Week one of the NFL season is (mostly) in the books, and it has already been a doozy, especially for my priors! Let’s examine three key questions from week one to determine whether we should proceed with caution after just one week of data points, or adjust our approach and not overreact (I know how challenging that might be). Let’s dive into Week One’s Absurdity Check!
Is Bill Croskey-Merritt a Must-Start Back?
There has been a lot of JCM hype this last month or so, punctuated (I thought) by the Commanders trading Brian Robinson to the 49ers. He went from being an afterthought in best-ball drafts, where, if I wasn’t drafting him, then seemingly nobody was, to being a top-100 pick by the time draft season ended.
His first game was a money entrance into the NFL: 10 carries, 82 yards, and one touchdown. He led everyone in the game in rushing, and everyone but Deebo Samuel (on both sides) in total yards. But, according to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke (I’m only linking this once, but it will be the source of all my snaps and routes run data), Austin Ekeler was the bell cow, not Bill Croskey-Merritt. It is even better than that. Ekeler played 33 snaps to JCM’s 23, but Ekeler ceded ground to JCM as the game progressed, suggesting a changing of the guard. Jahnke writes:
“Ekeler started the game and took all 13 snaps in the first quarter. He was also the clear third-down and two-minute-drill back, which we expect for the rest of the season. However, from the second quarter until the end of the game, Croskey-Merritt took 22 snaps on early downs outside of the two-minute drills, compared to McNichols and Ekeler’s nine.”
So, we have a set role for Croskey-Merritt, at least in my eyes: he’s a two-down banger, at least for now. There is definitely a ton of value in that, especially in standard scoring leagues, where the lack of catch points downgrades PPR scam backs.
Still, it’s hard to endorse Croskey-Merritt next week full-throatedly. The Commanders get the Packers, who held the Lions down in week one, tying up Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery for 44 yards on 20 carries (2.2 yards per carry). I love his prospects for the future, but if I can sit JCM (say, 2 RB, no flex league), then I’ll probably stay away. It’s hard for me to say, however, that there are 28 or so better backs than JCM next week, so in leagues with a flex spot, I would fire up JCM, despite the stout opponent.
Is Zach Charbonnet the Running Back to Roster in Seattle?
This draft season, Kenneth Walker III was the back-to-draft pick in Seattle. He was RB15 off the board, pick 4.06 in 12-team leagues. And, through one game… he’s the RB2. Zach Charbonnet out-snapped Walker 30-to-21, and averaged just over 3.92 yards per carry, compared to Walker’s 2.0 flat yards per carry. Yards per carry isn’t everything, however, and despite the snap disparity, the touch volume still went Walker’s way.
Walker ultimately out-touched Charbonnet 13-12, with Walker getting three targets and 10 carries to Charbonnet’s 12 carries and zero targets. That means that Walker had the more valuable touches overall, as a catch is automatically worth the same amount as a ten-yard run in PPR. However, Charbonnet had the carries inside the ten, which led to the touchdown.
That being said, both backs will have value in the future, and the price you paid for them is currently irrelevant. Kenneth Walker is currently nursing an injury, but he has constantly been nursing an injury, so it’s not certain that he will take back over when healthy.
So, the answer is yes, and no. Zach Charbonnet is a back to roster in the Seattle backfield, but it appears from all measures that both backs are valuable players to have for Seattle. They failed to produce today, but the 49ers made their run defense a priority this offseason. Through one game, it paid off. If you have Zach Charbonnet, rejoice, this is much more of a split than we initially inspected. If you have KW3, don’t panic… yet.
Can We Start Daniel Jones in Week 2?
As I write this, Daniel Jones is the QB1 in fantasy points for Week 1 (but the Bills-Ravens game hasn’t been finalized yet) with 29.5 fantasy points on 272 passing yards, one passing touchdown, as well as 26 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Colts absolutely trounced the Dolphins, and it seems as though the Colts have their QB situation figured out with Daniel Jones, at least for now.
Jones is currently 7.7% rostered, according to FantasyPros. The question, however, is whether we should go out and get Daniel Jones and start him right away next week. Luckily, that is a resounding no, and an easy one, at that. The Colts don’t get a cupcake Miami Dolphins team that is somehow already spiraling the drain two weeks in a row. Next week, the Colts have a different test. They get a frustrated Denver Broncos team that somehow almost lost to the Tennessee Titans, and their primo defense, instead of the moribund Miami Dolphins.
I wouldn’t rush out to make Daniel Jones a priority add, no. However, the Colts have an upcoming schedule that could include some beatable matchups, with the Rams, Raiders, and Cardinals looming. However, I wouldn’t jettison anyone in a shallow league to speculate on Daniel Jones, and in deeper leagues, he’s probably already rostered. We’ve likely seen the best Jones has to offer this season.
