We’ve finally reached the part of the season where “small sample sizes” start to turn into regular old sample sizes. We’ve also reached the part of the season where teams stop experimenting and figuring out what might work, and go all out with what does. With that in mind, let’s look at three questions that will have fantasy football relevance in week six and beyond.
Did Jacory Croskey-Merritt Take Over The Washington Commanders’ Backfield?
If you were like me and had Jacory Croskey-Merritt in your top ten running backs predraft, congratulations. Also, email me, I want to give you a high five through the internet. The man who goes by Bill was good enough for the Commanders to shunt Brian Robinson off to the 49ers, but not good enough to stave off Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols after Austin Ekeler suffered a potentially career-ending Achilles injury.
This week, however, everything changed, as JCM led the way for the Commanders throughout the game, even after a fumble. He finished with eleven carries for 114 yards and two touchdowns, and caught two passes (on two targets) for 39 yards, despite Bluesky telling me that he couldn’t catch (because all they did was read his college box scores). Similarly, Chris Rodriguez had just five carries (for 7 yards), and Jeremy McNichols had only three opportunities (two targets and a carry)
While Croskey-Merritt dominated through the first three quarters, a key fourth-quarter fumble had me worried that Dan Quinn would throw this back into a disgusting maelstrom of shared targets. On the surface, it appears as though that was the case; Chris Rodriguez had 100% of his carries and 100% of his yards after that fumble (again, five carries for 1.4 yards per carry). Croskey-Merritt, on the other hand, had only three carries… for 34 yards. He was clearly the better back of the two as the Commanders tried to salt the game away.
The snap share, which went as split down the middle as it could last week (20 for each of JCM & Rodriguez, and 19 for McNichols) tilted toward Croskey-Merritt, who finished with 28 snaps while Rodriguez and McNichols had 15 a piece.
The death knell rang for Jeremy McNichols’ part of this timeshare last week, and Chris Rodriguez fell to Croskey-Merritt this week. Unless Dan Quinn decides to get cute going forward, JCM is the guy in Washington. He has incredibly soft landings next week against Chicago and in week seven against the Cowboys.
Is Darren Waller a Must-Start Tight End Again?
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” Darren Waller fooled us in New York, as he left Las Vegas and promptly fell off the face of the fantasy landscape. He then retired, leaving us holding bags of Darren Waller-sized proportions in our dynasty leagues.
And the great news? He’s back, baby. He played 32 snaps in week five, ran 27 routes, and finished with five catches on five targets, with 78 yards and a touchdown. He finished with an excellent 18.5% target rate and an elite 2.84 yards per route run. These are both impressive tight end numbers, and through two weeks, he averages the following per game to go alongside those numbers: 24 snaps, 18.5 routes, 4.5 targets, four catches, 52.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns.
But those advanced stats are exciting. Waller doesn’t currently qualify for the leaderboards, but according to PlayerProfiler.com, if he did, he would rank first in yards per route run, ahead of Tucker Kraft (2.63), and seventh in target rate, just ahead of Dalton Schultz (18.4%). So, these are elite numbers, and are in line with Jonnu Smith’s last season, who averaged 2.4 yards per route run, and a 19.9% target rate last season.
More importantly, every single catch either moved the chains or found the end zone. He’s taking up the Jonnu Smith Role, which is also vintage Waller: a legitimate focal point in the passing game, not just a checkdown option. The team clearly schemed for him, creating mismatches against hapless linebackers.
Fantasy-wise, this ends the debate. If you’ve been streaming tight ends, stop. The usage, efficiency, and trust are all there. Congratulations on your new stud tight end.
Is Emeka Egbuka the Best Rookie Wide Receiver?
I usually don’t like to write about someone two weeks in a row, but Egbuka forced my hand thanks to his historic pace.
With Travis Hunter relegated to the Shadow Realm in Jacksonville and Tetairoa McMillan left to fend for himself on the other end of Bryce Young’s passes, Emeka Egbuka is emerging as the most productive rookie wide receiver, and in fact, the most productive rookie offensive player, period. He finished Sunday with a ridiculous 7/163/1 line on seven targets. He outdueled fellow Buckeye Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which was no easy feat, as JSN finished with 8/132/1 on nine targets.
Here’s the thing: Ebguka’s start isn’t just good, it’s historic. Per Football Night in America, he is the first rookie wide receiver to start with 25 receptions and five receiving touchdowns in his first five games. But we all saw that; it gets better. He is in historic company, as his 25 catches, 445 yards, and five touchdowns put him alongside three other receivers in the last 40 years to finish with 400+ receiving yards and 4+ touchdowns in their first five games: Terry McLaurin, Ja’Marr Chase, and Randy Moss.
He’s crushing at all levels and with a myriad of routes. He’s also winning with every combination of receivers they’ve thrown out there. With & without Mike Evans and with and without Chris Godwin. He’s separated himself as the best receiver on this roster, and he is quickly gaining Baker Mayfield’s trust.
This isn’t a hot streak, either. He’s laying the foundation for a legitimate top-ten wide receiver push in his rookie campaign. He possesses productivity and consistency, as well as overall performance that is rare in rookies. He is here, and you can’t take him out of your lineup, as it’s officially reached “too cute” territory to do so.
