Knight early Sunday morning as sentient press release wire/”NFL Insider” Adam Schefter announced that Bam Knight would take on a bigger role in the backfield this weekend. That came to fruition, as the two-headed backfield of week five, with Emari Demercado and Michael Carter splitting naps switched up, with Knight leading the way with 37 snaps, and Carter coming in second with 32 snaps. Emeri Demercado did not fumble a ball, nor did he get shoved by his coach, but he also played just three snaps due to leaving with an injury
Knight and Carter, unfortunately, split things in an exceptionally annoying way, outside of their snaps. Carter finished with nine carries and four targets (on 21 routes), whereas Knight finished with eleven carries and one target (on 13 routes). Neither were exceptionally exciting for the fantasy managers who started them, with Knight finishing with 54 total yards (and a score), and Carter finishing with 64 total yards.
While those final lines are not encouraging (touchdown aside), it doesn’t have much to do with the opponents. While the Colts are a strong matchup (27th in fantasy points allowed to running backs), the touch volume and split are far more concerning. Neither one of these backs is a dynamic player who can produce on fewer than 15 touches. If they are splitting 25 opportunities between them, then I don’t have much interest in them.
They have the staunch Packers and Seahawks defenses on the schedule in the next three weeks, with the sieve-like Cowboys defense in two games (with their bye in the middle). Trey Benson will be in his timeline for return at that point, so it might not be a position group you’ll feel good about starting until he gets back and solidifies the room.
Is Rico Dowdle Wally Pipping Chuba Hubbard?
Let’s set the table here with this question:
Heading into the fantasy football season, one of my #hottakes was that Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle weren’t all that different, really:
You can see in the advanced stats that Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard weren’t dissimilar. Dowdle shed slightly fewer tackles but acted as a better pass catcher and created more yards per touch. Other than that, everything else was a rounding error.
The Panthers paid Chuba Hubbard a hefty sum last season (4 years, $33 million), but in reality, most of that is vapor. The Panthers can move on from Chuba with a $7 million combined dead cap over the next three seasons. So, they really have as much loyalty to Hubbard as they do to Dowdle, who signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract this offseason.
Dowdle didn’t really get a chance to contribute in the first four weeks of the season; he was the clear 1B to Chuba Hubbard’s 1A. In the first four weeks of the season, Dowdle played 35% of snaps and averaged seven rush attempts and 1.5 targets per game, for 25.8 yards per game. Then, Chuba Hubbard missed the last two games with a calf injury. Rico Dowdle seized the opportunity during the previous two weeks, totaling 53 carries for 389 yards, kicking in 84 receiving yards to give him a whopping 473 yards over the last two games.
Chuba Hubbard, in contrast, had 311 total yards in the first four weeks. For Chuba bag holders, this is concerning, especially considering that the woebegone Carolina Panthers won each of the last two games, and Rico Dowdle is the reason why.
Dave Canales was non-committal when asked if Chuba would get his starting role back when he returned from his injury
While I doubt that Dowdle goes on to have the same career as Mickey Mantle, it appears as though he has surpassed Chuba Hubbard, at least for now. They’re remarkably similar from an advanced statistics perspective. There is no loyalty built into either contract. The Panthers are successful with Dowdle, and he’s straight up outperforming Hubbard.
It’s a situation to monitor, but it seems Dowdle is the lead back in Carolina.
Is Kendrick Re-Bourne a Must-Add Wide Receiver?
The 49ers made a nice little under-the-radar move after week one of the NFL season. They reunited with former-Niner-turned-former-Patriot, Kendrick Bourne, to fill out their depleted receiving corps. Brandon Aiyuk remained on IR, Demarcus Robinson was amid a suspension, and Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall were banged up. It felt like a stopgap measure to give the Niners a depth piece who had some grasp of the offense, to keep the receiver room from falling out from underneath Kyle Shanahan.
In the last two games, however, he’s turned into a revelation for San Francisco, as the Mac Jones-to-Kendrick Bourne connection is undeniable. Kendrick Bourne has 43.4 PPR points in his last two games, on 20 targets, 15 catches, and 248 yards over the previous two games. He was WR6 in week five, and after Sunday Night Football, he sits at WR9. While it’s a nice story, Aiyuk, Jennings, and Pearsall all still loom, sort of.
The most recent news report coming out of San Francisco regarding Aiyuk has a real, “we don’t know, so stop asking, ” vibe, as on October 2, Ian Rapoport reported that Aiyuk was “weeks away” from a return. Jauan Jennings has his own issues, as after the 449ers’loss, he revealed that he has five broken ribs he was trying to play through. And Pearsall didn’t practice once this past week, which means he will have to work his way back into relevancy.
So, that leaves Kendrick Bourne atop the heap in San Francisco; he is only 33% rostered after his week five performance, but that will—and should—double this week when waivers run.
