The Jets hit the reset button this offseason, jettisoning the entire coaching staff, Aaron Rodgers, and various other odds and ends. They paid Garrett Wilson & Sauce Gardner, snagged Justin Fields, and put together a Lions East Philosophy for the squad. Will that garner success, or at least fantasy football success? Let’s dive into the 2025 New York Jets!
Overdrafted:
Breece Hall, Running Back (RB14, Pick 37 Overall)
Sleeper:
Braelon Allen, Running Back (RB53, Pick 163 Overall)
I’m combining these two because they’ll be closer together at season’s end than they are in our draft order. The Jets imported the Lions system with new OC Tanner Engstrand and HC Aaron Glenn. They’re easily translatable onto Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, though Breece Hall is no Jahmyr Gibbs & Braelon Allen is no David Montgomery. Hall finished last year as RB17 in fantasy points per game, while getting the tenth-most weighted opportunities in the league (18th in carries, 3rd in targets). The targets will decrease, as Justin Fields is a tad bit more mobile than Justin Fields, who will run instead of dump off when the play breaks down.
Justin Fields had a 14.3% checkdown rate last year, which was top-five, but that number was just 9.5% in the three years prior. He also scrambled or ended up sacked at an extremely high rate. 22.8% of his dropbacks ended in a sack or a scramble across the last four seasons; he was fifth, first, and fifth in scrambles in 2021, 2022, and 2023. If you look at his games as a starter in 2024, and pro-rate his 18 scrambles across an entire season, he would have ranked second last year with 51 scrambles. So, I see Breece Hall’s targets going down. That’s enough to push him down to the RB18-20 range for me.
As for Braelon Allen, it wasn’t that long ago that folks had themselves in a tizzy about his size and speed combination. If he gets the David Montgomery/Jamaal Williams role, then he should be a powerful goal-line back, a role that he did not have last season. He can start as a touchdown-based flex play, but he makes for a perfect thunder to Breece Hall’s lightning.
Underdrafted:
Justin Fields, Quarterback (QB11, Pick 98 Overall)
The Jets parted ways with a future Hall of Famer this offseason and replaced him with Justin Fields. While I doubt that Justin Fields can replicate the talent and upside of Jordan Travis, he provides an interesting alternative.
The Jets gave Justin Fields a 2/$40 million deal, with only journeyman Tyrod Taylor as his backup. They intend to have Fields play a full seventeen games this year, if he can do it. We last saw Fields ceding his starting spot to Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh. Before losing his job to Mr. Unlimited, Fields averaged a paltry 184 passing yards, 0.8 passing touchdowns, and 0.2 interceptions per game, throwing it 27 times per game at a 66.3% completion percentage. However, his rushing: 9.2 attempts for 38.5 yards per game, is where you find his fantasy football appeal.
At the time of Fields’ benching, he was QB8 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.2 per contest. He had 55 carries, 19 of them scrambles, which were both tied for fourth among quarterbacks at that time. He was on pace for 655 rushing yards and fourteen rushing touchdowns. He was a fantasy football force, but his passing and the veteran presence left a lot to be desired for Mike Tomlin.
That’s always been the story with Justin Fields, in fact: over his career, just over 44% of his fantasy points have come through running the ball. It’s what led him to QB5 and QB9 finishes in his second and third seasons, despite throwing the ball 25 times per game at a 61% completion percentage, for 172 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game in those seasons. Averaging over 64 rushing yards per game will do that for you.
So, you have a quarterback who has produced top-ten numbers wherever and whenever he has played, despite bottoming out as a passer. He also has zero competition for snaps in the QB room and provides for an excellent upside play.
