The Atlanta Falcons certainly did it the hard way last offseason, spending $100 million on Kirk Cousins before taking Michael Penix with a top-ten pick in the draft. In the end, neither quarterback blew the doors off, leaving them with more questions than answers in the passing game as they head into 2025. As such, everyone is being… very cautious… about the Falcons’ chances this season. Let’s dive into the Falcons’ over- and under-drafted players.
Overdrafted:
Darnell Mooney, Wide Receiver (WR49, Pick 113 Overall)
Darnell Mooney is probably going to miss significant time this season. My post-hype sleeper suffered an injury in camp and was promptly replaced by DJ Chark. This suggests that the Falcons view his injury as a long-term issue, and that puts his redraft viability in doubt.
Darnell Mooney was a fun breakout last season, finishing as WR34 in PPR leagues. He was a massive boon for people who took him at his ADP (WR68, pick 192 overall). He had the tenth-most deep targets last season (24), en route to 107 targets, 64 receptions, 992 yards, and five touchdowns.
While Mooney paid back his price last season, paying that price again is a fool’s errand. He was a volume merchant, finishing outside the top fifty in fantasy points per target. Unfortunately, given that Michael Penix seemingly only has eyes for Drake London (London was the only player with more than 12 targets in Penix’s three starts last year), paying his price in 2025 isn’t something I find myself doing, especially given the players going around him.
Underdrafted:
Michael Penix, Quarterback (QB22, Pick 142 Overall)
Penix made three starts last season and averaged 33.3 passing attempts, 247 yards, one pick, one touchdown, all on a 58.1% completion percentage. He threw only 105 passes, but somehow managed to have five danger plays, according to PlayerProfiler’s reckoning. To put that in perspective, his 105 pass attempts, with five danger plays, prorated across 17 games, would have resulted in 28 danger plays, ranking fifth behind Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, and (30)… Kirk Cousins (35).
It’s worth noting that Will Levis had a 10% danger throw rate, which is, quite frankly, hilarious.
Here’s the problem with Michael Penix, as I see it. He has a small sample size that was pockmarked with incredibly questionable throws that he was able to pull off against some of the worst pass defenses in the league. He played the Commanders, the Panthers, and the Giants. The Panthers and Giants allowed the 2nd and 4th most ANY/A last year, the 2nd and 4th highest CPOE, the first and third highest QB rating allowed, the third and fourth highest catchable ball rate, and the fourth and fifth highest yards per attempt. The Giants allowed a lot of pressure, but the Panthers had the lowest pressure rate, and the Commanders had the sixth-lowest.
Penix threw for 257 passing yards, a TD & an INT per game in those contests.
This is where I struggle to evaluate Penix. He had the softest landing imaginable, with two of the last three teams also playing out the string with two of the softest passing defenses in the league.
Of the 46 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes last season, Penix ranked 43rd in completion percentage, 16th in yards per attempt, 42nd in accurate throw rate, BUT, he is second in aDOT (!), fourth in hero plays, and 45th in checkdown rate.
This tells me that Michael Penix is a classic gunslinger. He could experience some high highs and some low lows, depending on the defenses he faces. Ultimately, however, I have very little interest in him for 2025 fantasy football leagues.
But I am excited for what he can do to elevate the passing game options around him. You can throw a lot of picks, but if you’re throwing for 250 yards per game, you can elevate the fantasy options around you.
He’s not viable in 1QB leagues, but Michael Penix will start every game for the Falcons, barring injury, making him an ideal 2QB second quarterback.
Sleeper:
Nobody?
Everyone is being extremely cautious about the Atlanta Falcons this season, and with good reason. I could put Tyler Allgeier here, but that’s entirely contingent on Bijan Robinson’s health. I was going to put Kyle Pitts, but I am not an abject sicko. If you want to believe in Kyle Pitts, then go for it. But there’s a saying where I’m from: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, you can’t get fooled again. Fool me thrice, now we’re cookin’.
