The running joke on the Football Absurdity Podcast is that the Colts will always get the eighteenth-best quarterback in the league and think that it will lead them to the playoffs. Well, the joke’s on us; they now have two quarterbacks outside of the top sixteen at the position, and they hope that either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson will lead them to the promised land. With hype trains derailing, sleepers snoozing, and bargains hiding in plain sight, Indy’s roster is a minefield of ADP misfires and breakout potential. Before you set your queue, let’s figure out the underdrafted, overdrafted, and sleeper player for the 2025 Indianapolis Colts!
Overdrafted:
Tyler Warren, Tight End (TE11, Pick 116 Overall)
Warren and fellow rookie tight end Colston Loveland both went in the first half of the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. And I have to say, despite liking Warren more predraft, I love Loveland’s spot a lot more. Don’t get me wrong, Warren is a beast on the football field. He’s massive and athletic, with soft hands and good speed. He is also tough to bring down and plays with an insanely high motor and effort on every play. He has excellent contact balance, but isn’t a big speedster or a very elusive guy. He primarily relies on going through would-be tacklers, instead of around them.
The test results are in, and Tyler Warren has #thatdog in him. He’s swinging it all over the field, as he is a massive and athletic tight end who dominates whatever assignment is given to him on a football field. He has soft hands and good speed, blasting through would-be tacklers and pinballing his way all over the field to make sure that if his team loses, it’s not going to be through a lack of his effort. Warren redefines high motor as every play is him attempting to physically and mentally dominate the competition.
Unfortunately, I don’t like the landing spot for Warren this year. It was the predestined outcome, but this team needs to figure out its quarterback situation before I can care about the opportunity that Tyler Warren will get. The Colts threw the ball the fifth-fewest times in the league last year, and they already have a crowded offense, with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, A.D. Mitchell, Alec Pierce, and Jonathan Taylor already garnering targets. He will likely be ahead of Mitchell and Pierce, but you’re still chopping up limited targets too many ways for Warren to have draftable fantasy football upside in his rookie season.
Underdrafted:
Michael Pittman, Wide Receiver (WR47, Pick 105 Overall)
The flip side of the Tyler Warren skepticism is my enthusiasm about Pittman. Michael Pittman is going five picks earlier than Downs, and when they shared the field last season, Downs was slightly ahead. In the 13 games they played together last year, Downs had 2 PPR points per game, 0.7 targets, 0.6 catches, and 1.3 yards per game more than Pittman, while scoring twice as many touchdowns. It’s a slight difference, but it’s enough to get people all hot and bothered for Josh Downs.
This is probably because they’re forgetting that Michael Pittman played through a literal broken back last season. Pittman previously showed that he is the offensive focus, averaging 100 catches, 1096 yards, and 5 touchdowns per season over the previous three years, on 149 targets per season. When both are at full strength, I am going to take the 6’4” 223-pound alpha playstyle stud over the 5’9” 171 slot jitterbug. I don’t hate Downs, and he has value as a PPR scam player, but I vastly prefer Michael Pittman.
Sleeper:
Anthony Richardson, Quarterback (QB25, Pick 172 Overall)
It’s looking like the incumbent is going to keep control of this quarterback room in Indianapolis, as Richardson has reportedly improved as a thrower, and Daniel Jones has, unfortunately, remained Daniel Jones. If it’s 51/49 towards Richardson, they are going to give him a chance to prove them right, so just a little nudge will get the Colts to lean towards Richardson.
Richardson is saying all the right things, after learning the correct lesson from Daniel Jones’ arrival: “even if they brought Tom Brady in here… I’d just have to work to beat him out.” Saying the right thing and doing the right thing are two different things, and hopefully, he can redeem himself in his team’s eyes from the self-benching for being tired last season.
If Richardson gets the role, then he should at least return to his previous ways. In his games where he played over 30% of snaps, Richardson averaged 19 PPR points, thanks to his 81 rushing yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. That would have been QB10 last season; the only thing holding down his ADP is the QB battle. If he takes the lead in preseason, then you could get a must-start quarterback at a lower price than a handcuff running back.
