The long, cold darkness of the 2025 NFL offseason is over, and with the Eagles & Cowboys kicking off on Thursday Night Football, the NFL season is finally here. We’ve subsisted on scraps this offseason, listening to best-ball bros talk about their exposure percentage; we’ve caught hype trains (Bill Croskey-Merritt, anyone?) and missed others (RJ Harvey, we barely knew ye). But finally, the sun is cresting over the mountains of another NFL season, and with that daybreak, we have renewed hope and renewed optimism for our fantasy football teams.
Unfortunately, however, our glorious rosters, the ones destined to go undefeated en route to home league glory, will fail us. They will falter, and that’s okay. Nobody is perfect (except Bill Croskey-Merritt), we have sleepers available to scoop up before week one’s action who might be the hot waiver wire pickups going into week two. Let’s investigate three players at each position set to start the season strong, with two available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, and one available in at least 90% of Yahoo! leagues!
QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence at Carolina (50% rostered)
If you listened to the Football Absurdity Podcast this offseason, you would have heard me wax poetic about the Liam Coen offense, which focuses on quick strikes to YAC machines, letting them do the hard work downfield. We saw it work with Baker Mayfield last season, and I believe it will work again with another underwhelming #1 overall pick? Well, that may or may not happen (I think it will), but they get an incredibly soft landing with the Panthers.
While we can’t take last year’s statistics as gospel, they paint a rosy picture for the Jags’ passing game: Carolina allowed the second-highest completion percentage over expectation last year, while pressuring the quarterback at the second-lowest rate. This led to them allowing the 13th-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns, and garnering the eighth-fewest interceptions last year (4043/35/9), roughly equivalent to Sam Darnold’s QB9 2025 season.
Geno Smith at New England (22% rostered)
The new-look Raiders with Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, Geno Smith, and Ashton Jeanty aren’t the same squad that floundered around the league last season. They get a decent first test with Patriots lifer and Rob Riggle cosplayer Mike Vrabel and the Patriots. The Pats were a woeful defense last season, and spent a ton in free agency to rectify that issue. They still have a long way to go to get back to a team I shy away from, so I’ll take the Raiders’ new QB on his maiden voyage.
The Patriots had the fourth-lowest pressure rate and the fourth-fewest interceptions last season, while allowing the fifth-highest adjusted net yards per attempt and the tenth-most touchdowns. Like Lawrence and Coen, the Carroll-Geno Raiders get a soft landing in week one.
Joe Flacco versus Cincinnati (4% rostered)
The Browns will be without The Bad Man all season long. Honestly, Joe Flacco isn’t the worst guy to have helming the squad, especially when the options are Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders (he can’t process at the speed of an NFL game; he could barely process the speed of the NCAA level, get off my back). Flacco didn’t have the best 2024 campaign, but in the weeks he played, he still performed exceptionally well.
Flacco started six games last year, and in those six games, he had 265.5 passing yards per game, on 7.18 yards per attempt, while averaging 1.7 touchdowns and 1.2 picks per game. While that isn’t super impressive (just QB20 in points per game with those statistics), the Bengals are a complete mess on defense, with Shemar Stewart and Trey Hendrickson missing a chunk of training camp, precluding them from improving on their bottom-ten passing unit from 2024. Flacco’s return to Cleveland should start with a bang, going up against this subpar defensive unit.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Cedric Tillman versus Cincinnati (23% rostered)
The Broncos are bereft of weapons, with Jerry Jeudy & David Njoku leading the way in a mostly unremarkable receiving corps. But Cedric Tillman looms; the former third-round pick drew comps to a player somewhat familiar to Ol’ Joe Flacco. Michael Pittman and Joe Flacco could go back to that get-up-and-get-it profile in his second stint with the Browns, especially since the Browns are consistently among the league leaders in plays run. They will likely also be without rookie Quinshon Judkins, which means that more opportunities will end up distributed throughout the offense, further raising Tillman’s ceiling.
Cedric Tillman also had a mini-breakout last season, playing over 80% of snaps in weeks 7-11 before going down with an injury in week 12. In those four games, Tillman averaged 10 targets, six receptions, 75.5 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. While I doubt he maintains his 102-catch, 1284-yard, 13-touchdown pace from those four games, he should still have plenty to contribute in Joe Flacco’s return to Cleveland, against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL.
Elic Ayomanor at Denver (4% rostered)
The Titans took Ayomanor with a fourth-round selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. Usually, this is a death knell for receivers in their rookie season (day three receivers have a sub-2% rate of top-36 fantasy rookie seasons, compared to 20% of receivers who go on day one and two). However, Elic Ayomanor garnered a second-round grade from multiple Football Absurdity folks, and he has a starting receiver role locked down in Tennessee, at least to start the season.
Ayomanor and fellow rookie Cam Ward get a tricky landing against a stout Broncos defense, but Ayomanor doesn’t shy away from competition. His collegiate claim to fame was destroying Heisman winner (and second overall pick) Travis Hunter last season. While the Broncos’ defense is strong, Ayomanor has strong hands and plays all the way up to his size and space.
Pat Bryant versus Tennessee (4% rostered)
Much like Ayomanor, Pat Bryant makes his NFL debut in Mile High on Sunday, and like Ayomanor, Bryant is set to have a significant role in the Broncos’ passing game right away. While Evan Engram is likely to soak up a ton of targets, Pat Bryant garnered lavish praise from Sean Payton, who compared Bryant to Michael Thomas. Bryant is expected to get a lot of usage right out of the gate, as the Broncos traded Devaughn Vele to the Saints to clear up room in the receiving corps.
The Titans are a better pass defense than most people would give them credit for, as they allowed the tenth-lowest net yards per pass attempt last season, and were middle of the pack in terms of EPA/pass attempt. However, they were one of the worst teams at garnering pressure (fifth-lowest quarterback pressure rate). The Broncos have one of the stoutest offensive lines in the league (the lowest quarterback pressure rate allowed in 2024), so Bo Nix should have plenty of time to work the ball to his weapons, including Pat Bryant in his rookie campaign.
RUNNING BACKS
Jerome Ford/Dylan Sampson versus Cincinnati (47%/40% rostered)
At this point, I might need to point out that the Chorus Creator Incubator Program is not paying me $8000 a month to hype up the Cleveland Browns; I’m not that willing to fall for it all on my own. Quinshon Judkins, the once and future(?) starting running back for the Browns, still doesn’t have a contract, which means that it will be the Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson show in Cleveland, and they will each offer something different in this matchup that will prove to be a shoot-out.
Jerome Ford is your floor play, the guy you go after if you need to ensure that you get some points from your running back slot. He is unlikely to do much of note, as he is just a placeholder that holds your fantasy football roster together. Dylan Sampson is your home run swing if your opponent started Javonte Williams, for example. We don’t know how much he will be able to handle in the league, and we don’t know how much the Browns trust him, so Sampson could get you two fantasy points or 20. As I’ve already outlined multiple times in this, the Bengals defense is a nightmare, and this should be a shoot-out at the Mistake By The Lake.
Ollie Gordon II at Indianapolis (34% rostered)
The Miami running back room fell apart in a hurry, with Jaylen Wright (leg) doubtful for this one, and De’Von Achane (calf) likely to play, but also likely to be limited. That means Ollie Gordon will have a chance to continue his preseason success. The Colts were a run funnel defense last season, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and with their massive free agent Mooney Ward acquisition, likely, teams will rush even more against the Colts. Gordon might get limited touches, but the Colts allowed the third-most 10+ yard rushes last season, so limited touches might be all that he needs.
Woody Marks at L.A. Rams (9% rostered)
This is a tough avenue of attack right out of the gate, as Marks was one of my favorite later-round rookie running backs to snag… alongside Jaydon Blue, who was a healthy scratch on Thursday Night Football. So, it’s entirely possible that this blows up in my face as Marks ends up a healthy scratch in the Nick Chubb/Dameon Pierce/Dare Ogunbowale/Woody Marks backfield.
But, look at that backfield… sheesh, that is a mess. Chubb is more name than game at this point, Pierce should focus on returning kicks, and Ogunbowale is a third-down specialist. That leaves Marks with a path to relevance in his first week in the NFL, as he takes over as the most dynamic back in the room. The Rams are a soft landing spot for him, as they tied for the tenth-highest RYOE/att to running backs last year. So, Marks could be a week-winning Hail Mary… Or, he could be a healthy scratch.
TIGHT ENDS
Brenton Strange versus Carolina (22% rostered)
The new-look Jaguars jettisoned Gabriel Davis, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram, who accounted for 153 targets last season. They added Travis Hunter, but there’s no way the two-way star can gobble up all those targets, so some are likely headed Strange’s direction. Brenton Strange finished last year with only 53 targets, but played over 80% of snaps just two times (16 targets, 15 catches, 97 yards, and a score in those two games) last season. He’s now the TE1 in Jacksonville, and he should get an opportunity to produce with Liam Coen.
The Panthers are a primo landing spot for Strange, as they were, on a per-target basis, the best matchup in the league for tight ends, allowing 2.3 fantasy points per target, the most in the NFL. Strange’s ceiling is capped, however, as he is the clear #3 target behind Brian Thomas Jr. & Travis Hunter. Still, the Jaguars are set to steamroll the Panthers, so there is a lot up for grabs for Strange.
Darren Waller at Indianapolis (12% rostered)
Darren Waller is another player stepping into a huge vacated target load, with Jonnu Smith heading to Pittsburgh via trade. The Dolphins tapped Waller to come out of retirement to replace Jonnu, who had an insane volume down the stretch. In the last eight games of 2024, he averaged 8.4 targets, 7 receptions, and 67 yards, scoring seven touchdowns during that span. If he steps into 80% of that role, then he should immediately matter for fantasy football. Worse players than Waller have mattered, so it’s not so crazy.
The Colts are the third-best matchup entering the season, as they allowed the 2.05 fantasy points per target to tight ends last season. Should Miami go toward Waller, he could be a week winner.
Mike Gesicki at Cleveland (7% rostered)
The Bengals made returning Mike Gesicki a huge priority this offseason, signing him before Tee Higgins or Trey Hendrickson. Gesicki is always my big man crush at tight end because he is out there running so dang many routes all the time. He’s a horrendous blocker to the point that the Bengals told him to stop trying, and they have him run out of the slot most of the time (fifth-most TE slot snaps last year). He is also a medium-range weapon, with the eleventh-highest average depth of target and the tenth-most air yards among tight ends last year.
Gesicki is also a key part of their passing game, as he had the seventh-most first-read targets among tight ends last year. He was incredibly involved in the passing game, finishing top-ten in both receptions and touchdowns, but he scored only two touchdowns, which kept him out of the top-fifteen at the position. The Browns and Bengals are set up for a shootout, and getting a tight end who will be highly involved in his offense in a shootout is prime territory for a huge game, especially going up against a Browns team that ranked eighth in fantasy points per target to tight ends last season.
