The Bye weeks are here, which means that we will be short on players until Thanksgiving. We’ve also seen numerous guard changes among offenses, with Jaxson Dart joining the starting lineup and injuries in the backfields of the Buccaneers, Jets, Cardinals, and Panthers leading to extra opportunities. Let’s look through players available in at least 50% of leagues, with a player available in at least 90% of leagues that should perform well this week.
QUARTERBACK
Jaxson Dart at New Orleans (31% rostered)
Dart started his career with a QB11 finish last week against the Chargers, rushing 10 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. That’s a good start for a guy whose abilities we are still unsure of. Dart balling out against a good Chargers defense (19th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks before playing against Dart) bodes well for his future, as much of his value is tied to his legs. The Saints are a bottom-three team in the league that has given up multiple touchdowns to every quarterback this season (ten total in four games), with all four quarterbacks totaling over 200 yards. They’ve faced two rushing quarterbacks this season, and both Kyler Murray & Josh Allen totaled at least 38 rushing yards.
Sam Darnold versus Tampa Bay (26% rostered)
Sam Darnold had a dreadful week one against the 49ers, finishing with 164 total yards and no touchdowns. Since then, however, he’s turned into a viable fantasy quarterback, averaging 16.9 fantasy points over the last three weeks against the Steelers, Saints, and Cardinals. The 49ers currently allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so struggling in that matchup is expected. This week, he gets the Buccaneers, who allow the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks despite playing against Michael Penix, Tyrod Taylor, and C.J. Stroud. Not exactly a murderer’s row, and with how the Seahawks are rolling right now, Darnold might be the best of the bunch.
Jake Browning versus Detroit (10% rostered)
Jake Browning his pants is the best option at 10% rostership or lower this week, and he might be the sneakiest play of them all. He played terribly in the last two weeks. Still, he also had two of the three literal worst matchups in the league this season, as the Vikings and Broncos allow the third-fewest and fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, respectively (they’ve allowed seven total TDs to quarterbacks, combined, across their eight games played). Browning gets a banged-up Lions defense this week that is dealing with injuries to its secondary, meaning that he will get a chance to throw (should the line stay upright). The Lions pummelled Joe Flacco into the bench last week, but allowed a middling 20.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks outside that game. It’s likely a situation where the Lions get up big early & let off the gas, allowing Browning and the Bengals to rack up some garbage time.
WIDE RECEIVER
Christian Kirk at Baltimore (32% rostered)
I stand by my assertion that Christian Kirk missing two games, then ranking third on the Texans in targets after getting eight in week three, definitely means something. Last week, however, the Texans got up on the Titans and went full turtle mode, running the ball 35 times in an effort to run out the clock before they blew it. So, Kirk finished with only four targets last week. However, he was still out there a ton, running a route on 70% of drop-backs (75% in week three) and playing 62% of snaps (65% week one). He didn’t get as many opportunities to produce, as the reduced play volume led to just 21 routes for Kirk compared to 30 for him the week prior.
The Ravens are a prime matchup to have a breakout game for Kirk, as they are as bad as any team this side of the 49ers. Roquan Smith, Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey, and Nnamdi Madubuike & Broderick Washington (both on IR) are all expected to miss the game on defense. Kyle Van Noy and Travis Jones are also facing the prospect of playing after missing last week. This team is obliterated on both sides of the ball, and Kirk and the Texans will take advantage of that fact.
Elic Ayomanor at Arizona (31% rostered)
Ayomanor is the only player on the Titans worth even taking a look at in the passing game this week, and that’s if you’re exceptionally desperate. The Cardinals are a good passing matchup, as they allow the fifth-most passing yards per game this year. This is mainly due to their investments in defense failing to gel thus far, as they rank in the middle of the pack in quarterback pressure rate, yards after the catch over expectation, and EPA/pass allowed. They’re a neutral matchup that you can press on to extract fantasy points. Ayomanor is the one most likely to cash in those fantasy points.
Adonai Mitchell versus Las Vegas (3% rostered)
This was originally Alec Pierce because that downfield role should prosper this week, but Pierce failed to clear concussion protocol. Pierce had five targets in each of his two games before missing last week with a concussion, but five targets for Pierce means more yardage than most; his yards per reception in those games stood at a whopping 18.1 air yards per target. Mitchell took over that role for Pierce last week, averaging 21.75 air yards per target. The downfield target has become a fruitful part of this passing game in recent weeks.
The Raiders have only faced eight pass attempts of 20+ air yards so far this season (the sixth-fewest in the league), but they allow the fifth-highest yards per play on such targets (17.3), with both Quentin Johnston and Terry McLaurin scoring long touchdowns on such plays.
RUNNING BACK
Emari Demercado (44% rostered)/Michael Carter (18% rostered) versus Tennessee
Many people are getting very far ahead of themselves about the Demercado & Carter backfield this weekend, but I am tempering my expectations. They have combined for seven touches so far this season, and neither has really stood out in their roles as the starting running backs in prior years. But there is still value here. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL, and allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs on the year. Teams are doing it on the ground and in the air against them (see each of Woody Marks’ touchdowns last week), so both Carter and Demercado can have a good week. Personally, I’m going with Carter for the touchdown upside, but Demercado has the PPR scam role locked down in this one. They could end up cannibalizing each other, but one or the other (or both!) could prosper this weekend.
Kendre Miller versus N.Y. Giants (26% rostered)
While I am not among those who believe that Kendre Miller’s usage means that the sky is falling for Alvin Kamara, his usage is encouraging for a streaming play in a good matchup, and this is a good matchup. Kendre Miller has 20 touches in the last two games and has the juice to get enough points to matter on those touches against the Giants. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, mostly because their pass rush gets blown off the ball on running plays. Their only blunder last week was a massive run to Omarion Hampton, to go alongside their massive runs to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Javonte Williams this season. Miller could take one all the way against the Giants.
Isaiah Davis versus Dallas (4% rostered)
Some will say “Sean Tucker” here (7% rostered), but the Seattle run defense is elite, so I won’t go against them if I can help it. Davis will take over as the RB2 for the Jets with Braelon Allen sidelined for the foreseeable future with his knee injury. Braelon Allen played over 30% of the snaps twice in his three healthy games with a fully healthy Justin Fields, getting some touches in those games. Davis should fill that role as the RB2 with some juice, but this has more to do with the matchup than the player. The Cowboys just gave up 40 points to the Packers, a week after giving up 31 to the Bears, a week after giving up 37 to the Giants. That is to say: their defense sucks. I’ll take a deep shot on a running back who will get ten touches against a terrible defense (that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season).
TIGHT END
Darren Waller at Carolina (50% rostered)
Darren Waller, despite his productivity in week four, was eased into the game plan. He ran just ten routes, but was targeted on four of them, and caught two touchdowns. He did all of this in his first action since the end of the 2023 season, coming out of retirement. That shows the plan for Darren Waller going forward: lots of targets, as soon as he can get them. Last year, Jonnu Smith was targeted on 24.6% of his routes, which was 4th in the NFL. They clearly want him to replace Jonnu, as they traded for Waller immediately after trading Jonnu. There are also injuries on this team. The loss of Tyreek Hill means the shape of this offense has to change. They can’t rely on him to get them out of jams anymore, which means quick targets to De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle & Waller.
The Panthers make for a great matchup after his tune-up start last week. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and have given up 7.5 or more PPR points to five tight ends in four games so far this season, with double-digit efforts from Trey McBride and Hunter Henry (and Brenton Strange finishing one yard shy of a double-digit week).
Dalton Schultz at Baltimore (19% rostered)
This is an extension of the extensive Christian Kirk streaming play earlier, but Roquan Smith gives this one a tad bit extra juice. Roquan Smith is fourteenth in the league in linebacker coverage snaps, and gives up 3.5 receptions for 41 yards per game, and he’s given up a touchdown (all stats are per NFL NextGen Stats with him as the closest defender). He’s been bad in coverage this season. Still, his replacement, Jacob Hummel, was even worse in limited snaps last year: on 36 coverage snaps, he allowed four catches for 71 yards, on five targets; he also allowed a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Mason Taylor versus Dallas (8% rostered)
Taylor started the season with an ankle injury, but he seems fully recovered now, as he’s become far more involved in the passing game in the last couple of weeks. His routes haven’t appreciably changed (95.7% of routes in week one, 100% last week), and his snap share actually decreased (87.5% in week one, 79.4% in week four). But his air yards went up last week, as he went from 33 air yards in weeks 1-3 combined to 61 this last week. His target volume also ticked up over the last two weeks, as he garnered 13 targets over the previous two games. Most notably, in a week with seventeen tight ends with double-digit days, he finished as TE11 without a touchdown, notching five catches for 65 yards. The Cowboys are a neutral matchup, so they don’t come into play here; he’s just a talented rookie who is getting more involved in his offense, and you can get on the train before it leaves the station.
