Fourteen of sixteen games are in the books (because of the stupid Monday Night Football doubleheader that should send Roger Goodell to The Hague), and we have a lot of week one narratives already dashed against the rocks. I guess the Lions are still good, huh? They made that abundantly clear. There are some major questions arising from week two that we need to investigate further, so let’s dive into this week’s Absurdity Check to find answers to some of the questions raised by Sunday’s action.
As always, all route, snap, targets, and carries data are from Nathan Jahnke’s invaluable report on Pro Football Focus. Salute to an absolute king.
Are our Bengals weapons in trouble?
Joe Burrow left the Jaguars-Bengals tilt, and reporters saw him on a foot scooter after suffering a toe injury on a second-quarter Arik Armstead sack. Burrow was later reportedly diagnosed with turf toe. We don’t have a ton of data for how long Burrow will miss, but Brock Purdy didn’t need a scooter, and he will be out at least two weeks for the 49ers. So, we have to look at at least the next two weeks.
First, let’s look back at 2023. Jake Browning started seven games last season, and in those games, he averaged 32 pass attempts at a 71.5% completion rate and 8.2 yards per attempt, scoring 11 touchdowns and throwing seven picks. That comes out to 267 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, and a pick per game in those contests. There were plenty of yards to go around. Unfortunately, it didn’t really spread around to the biggest weapons for the Bengals.
In those last seven games of the 2023 season, Ja’Marr Chase averaged five catches for 60 yards per game, scoring just one touchdown. He did have an injury, so those numbers are a bit skewed. His yards per target actually increased from 8.4 to 9.2 in that stretch run in 2023. Tee Higgins was also a bit concerning, as he averaged three catches for 66 yards with Browning, but he caught three touchdowns in those seven games. So, I do fear for the Bengals’ weapons, specifically Chase & Higgins (because Brown is probably immune to the downturn).
However, the question remains: what are we doing with them? Are we really benching Chase & Higgins? The answer: absolutely not, at least for Chase. Higgins is a slightly different story, and that has to do with the upcoming opponents.
The Bengals also have a tough stretch of games coming up, with the stingy Vikings, Broncos, Lions, and Packers defenses all on the slate, while Burrow suffers from his turf toe.
You can’t get away from Ja’Marr Chase in those games, but should Joe Burrow miss some or all of them, you can get away from Tee Higgins in two receiver leagues… and maybe even in three receiver leagues. This bodes extremely poorly for their prospects going forward.
UPDATE:
Is Rome Odunze WR1 in Chicago?
Through two games, the Chicago Bears aren’t quite the high-flying offense that many hoped they would become with Ben Johnson at the helm. Through two weeks, they’ve scored only 45 points and are averaging only 358 yards per game, a far cry from the anticipation in Johnson’s rookie head coach campaign. With this 0-2 start comes some questions about the wide receiver usage in this offense, as a lower ceiling means a lower expectation, which means that we likely only want to start one receiver from this offense.
In week two, Odunze outsnapped Moore 68-60, ran two more routes (39 to 37), and had four more targets (ten to six). The final box score reflected this difference, as Odunze finished with seven receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns. Moore, unfortunately, did not fare nearly as well, finishing with five catches for 46 yards. This is not a one-off, either, as this was a continuation of week one.
In week one, Odunze outsnapped Moore 63-56 (aided by a brief injury to DJ Moore), ran two more routes (again, aided by the Moore injury), and Odunze had nine targets to Moore’s five. A big catch saw Moore leading the two in yardage (68-37), but Odunze had six catches to Moore’s three, and scored the touchdown. Odunze had more opportunities, but a long catch for Moore gave him the yardage production edge in week one. In week two, that yardage edge did not hold.
DJ Moore went at pick 48 off the board (WR20), several rounds before Rome Odunze, who was pick 77 and WR35. However, for two weeks, the opposite setup would have been more appropriate for drafters. Rome Odunze is now the WR1, and DJ Moore drafters are—rightfully—in shambles.
Is Elic Ayomanor a must-add?
Short answer: yes.
Slightly longer answer: No, because if you listened to me, you would already have Elic Ayomanor rostered.
Through two games, you’d need a Hawkeye measurement system to see the differences between Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor on a usage basis. Ridley vastly outsnaps Ayomanor, getting 111 snaps through two games, compared to Ayomanor’s 93. Ridley also ran more routes than Ayomanor, running 69 routes in the first two games to Ayomanor’s 58. But, Ridley has just one more target, one more catch, and 15 more yards, with the difference in those coming in week one. In week two, they both had six targets, Ayomanor had four catches to Ridley’s three, and Ayomanor had 56 yards to Ridley’s 57. Also, Ayomanor has the touchdown, so he has more fantasy points than Ridley at this point in the season.
So, whatever you thought about Calvin Ridley, wherever you would have drafted him, you also have to regard Elic Ayomanor in the same general vicinity. He has Cam Ward’s only career passing touchdown thus far, and it appears that he is a preferred target for Ward in the passing game.
The upcoming Titans schedule is also favorable, as they play the Colts twice, the Cardinals, the Raiders, and the Patriots in five of their next six games. Only the Texans will prove to be a truly difficult out for the next month and a half, and as such, Ayomanor is a must-add in all fantasy football leagues as a real-life WR2 and fantasy football WR3.
