The 2024 NFL season went about as well as reasonably expected for the Detroit Lions, right up until they ran into the Washington Commanders in the playoffs and Jayden Daniels punched their ticket to Cabo early. Then, the brain drain began, headlined by the loss of their OC, Ben Johnson, to the Bears and their DC, Aaron Glenn, to the Jets. Receivers coach Antwaan Randle El & assistant quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett joined Johnson in Chicago. They also lost DL coach Terrell Williams to the Patriots, and passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand & tight ends coach Steve Heiden, along with assistant DL coach Cameron Davis, joined Aaron Glenn in New York.
So, on the field, this is a team with a lot of continuity, but the coordinators will be vastly different. The Lions promoted internally, as their linebackers coach is now the DC, but Denver’s passing game coordinator (John Morton) is the new OC. I have to imagine that Dan Campbell brought him in preaching “if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it,” but without Ben Johnson, we likely won’t have the truly unhinged playcalling that we’ve seen for the Lions lately. Although we have a reasonably accurate understanding of the Lions’ capabilities at this point, there are still some discrepancies between the team’s ADP and reality, and we can capitalize on these.
Overdrafted:
David Montgomery, Running Back (RB22, Pick 58 Overall)
My Ranking: RB24
AND
Underdrafted:
Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back (RB3, Pick 5 Overall)
My Ranking RB1
This is a twofer, as the two backs exist in tandem with each other; one growing necessitates the other taking a step back.
While I am not as down on David Montgomery as I thought I would be, I want to give a caveat that David Montgomery is a downwardly mobile RB24. There are several players behind him who will likely leapfrog him; it’s just uncertain which of the rookies will secure a role at this point.
I fear for David Montgomery after we saw a fully-actualized Jahmyr Gibbs last season, as Montgomery missed three games last year, and Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 21.3 carries, 4.3 receptions, 162.4 yards, and two touchdowns per game. While I will take the under on his 2,759-yard, 32-touchdown pace from those three games, the Lions let the genie out of the bottle, and it might prove challenging to jam him back in there.
We’ve already seen this diminished role, as David Montgomery had just eight touches in their playoff loss to Washington, despite the Lions putting up 31 points. It feels as though we’ve reached a changing of the guard, and David Montgomery’s price does not reflect that.
There are concerns about Frank Ragnow leaving, which could cause issues for Gibbs & Montgomery. Gibbs averaged 5.5+ yards per carry up the middle (Ragnow plays) and off end and tackle (non-Ragnow plays). Montgomery averaged 4.2 yards per carry in both splits; no, Ragnow does not concern me, given how the statistics bear out, but it is something to consider. A step back at the position could lead to a philosophical change, causing the cheap David Montgomery goal-line touchdowns to dry up as they pass on the goal line with increased frequency.
Sleeper:
Jared Goff, Quarterback (QB15, Pick 109 Overall)
My Ranking: QB11
As I mentioned in the introduction, we are primarily working along the margins to find value here for the Lions, and Jared Goff is a starting fantasy football quarterback. Goff finished last season as QB7in fantasy points per game, finishing with 4,629 passing yards and 37 touchdowns. The only things that changed about his situation were losing Frank Ragnow and losing Ben Johnson, and that is enough to put him twice as far back as his finish, behind guys like Justin Fields (QB11), Caleb Williams (QB12), Dak Prescott (QB13), and Justin Herbert (QB14).
Goff hit his stride in the fantasy playoffs last season (notably when the Lions did not have David Montgomery for 2 of 3 games), and finished as QB2, QB3, and QB8 in those games, in shootouts with Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco. Jared Goff won’t do that, but even if everything else stayed the same, or took a slight step back, there is no way that he finishes as anything but a QB1 this season. He finished third in 3+ touchdown games last year, with seven, and was second in 300+ passing yard games. He doesn’t run, so many people want to marginalize him, but I can’t do that to the same extent as others. He’s a starting fantasy quarterback, and one that you can get outside the top-100 picks.
